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Every week on DraftKings we see a specific price range that seems to have many players undervalued. This results in high ownership across a specific range and gives us as players many decisions to consider. This week that price range is $6600-6700. Let’s break down the players, who will be popular and where you can pivot to in mass entry tournaments.
This week we see 22 players within this range that we will be looking at. Within this grouping, we see world rankings between #17 and #169 and odds to win between 65/1 to 288/1 so there is a lot to break down here.
The Players
| Player | Odds To Win | Official World Golf Ranking | Form (Wins – Top 10’s – ) |
| Dylan Fritelli | 271 | 82 | 1 – 3 – 10/18 |
| Joost Luiten | 199 | 80 | 0 – 1 – 12/13 |
| Byeong Hun-An | 130 | 60 | 0 – 3 -16/17 |
| Kevin Chappell | 143 | 28 | 1 – 3 – 11/14 |
| Ross Fisher | 92 | 43 | 0 – 5 – 9/13 |
| Charley Hoffman | 135 | 39 | 0 – 4 – 15/19 |
| Kevin Kisner | 125 | 25 | 1 – 5 – 13/15 |
| Hideto Tanihara | 159 | 50 | 0 – 2 – 5/8 |
| Rafa Cabrara-Bello | 65 | 17 | 1 – 6 – 14/19 |
| Daniel Berger | 80 | 20 | 1 – 5 – 11/15 |
| Bryson Dechambeau | 141 | 81 | 1 – 2 – 8/20 |
| Charles Howell | 157 | 55 | 0 – 3 – 12/12 |
| Pablo Larrazabel | 229 | 102 | 0 – 3 – 12/16 |
| Richie Ramsay | 229 | 169 | 0 – 1 – 10/15 |
| Ryan Fox | 175 | 95 | 0 – 4 – 12/16 |
| Fabizio Zanotti | 288 | 97 | 1 – 2 – 8/14 |
| Wesley Bryan | 254 | 36 | 1 – 5 – 11/17 |
| Kyle Stanley | 161 | 58 | 1 – 4 – 14/16 |
| Jason Dufner | 126 | 31 | 1 – 1 – 11/15 |
| Bill Haas | 134 | 37 | 0 – 1 – 11/14 |
| Brian Harman | 126 | 27 | 1 – 7 – 13/17 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 196 | 67 | 0 – 3 – 11/16 |
What this all means?
From the data it would seem a few players stand out as obvious players to put into your lineups and that others are avoidable. However, those same players that jump out as values for us are jumping out for everyone else. This means we can expect certain players to reach higher ownership than others and at a certain point, it makes sense to completely avoid a player based on ownership. Ownership is not simply based on a player’s odds or world rankings, multiple factors come into play including recent form, course history, stats and even if a player is well liked or disliked by the public. With that being said I am going to break down the players, theorize if they will end up on the higher or lower side of ownership within the group, and discuss why I will be playing and avoiding certain plays.
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Dylan Fritelli – Fade
Fritelli has spent much of his professional career jumping between the Euro Tour and the Challenge Tour (Euro’s version of Web.com Tour). Unless you follow the European Tour Fritelli is an unknown, having never branched into the PGA and making his Major debut he has received no coverage here in North America. Because of this and not jumping off of the board in world rank or odds Fritelli will see virtually no ownership. Just because there is no ownership does not mean you should just jump on board. Fritelli’s win this season came in the Euro equivalent of the Puerto Rico Open and his inconsistency isn’t worth the risk for me. With three straight missed cuts entering the event I will be avoiding Fritelli.
Joost Luiten – Play
Much like Fritelli, Luiten has stuck with the Euro Tour making him a relative unknown to those who just follow the PGA. Unlike Fritelli, I think Luiten is a good play this week and a great pivot off of some of the higher ownership guys you’ll see down below. Of his 13 events on tour this season he has finished inside of the top forty 11 times. Although he hasn’t been consistent at The Open Championship with three straight missed cuts I’ll take my chances sprinkling Luiten into my lineups given his recent form. He jumps off of the charts in stroke adjusted statistics for driving accuracy, greens in regulation and shots gained: approach, which are things I am heavily weighing this week. Luiten will be one of the lower owned players within this range and he’s worth a shot in some lineups.
