The Question:
@Choppodong asked our coaches/staff/writers a single question. He gives their answer to you in the order in which the key tip returned…
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What single tip would you offer beginners and intermediate DFS players?
Their Answer, or Tip:
Eric (MMA) – If your are playing a slate that includes Thursday game, I normally fade it. Ownerships are always inflated too high. You have a bigger edge if you avoid the game.
Trey (EPL) – My biggest tip I would say would be to try and analyze gameflow for each matchup and to write down your analysis. Then, look at it again the next day and see if you still agree with it. Sometimes we talk ourselves into certain situations and try justifying it from the end rather than letting the story tell us the endgame. Biases are real and we gotta ditch that.
PVAaron (Kickers Corner, eSports) – Use the tools and advice you gain to find the player you are. Not every system or way of playing is right for every person. Know your goals and play it smart until you find what it is that can get you to where you want to be. Don’t force yourself to play like someone else if your style doesn’t fit that one person.
Fighton (WNBA, NFL) – As a tournament player and back to what we were talking about, I think a big key is weighing the risk/reward of certain players to their expected ownerships. At some ownership level, every player is fadeable even Leveon against Cleveland because the risk of playing them, and having them bust, can absolutely screw you. If you can understand the tradeoff there, you can find the riskier chalk (not Leveon) plays that everyone is touting and gain an edge.
Texan0322 (4 star general, admin, smartass) – My only advice would be “Don’t get locked in a dark room alone with Choppodong” and followed it up with this when I asked for at least one tip… My tip is just the tip. Works every time.
Thanks for that, Tex. #WellPlayed
Brody (Schnarr’s Super Picks, PGA) – My biggest advice would be: Spend the time reflecting on your lineups and looking at your thought process compared to consistent winners. It’s important to understand why others are making the decisions they are making. Finding out what is working for them (and what is not working) will improve your own decisions and increase your results.
Kevin aka Ffootballgeek (5 star general, NFL/MMA, Domination Station) – Each sport requires a slightly different approach in this regard but there are some consistencies across all sports in the DFS spectrum. The key to cash lineups is consistency and floor. In MMA as an example, we often sacrifice a roster spot by stacking both sides of a fight that we believe can result in a high total score. That type of strategy will almost never result in a GPP win but it’s the smart play in cash simply because we aren’t going for a top score. That is a fairly extreme sport and scenario but it pushes the point of how critical it is to treat cash different then GPP. Since we are approaching the NFL season, I’ll point to something I often discuss in my writing and pods which is proven by the stats. I’ve always said to avoid players on the road in your cash games. They are simply less consistent then home field team, particularly home team favorites. There can be exceptions to every rule but this one won’t have many exceptions for me outside of the classic injury fill in punt RB’s. This does not mean we shouldn’t ever use players on the road. That’s absurd. Just not in our cash lineup. Home team players, particularly favorites, are simply more consistent. Taking that to the next level, the RB position is more consistent as a rule then other positions, therefore in cash games it’s wise to pay up for consistent RB’s that are not gameflow dependent. We want to account for all potential eventualities in our cash lineup and build it for resilience. I don’t want an RB that will only be successful when their team is playing with the lead because, even if a team is favored there is a scenario in which they are losing and playing from behind. I don’t want too much exposure to any one game because if its a complete dud you will lose. We want to use consistent players in our flex spots (RB’s). In GPP’s on the other hand we actually want to get a little more creative with the players and how we construct our lineups. Rather than a resilient lineup, we want an elastic lineup. I want my players to pull one another along. Thats where we try and build in correlation. The QB/WR stack. QB-WR-RB stacks can lock you in to almost all of the scoring for a particular team. If you nail the team that scores 40+ that week.. all three will often benefit together. Pairing up DST with a K is another nice correlation play in GPP’s. Moreso, in GPP’s we want to find potentially good situations that the other DFSers will be off. Looking at week one of this upcoming season we have a game with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home facing Seattle. Most people see Seattle and automatically think to avoid the offense facing them. The savvy GPP player should be thinking about getting Rodgers, Nelson and/or Adams at depressed ownership levels. My point in all of this is to make sure your mentality and approach to the two different contest types are focused on the very different techniques required to be successful.
