Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
I hope everyone had a good weekend as we start the week off with a solid 10 game slate. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Jose Quintana, Zack Greinke, and Kevin Gausman. On the hitting side of things the Colorado Rockies, the New York Yankees, and the Atlanta Braves lead the way with the highest implied run totals of the day. Let’s dive right into the slate for tonight:
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Free Squares
- Jerad Eickhoff SP PHI ($8,000)
- Jerad Eickhoff and the Philadephia Phillies will take on the San Diego Padres at Petco Park tonight. Eickhoff and the Phillies are currently +106 favorites and the Padres have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.10 runs. Eickhoff has had a decent year so far this year gets a great matchup against the Padres tonight. He has the following advanced numbers on the season: .356 wOBA given up to righties, .293 wOBA given up to lefties, 20.5 K%, 8.9 BB%, .316 BABIP, 32.8 Hard%, 4.65 xFIP, and a 4.76 SIERA. He faces the Padres who have averaged 3.82 runs per game on the season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 23rd in BB%, 3rd in K%, 27th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 27th in wOBA, and a 24th in wRC+. This is an absolute dumpster fire with regards to pitching tonight. I think the best route would be to pair one of the higher priced guys with Eickhoff at the SP2 position tonight.
- Evan Longoria TBR ($3,100)
- Evan Longoria and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the Toronto Blue Jays and pitcher Nick Tepesch tonight at the Rogers Centre. Longoria and the Rays have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.02 runs. Longoria has had a solid season so far and I love his price and his matchup tonight. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching on the season: 5.3 BB%, 14.2 K%, .795 OPS, .182 ISO, .304 BABIP, .336 wOBA, and a 112 wRC+. He gets to face Nick Tepesch who has been bouncing around the majors in his career he has the following career numbers against right handed bats: .350 wOBA, 1.08 HR/9, 15.1 K%, 7.1 BB%, .320 BABIP, 4.43 xFIP, and a 31.4 Hard%. For what he brings to the plate tonight, the matchup and the implied run total I personally think Longoria is too cheap tonight. I love him as a one off and think the Rays can put up enough runs to warrant a possible stack tonight.
- Carlos Gonzalez OF COL ($3,400)
- Carlos Gonzalez and the Colorado Rockies will take on the Atlanta Braves and pitcher Julio Teheran tonight at Coors Field. The Rockies have the highest implied run total of the night sitting at right around 6.37 runs. CarGo has been a bit of a disappointment this year but his price and matchup are simply to hard for me to pass up on tonight. He has the following numbers vs. right handed pitching this season: 10.7 BB%, 20.4 K%, .669 OPS, .124 ISO, .274 BABIP, .288 wOBA, 56 wRC+, and a 27.0 Hard%. He gets to face Julio Teheran tonight who has the following numbers against left handed batters on the season: .346 wOBA, 1.92 HR/9, 15.4 K%, 11.8 BB%, .243 BABIP, 5.61 xFIP, and 37.0 Hard%. I can understand a bit of hesitation playing CarGo tonight due to his horrible numbers, but Teheran has been crushed by lefties this season and I think the Rockies are going to put up a big number on him tonight. He is very affordable all things considered and I love him as a one off and we love a Rockies stack tonight obviously.
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Kind of a pitcher dumpster fire slate tonight but either way I think it should be a fun night of MLB. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Phillies pitcher Jerad Eickhoff tonight! Good luck Army!
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