Byeong Hun-An – Fade
If you’ve followed my picks you know I love Byeong (thank you for making every cut for my cash lineups) but this week I will be off of Byeong. To win in a GPP you’re going to need the guys right at the top of the leaderboard and I just don’t see An finishing inside of the top ten. An has the ability to spray the ball off of the tee and has struggled scrambling and putting this season. For the most part, the course An has performed well on this season don’t punish inaccuracy and allow An’s approach game to shine. If the wind picks up and An needs to fight for pars instead of go for birdies I do not see it boding well for him. Ownership wise I think An is in the middle of this pack of players so if you personally like An he is not going to be chalk.
Kevin Chappell – Fade
At some point, you need to lower your player pool. I think you will probably see Chappell on the lower end of the ownership within this range and that makes him a player you can pivot to as a team differentiator but I just do not see it. None of the field-adjusted stats are jumping off of the page and the inaccuracy off of the tee as well as losing strokes scrambling (specifically from the sand) is worrisome for me.
Ross Fisher – Play
Fisher has shown to be a boom or bust player and that is what you want in larger GPP’s. Well this will result in some ownership I still think he falls behind the main tier of Kisner, Berger and Bello. Fisher played at Birkdale in 2008 and came T39, he has good recent form with 4/5 made cuts and 2 top 10’s in that timeframe. Finally, his stats line up and he is gaining stroked in Approach, Around-the-Green and through driving accuracy. Fisher won’t be one of the under 2% owned players, but I don’t think he’ll become that chalky either.
Charley Hoffman – Fade
Hoffman has been incredible off of the tee recently but is losing strokes around the green and approaching the green. I think Hoffman won’t be the top ownership but will be right behind the first tier of guys and at some point, you need to limit your own player pool and Hoffman is one of the guys missing the cut for me.
Kevin Kisner – Play
Kisner is the first player discussed that I think has the potential to see one of the top ownerships within this group. I think he comes in with one of the top ownerships and could actually be the highest owned within this price range. Kisner’s stats line up for what I am looking for.
Hideto Tanihara – Fade
Like Hoffman, Tanihara misses my cut on the fact that I can’t play everyone but I think he can make a good pivot. His stats are lining up and he has shown the ability to contend with the best in the world this season (albeit in a match play event). Tanihara should be on the lower end of ownership as he doesn’t stand out and some people still do not know who he is.
Rafa –Cabrera Bello – Fade
With the highest world ranking, highest odds to win and coming fresh off of a win Cabrera Bello should battle for highest ownership among this group and that is a battle I think he will win. Bello has shown an ability to miss the cut and then finish in contention (and vice versa) and I think purely given his likely ownership a case can be made to completely fade Bello. Although he currently has the best odds to win within this group 65/1 is still an extreme long shot and Golf is a sport of volatility. If Bello is owned by 15% of teams and missed then that is an advantage we now have. His underlying stats are worrisome with his putter carrying him to victory last week. All of this is leading me to bet against Bello this week and spread ownership amongst others within this range.
Daniel Berger – Fade
My pick to win last week was the hardest decision I see on the board. Ownership is incredibly tough to predict and although I think Berger, Kisner and Bello all fight for top ownership I could see Berger ending up with the highest percentage as the week goes on and he continues to be talked up. Berger has been incredible as of late but has struggled with two facets of his game, driving accuracy and scrambling. That’s enough for me to fade Berger but I am in no way confident about it.
