When it comes to MLB DFS, there is no shortage of content at dfsarmy.com. In fact, there might be so much it’s a bit overwhelming for the newer player. Well, grab my coat tails because we are going to start fixing that today! Chin Music will be short and sweet. I’m @ChoppoDong on Twitter, too, and love DFS-related conversations in any format. Give me a follow!
At the end of this article is a link to a video series our VIPs will be getting free with membership. A video classroom series designed to walk newer players and intermediates through the fundamentals of the major DFS sports we cover. Feel free to click and watch along.
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Quick Glance
A quick refresh on the columns. Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome. Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win. Green is good. Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters. Again, green is good.
For an even better look at the weather, give @dfsmlbweather a follow! He has quickly become a friend and our in-house meteorologist when it comes to DFS MLB advice. I have personally seen him say not to worry about three games this year where others around the industry were calling the game too risky. When it comes to baseball, you don’t want a weather guy that lives in fear of making mistakes (like most of my local tv guys). Also, find his page on the site at DFS MLB Weather.
MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups
The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside. I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction. I tie-break with the price. If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one. The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win. Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!
Yu Darvish (LAD) – Yu will be the buzz word today, but not so fast….. Sure, he has massive Vegas support, and the only KScore I could find over 500 today, but that price is rough. We are getting to the time of year where prices are going up and up and newer pitchers bursting on the scene aren’t on the horizon. This will force value bats if you take the safety of pitching. Yu is great tonight, but I’m going to be looking for other options if at all possible.
Charlie Morton (HOU) – And, BANG….I found one. KScore is comparable, the Vegas support is not nearly as strong, but the price makes up for it to me. Mid 8k range is where I love to live on Fanduel. It affords a nice selection of bats that also have plenty of room for upside. Do I see Morton posting 50 points tonight? Hell no. But, going back 14 starts, Charlie has posted under 30 points only four times. He has posted over 40 points four times, as well. That is a pretty tight channel to operate in…….making him pretty cash safe. ARI isn’t as strong on the road, and they’ve shown signs of fading a bit here of late. I don’t mind running a consistent pitcher out against them in this spot.
Cole Hamels (TEX) – Cole Hamels jumped off the page at me last night before I did any research. I don’t even know why. He hasn’t jumped at me all year being that his strikeout stuff is all but gone. That KScore is pathetic. However, he has some Vegas love in a big way and has only posted 2 starts under 30 points since July 1st. That’s fairly consistent again, and worthy of consideration tonight. I don’t see him testing any ceiling (hell, I dont know if he has a ceiling anymore), but I don’t see him tanking your lineup, either. If Yu somehow puts up only 40 points, you would rather have Hamels at 30 points based on price comparisons.
Carlos Rodon (CWS) – Before you think I’ve lost my mind, let’s just call this the #RTL play of the day right now. It’s ballsy. But, it’s also cheap. $7700 is pretty nice. LA is going to eventually lose a game. But, even if they don’t lose tonight, look at the KScore you get out of Rodon for this price! His last four starts are all over 33 points, and he has tested a ceiling of 50 twice since July 1st. This isn’t as dumb a play as it looks at first glance and gets you off building a similar lineup than the Yu Darvish chalkheads.
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DFS Army VIP Membership – Limited time offer
We are rolling out a pre-season special for the month of August. My first suggestion is to take advantage of one or more of the free month offers above. I’d rather you put some cash in your bankroll rather then giving it to us up front. If you already have existing DFS accounts or just don’t want to add any new ones – simply go to DFS Army VIP Membership Registration – and use promo code: PRESEASON to get 20% off your monthly membership. Remember that our VIP memberships include coverage for all sports and your 20% discount locks in for as long as you remain a member.
Register For DFS Army VIP Membership! Easiest way to jump in is this link…. DFSARMY VIP!
Soft Pitching to Attack
Next, we start looking at bats. We start the process by finding the softer pitching. Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers. If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms. Someone will answer it quickly for you. I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50. I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list. NOTE: Opponents will now be in parentheses.
Over 5.00 SIERA — Bailey (@CHC), Gibson (CLE)….that’s it. Pretty short list tonight.
Try to pick on these guys as much as possible, especially when they have to face top offenses.
Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats
Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats. Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score. They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters. I list them in order as I find them, cross-check with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase). If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups. Teams facing soft pitching will be in bold. Good BvP matchups will be in italics.
CHC both – BRYANT, LASTELLA, schwarber, rizzo, baez, almora, jay
TEX both – GALLO, beltre, mazara, nicholas, chirinos, napoli, choo
BOS left – YOUNG, NUNEZ, DEVERS, vazquez, benintendi, bradley
NYY both – DIDI, hicks, cooper, judge, headley, sanchez, frazier, torreyes
COL left/both – BLACKMON, ARENADO, valaika, parra, lucroy, cargo, lemahieu
Honroable Mentions: If not for the rain forecast, I’d be all over CLE again…both sides of the plate. So, keep an eye on the weather. Also, LAD right, HOU, and STL lefties. Bonus tip – there is EXCELLENT BvP in the CLE offense, especially with some players not running hot. If the hot hitters stay hot, and the BvP guys hit well, this lineup turns over and over and over tonight, making it an incredibly short night for Mr. Gibson.
HINT – If you see a guy in caps AND italics, he is swinging a hot bat and has a good history vs that pitcher. He deserves strong consideration today.
For more players and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP. Yes, membership has its privileges. Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!
#DongCall!!
Back is the #DongCall, but guys this is supposed to be interactive. We discuss it enough in Slack inside the Army VIP program, but you guys out here on Twitter are who I was hoping to have the most fun with. If you tweet me your dong calls, or guesses at mine, I will retweet them and reply. Twitter is an interactive space where we all grow our reach through interaction. If you want some help, I’m willing to give it where I can. I see #DongCalls as a perfect opportunity to get everyone talking about who they like for the day. Let’s do it!
Yesterday’s #DongCall was Edwin Encarnacion…..ringy ding dingity dong.
Final Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Don’t forget to try one of our site affiliations for your 30day free VIP pass. If you know you aren’t going anywhere, use code CHOP to trigger a 20% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!! And, if you wanted the link to the classroom video series, you can find it by clicking VIDEO CLASSROOM. New vids are scheduled to drop frequently.