Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

Research Notebook – Fanduel Advice for MLB DFS on Monday, August 14th

This article is going to mesh what my normal notebook of research would look like with the presentation in a more articulate demonstration. Trust me, you don’t want to lay your eyes on my notebook. It resembles my toddler’s “drawings” of me and her mother. This “research notebook” will also give you a look into my personal process as a full-time guaranteed prize pool (GPP) competitor. Try not to get lost in the minutia of the numbers and enjoy the deep data dive. By the end, you will have a nice insider peek at my player pool for the main slate.

NYM@NYY

Luis Cessa has pretty strong reverse splits and has struggled against right-handed batters for the past two seasons. Over the past month against right-handed pitchers, Yoenis Cespedes has a .383 wOBA and .278 ISO while Wilmer Flores has a .424 wOBA and .268 ISO. They represent a solid mini-stack batting third and fifth in the lineup. I wouldn’t think twice about adding Granderson and Conforto, or even Dominic Smith for that matter, into a larger three or four man stack. The most optimal approach would be to roll Flores and Cespedes for smaller contests and mini-GPP’s.

Play Didi Gregorius and his .483 wOBA and .351 ISO against right-handed pitchers over the past month. He is also batting cleanup and only has an 11.1% strikeout rate. He’s an exceptional one-off because he also has a pretty solid ceiling. I am fading the rest of the offense

TBR@TOR

Opposing right-handed pitcher, Nick Tepesch, looks completely overmatched this season. In his two starts, opposing batters have a 47% hard hit rate, 95 MPH average exit velocity, and a 240-foot average batted ball distance. He actually has given up a mind boggling 12 total runs in his six innings but six of them were unearned in his first appearance that only lasted 1.2 innings. Target Longoria, Morrison, and Souza.

Jake Odorizzi has given up a 40% hard hit rate over his past three starts and Josh Donaldson has four career home runs (5-for-20 BvP) against him. This makes Donaldson a must start, right? I would say in large GPP’s he’s a decent one-off but I am off the Blue Jays offense entirely. Odorizzi has only allowed more than three runs just twice in his last fifteen starts.

SFG@MIA

Buster Posey has a .486 wOBA and .280 ISO versus left-handed pitchers over the last month and bats cleanup. Nick Hundley has a .451 wOBA and .353 ISO against lefties this month and has only struck out one time in those 19 at-bats. They are a nice mini-stack and will likely be under owned.

I will continue to play Giancarlo Stanton as a one-off every single slate. He has nine home runs in his last nine games. He’s a lock.

CIN@CHC

The Reds have a nice opportunity to provide some solid large field GPP upside. Other than that I would completely fade them. If rolling out multiple lineups in a larger GPP target the Reds right-handed bats (who I think are overpriced as a stack and would much rather go with the Rays). Cozart, Duvall, and Suarez complete this stack.

Asher Wojciechowski has done well enough in a starting role for me to fade the Cubs and their 5.7 implied run total (IRT). I’ll save my money for Coors Field.

DET@TEX

Martin Perez has been struggling against right-handed hitters for the past month. Over those 116 right-handed batters he’s faced, he has only struck out 7.8% of them. They have a .407 wOBA and .294 ISO with a 32% fly ball rate against him. The Tigers lineup will likely have nine righties and represent a fantastic stacking opportunity. Against left-handed pitchers in the past month, Ian Kinsler has a .408 wOBA and .276 ISO, Mikie Mahtook has a .368 wOBA and .233 ISO, Justin Upton has a .557 wOBA and .552 ISO, and Nicholas Castellanos has a .512 wOBA and .529 ISO. If John Hicks starts I love using him as a nice upside cheaper punt type catcher.

Michael Fulmer was chugging along and having a really nice season until his last two starts where he has been blasted for 13 earned runs in just 8.2 innings pitched. I am going to tread lightly and fade the Rangers today as there are other offenses I trust more. If you want Texas exposure today go with the lefties. Choo, Mazara, Gallo, and Odor all are having a good month against right-handed pitching. None of them are cash viable.

ATL@COL

I know the Braves will be semi-popular offense today just because they’re in Coors but their projected starting lineup has a .288 wOBA and .127 ISO. I’ll pass.

Stack up the Rockies against a struggling Julio Teheran. He is struggling with the long ball, allowing three home runs in each of his last two road starts. He’s struggling against both sides of the plate over the past month, allowing a .446 wOBA and .317 ISO to righties and a .348 wOBA and .257 ISO to lefties. Some of the Rockies are way underpriced for the position they are in and I plan on using them rather than playing matchups. Dj LeMahieu, Gerardo Parra, and Mark Reynolds are incredibly affordable and can easily be stacked with some of the bats listed in other games. Parra is close to a lock for me as he will be batting cleanup and profiles well against the fastball and slider than Teheran relies on 83.98% of the time against lefties over the past month.

DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP – Use promo DONUTS for 20% off and Bonus VIP entrance into our Slack!

HOU@ARI

I do not know what I want to do yet with Houston. Greinke will likely be the highest owned pitcher on the slate which means Houston is the team to stack up for GPP’s. Greinke has allowed a .337 wOBA and .271 ISO to right-handed batters over the past month. This puts Altuve, Bregman, and Springer in play.

McHugh has pretty strong reverse splits over the past two season and over his past 54 matchups against right-handed bats he has allowed a .338 wOBA and .340 ISO with a mind boggling 54.3% fly ball rate. Lock in J.D. Martinez as he has a 46.5% fly ball rate to go along with a .410 wOBA and .397 ISO against righties over his past 75 at-bats. Martinez also profiles well against the cutter that McHugh relies on 17.80% of the time against righties over the past month. Jake Lamb doesn’t have the reverse split match up like Martinez but he’s only $3,300 on Fanduel and has a .383 wOBA and .295 ISO against righties over the past month. I am focused on those two.

KCR@OAK

I just keep stacking Royals over the past month and I likely will do it again tonight. Cotton has allowed a .454 wOBA and .345 ISO with a 45.8% fly ball rate to righties over the past month. Whit Merrifield and Lorenzo Cain are a fantastic mini-stack. If you want a full stack throw in Moustakas and Hosmer and don’t look back. Cotton has allowed a 46.4$ fly ball rate to lefties over his last three starts.

BAL@SEA

Tim Beckham just keeps raking but doesn’t profile well against Yovani Gallardo. We want to target the lefties in the Orioles lineup. Look at Chris Davis and Seth Smith as large field GPP plays. Other than that I am fading this offense and focusing elsewhere.

The lefties are who we want to target on Seattle as Gausman still is struggling against them over the past month. He has allowed a .425 wOBA and .316 ISO with a 32.4% fly ball rate. That being said, the lefties for the Mariners really aren’t in the best form. Robinson Cano is a decent one off but I am fading this team.

PHI@SDP

I love the Phillies righties as Wood is struggling against them over the past month. Hernandez sets the table with a .409 wOBA and .179 ISO over the past month to righties. I would look to stack him with Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco in large field GPP’s.

Jose Pirela is the only bat worth looking at for the Padres. He has a .419 wOBA and .278 ISO and Eickhoff has struggled against righties over the past month.

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? Find out how!

 

You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles. Best of luck tonight in your contests!