Baseball on the weekends is glorious. As a family man, I don’t have the energy or the drive to have any fun of any kind by the time the weekend rolls around. I just want to be boring and lame and I am not ashamed to admit it. I am sure you have heard of the term “Weekend Warrior”. For me, it has a different meaning these days. Being able to juggle the demands of life throughout the week and still having the dedication to remain prosperous in MLB DFS is my battle. For my fellow dedicated DFS players, this article is for you.
- Main Slate Musings
Sunday has a nice nine game slate where you have a bevy of choices but not an overwhelming amount of decisions to be made like we have on most 13-15 game slates. There is really only one pitcher I want to use and feel comfortable about so I will be rolling him out there and making up for my lack of salary with better research than my opponents to be able to still find some decent bats. For the sake of this article, I will still cover a few of my favorite stacks on the day for those that decide to use a different strategy.
- Pitching
Corey Kluber has proven time and time again that he has just as high of a ceiling as anybody in the league, fantasy wise. In seven out of his last nine starts, Kluber has scored 49 or more Fanduel points. He has had a few ridiculous scores consisting of 70, 64 and 67 fantasy point totals during those nine games. In six of his last seven starts, he has 10 or more strikeouts with a season high of 13 during that game span. He has a fantastic floor and a phenomenal ceiling. When I look for pitchers I attempt to find a pitcher who offers safety with a ceiling. Rarely will I take a pitcher that has one without the other. Out of all the available pitching options, there are a few guys who are borderline for that criteria, but most of them fall short in one of the two categories. Kluber happens to fulfill each requirement for me and I am locking him in.
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- Stacks
The Kansas City Royals continue to find themselves in an excellent position to score runs against the Chicago White Sox pitching staff. On Sunday, they face Derek Holland who has had a rough couple months in the big leagues. Since June 2nd, which covers eight starts, Holland has given up 13 home runs and 40 earned runs in just 36.2 innings pitched. The Royals top half of the order is really starting to heat up and Vegas has their opening projection set at 6.0 runs. That’s a massive run total for a pitchers ballpark.
Since the All-Star break and going into Saturday night, Whit Merrifield had an 8 game hitting streak that included 6 doubles and 1 home run. He has gone 12-for-35 to accumulate those stats and bats second in the order.
Going into Saturday night, Salvador Perez has gone 6-for-17 with a double and a triple over his last five games. There are a handful of cheaper catching options that will carry decent ownership so paying up for Perez is likely the way to go in GPP’s. He makes an excellent mini-stacking option with Whit Merrifield as we abstain from using the left-handed bats, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, in this stack.
The Miami Marlins are in an incredible spot against the right-handed pitcher, Sal Romano of the Cincinnati Reds. The Great American Smallpark is notorious for being a home run park and the Marlins had a 5.5 total at when the Vegas books opened. In a limited sample size, Sal has given up 10 earned runs in his 12 innings pitched this season. The Marlins have a ridiculous .271 ISO against righties during that time frame. Uh oh!
Over the last four weeks against righties, Giancarlo Stanton leads the Marlins with a .480 wOBA and .514 ISO over 78 at-bats. Justin Bour has a .208 ISO over his last 77 at-bats against righties and aside from putting on a phenomenal showdown with Aaron Judge in the home run derby, he makes a spectacular mini-stack option with Stanton.
The Cincinnati Reds have a Vegas projected total of 5.6 runs and face the right-handed pitcher, Tom Koehler. The reason the Reds have such a lofty projection is that Koehler has been terrible against lefties all season. In 2017, lefties have a .465 wOBA and .293 ISO against him. He only strikes them out 13.0% of the time and allows a 35.7% flyball rate. This is dangerous for Koehler in the Great American Ballpark.
Against righties over the past month, Joey Votto has a .438 wOBA with a .333 ISO and a ridiculous 43.5% flyball rate. He bats third and his the heartbeat of this lineup.
Scooter Gennett has an elite .536 wOBA and .424 ISO over the past month against righties. He also smashes the fastball which Tom Koehler throws 52.94% of the time to lefties. Gennett offers an excellent mini-stack with Votto and both will likely carry a 12-15% or less ownership level.
The Houston Astros continue to be under-owned every single slate and I think it’s because they’re basically priced at their value. The difference is that most the other guys who are priced along side them have the exact same upside so it keeps their ownership down. What people are doing wrong, in my opinion, is not using the Astros instead because you have stacking options basically 7-8 batters deep with the Astros which offers serious flexibility when creating a lineup.
Yulieski Gurriel has been smashing the ball post-All-Star break and over the past month has a .399 wOBA and .283 ISO against right-handed pitchers. Dylan Bundy has been awful for a couple months now and will likely get shredded to pieces by the Astros. Gurriel was batting cleanup on Saturday night and likely will remain in the middle of the most potent offense in baseball.
Evan Gattis likely will start as he’s beginning to take over the time share. At the beginning of the season they had a legitimate timeshare based on splits but lately, Gattis has been facing righties as well because he’s hitting the ball so well. Against righties this season, he has a .390 wOBA and .231 ISO, both of which are much higher than McCann’s .297 wOBA and .146 ISO. Gattis has 6 home runs in his last 11 games and hits in 14 of his last 15.
Jose Altuve is one of my favorite players in the league. He scores all the time because of his speed on the basepaths and can easily get you 12.5 points in one at bat, just as he did in his first at-bat Friday night. He had a single, stolen base, and was driven in to score all in the first inning. He has a .466 wOBA against righties over the past month and is an absolute lock.
Marwin Gonzalez moving to the short stop position is one of my favorite things in DFS history. He has been on fire over the past month and has moved up to the 5th spot in the batting order after the loss of Carlos Correa. He has a .418 wOBA and .264 ISO over the past month.
Remember that there isn’t a wrong way or right way to construct a lineup until after the results are in. Whatever you do, just make sure you do it with sound research and analysis. Winning lineups may sometimes look like someone just threw darts at a board but nobody truly plays like that with money on the line. Game theory and research can be the best of friends for GPP’s.
Good luck to all of my fellow weekend warriors! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and enjoy the sweat of a big night with you.