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DFSnDonuts (Weekend Warriors, Pitchers Paradise, etc) – The single biggest tip I have for a beginner or intermediate player in NFL is to pay attention to correlation to maximize your lineup potential. RB with a DEF, QB with a WR, QB with a WR1 and opposing WR1 etc…It isn’t always who has the best research and information for NFL. Applying it correctly is more important in NFL than any other sport.
Burns (Analytics Corner) – NFL DFS lineup creation is an art and a science behind the numbers, find the correlational balance and you can create solid winning lineups for both cash and GPPs. Keep Grinding Army and Good Luck this NFL DFS Season!
Keith aka Boomersdaddy (tools, podcast, NBA/MLB) – Don’t chase. When it comes to dfs the GPP prize pools have got outrageous. NFL GPPs are freaking huge. But for beginners and intermediate players still learning what there strengths are, the tournaments like the millionaire maker and others are extremely difficult to return a consistent ROI from. Play the smaller tournaments. The less people your playing, the more give you have for your lineup to still return a solid profit. I would rather see beginners play their gpp budget in the smaller tournaments then in the bigger tournaments chasing the life changing money. Which seeing the possibility can be enticing and overwhelming to compete with.
da6292 (Free Squares) – As we approach the Fantasy Football season I would say my number one piece of advice would be to get locked into the Vegas Odds especially team implied totals. The implied total takes in to account so much information that it is the first place I like to start my research and also the last place I check to see if there has been any significant line movement. We can also start to get a good feel of where ownership is going to go with regards to how high of an implied total a team has. It does not matter if you are a cash player, or a GPP player, you need to be in tune to the Vegas odds all week long. As a cash player you can look to target some players on the highest implied total teams while as a GPP player we can look to try and fade some of the higher owned players and maybe find some teams with a higher implied run total who may be lower owned. Now if you have been playing DFS for any time you know following Vegas isn’t rocket science but I think people try to do too much on their own when Vegas is spending and taking in millions of dollars and has a number already set with so much information built in. If you ask any of the top players, you can guarantee they are locked into the Vegas odds all week and adjust accordingly to how the lines change throughout the week.
Taco (PGA, Nascar, tools) – While it’s not advice that our product really has an answer for, the best advice for intermediate players (who do massive multi entry) is to monitor player exposure with other players/positions. Having 50% exposure to a chalk guy is a decent hedge, but if you have him in 100% of lineups with another player, you’re not as hedged as you may think. It’s something to police when using optimizers as a lot of them do this with chalky guys. Hopefully, it’s something we’ll be able to add to the dom station in the future. Also, calculate exposure based on $$$, not lineups, especially with a 20 entry max on most low entry contests.
Choppodong (NFL, MLB, NHL, bankroll/contest selection coach) – Discipline! There are a lot of factors that go into DFS, but the single most important factor in my opinion is DISCIPLINE!! This game is fun. It’s exciting to go for the big money. But, this is a game with long term skill and short term luck. The only way you ride out the short term luck long enough to realize the long term skill is through discipline. Carve out your system, and stick to it. No excuses. All of us have growth curves of different lengths. The common denominator to all the successful coaches and players in the DFS Army is discipline. Some had it the whole time. Some developed it over the course of time. But, they all have it. It’s easy to get off track and change the levels at which you play. It’s easy to want to run with the big dogs. But, discipline keeps you on track for YOUR goals. The rest will come, if at first you learn discipline.
Al Walsh (NBA, MLB, podcasts, player notes) – Don’t come into this game with high expectations. If you’re reading this, you know (or think you know) sports in an advanced way of thinking, but this game is filled with nerds who have the most analytical-driven devices known to man. If you want to be one of the elite, be willing to put in the time it takes to be great. If not, you’re going to get frustrated VERY fast.
Last Tip
Consider joining our community via the link above. Most players will redeposit money an average of 2.83 times through this NFL season. Our goal is to ensure you are well under that average. If every aspiring golf pro has his own coach, isn’t it time you considered getting one, too, but for your DFS game?
For those that read this far, use code CHOP for a 10% discount across the lifetime of your membership, and I’ll see you inside. Let’s get better together!