Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square last night we had Jerad Eickhoff who ended up with 14.45 DKFP which was good enough for 1.8x value. For our infielder free square, we had Evan Longoria who ended up with 3 DKFP. For our outfielder free square, we had Carlos Gonzalez who ended up with 17 DKFP which was good enough for right around 5x value!
Tonight
We have a monstrous 14 game slate ahead of us for this Tuesday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Jacob DeGrom, Madison Bumgarner, and Alex Wood as the three highest priced pitchers on the slate. On the hitting side of things the teams with the highest implied run totals are in order as follows: Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers. Let’s dive into this huge slate:
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Free Squares
- Dan Straily SP MIA ($6,500)
- Dan Straily and the Miami Marlins take on the San Francisco Giants tonight at Marlins Park. The Marlins are currently -102 favorites and the Giants have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.79 runs. Straily has had quite the up and down season but I think his price and matchup tonight. He has the following advanced numbers on the season so far: .291 wOBA given up to lefties, .319 wOBA given up to righties, 21.6 K%, 6.7 BB%, .272 BABIP, 34.0 Hard%, 4.35 SIERA, and a 4.64 xFIP. He gets to face the Giants tonight who have been averaging right around 3.97 runs per game this season. The Giants the following numbers against right handed pitching on the season: 26th in BB%, 27th in K%, 30th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 30th in wOBA, and 29th in wRC+. Straily faces one of the worst hitting teams against righties in baseball tonight and has a relatively affordable price tonight, I love locking him in at the SP2 position tonight.
- Logan Morrison 1B TBR ($3,400)
- Logan Morrison and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Toronto Blue Jays and pitcher Marco Estrada tonight at the Rogers Centre. The Rays have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.63 runs. Morrison has had a decent year and he always brings solid power upside to the plate. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 14.0 BB%, 24.6 K%, .881 OPS, .279 ISO, .267 BABIP, .364 wOBA, and a 132 wRC+. He gets to face Marco Estrada tonight who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters this season: 1.42 HR/9. 25.9 K%, 7.7 BB%, .273 BABIP, 4.20 xFIP, and a 25.3 Hard%. I really like this matchup for Morrison Estrada is not necessarily a bad pitcher this season, but he is not someone I particularly fear either. Lomo has hit righties pretty well all season and I expect that to continue tonight.
- Jose Bautista OF TOR ($4,200)
- Jose Bautista and the Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Tampa Bay Rays and pitcher Blake Snell tonight at home at the Rogers Centre tonight. The Blue Jays have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.87 runs. Even at his age, Bautista has been having a pretty solid season so far. He has the following numbers against left handed pitching this season: 12.9 BB%, 25.9 K%, .616 OPS, .141 ISO, .224 BABIP, .272 wOBA, 64 wRC+, and a 25.7 Hard%. Yes, his numbers have been sub-bar facing lefties but he has been a bit of a victim of bad luck with such a low BABIP. He gets to take on Blake Snell who has the following numbers vs. right handed batters on the season: .352 wOBA, 1.45 HR/9, 18.5 K%, 12.8 BB%, .295 BABIP, 5.38 xFIP, and a 33.8 Hard%. Snell has been pretty terrible against righties this year which bodes well for Bautista even including his struggles. I am going to roll out Bautista as one off in the outfield and I love the Blue Jay righties tonight.
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We have a very interesting slate as there are not a ton of aces taking the mound which means ownership is going to be all oevr the place tonight. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Marlins pitcher Dan Straily tonight! Good luck Army!
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