Bryson Dechambeau – Play
Fresh off of a win Dechambeau is sure to see a little bump in his stock for the Open Championship. He is coming in with really good form and I still see his ownership lower than the top few within this range. This is probably out of bias from Dechambeau winning me money last week but I’ll let it ride and play him in some lineups this week
Charles Howell – Fade
Charles Howell’s and his 12/12 made cuts is sure to draw some attention to him this week. Howell is a fade for me as I expect him to be one of the higher owned players within this range and I think there are some signs that indicate the cut streak could be over. Howell is one of the few players to play in Birkdale in 2008, an event in which he missed the cut. Howell’s tour adjusted stats also indicate he is not lining up great for the course. Howell has been inaccurate off of the tee, something that has not mattered in the last two events but matters incredibly here. Howell is also losing strokes on the field approaching the green and has seen good results recently due to a hot putter. We all know how quickly a putter can change on a player and in such an unpredictable sport I would rather not rely on Howell’s flat stick. Howell will not be the highest owned within this range but he will be in the upper half, I like the fade here.
Pablo Larrazabel -Fade
Missing cuts recently and terrible field adjusted stats are keeping me off of Larrazabel and his super low ownership.
Richie Ramsay – Play
Ramsay has solid finishes of T35 and a T2 the past two weekends in legitimate fields. Sounds good enough to me to give him a shot in a few lineups as a pivot off of the more popular players within the price range.
Ryan Fox – Play
Ryan Fox is setting up as a great pivot and I will be utilizing him in some of my lineups. Fox is coming in with tremendous form, with a T4, T4 and T6 in his last three events and six straight made cuts. Fox is another unknown to North America which lowers the ownership but his recent form is enough to give him a shot in a few lineups. Fox has only played in the Open Championship once in 2015, finishing with a T49 Fox has shown he can also perform on Links style courses.
Fabizio Zanotti – Fade
Like Frittelli just too many question marks for me to get behind, regardless of the less than 1% ownership, we will likely see.
Wesley Bryan – Fade
Fresh off of a win Bryan should see a little bump in ownership. Like An, I love Bryan and although I recommended him last week I think he is a player we can comfortable pivot off of. Unlike last week where birdies were plentiful Royal Birkdale provides an entirely opposite challenge. The tee shot matters here and I think Bryan simply loses too much distance off of the tee and he is not the most accurate player, to begin with. I think too there is something to be said about the value of getting acclimated to the playing conditions. All of this is leading me to fade Bryan without much worry.
Kyle Stanley – Play
If you had read my course preview you would have seen Kyle Stanley highlighted for the same reasons I’ll discuss now. Despite his form jumping out in the chart above, I do not think Stanley will see as much ownership with the names around him and the week his middle of the pack finish at John Deere. Coming over Sunday night is working against Stanley but he checks off the key stats I am looking at. Stanley has been tremendously accurate off of the tee, has been gaining strokes on the field around the green and although the approach game has faded slightly in recent weeks he has shown he is capable of gaining strokes in that category with the best of them. Stanley’s name in this price range is surprising, but so are so many other players that I think keep his ownership down and make him a great GPP play.
Jason Dufner – Fade
Dufner should see some ownership flock to him given recent history at the Open Championship (5/5) and is a recognizable name to the players who will play because it is a Major that do not follow Golf weekly. However, within those five tournaments, Dufner never cracked the top 20. With two straight missed cuts I feel comfortable fading Dufner in this spot.
Bill Haas – Play
I really like Haas this week and will be putting him into a few GPP lineups. I think Haas falls into the middle of the pack ownership wise and I am comfortable being overweight on that number. If he can straighten out the drive Haas is a player I think sets up great for when winds pick up as he can stay in contention in the rough weather through his scrambling ability.
Brian Harman – Play
I think Harman probably falls under Bello, Berger and Kisner in terms of ownership but still sees people on him. I am willing to go with the field on this one and play Harman within my lineups. Harman combines recent form and key stats that I am looking at in my players this week. Ownership of a player does not always mean you must fade them and I will be playing Harman this week.
Anirban Lahiri – Fade
Losing strokes approaching the green, around the green and through driving accuracy are all leaving me off of Lahiri. Wont see high ownership but there are much better pivots on the board.
Final Thoughts
Instead of simply taking my plays and fades I hope this article will help in your own process of creating your specific player pool. Ownership is hard to project (especially in a Major) and can often be ignored by players because it is easier to take the names that stand out. I hope this article helps give a new thought process surrounding ownership, roster creation and evaluating how and why you will play and avoid certain players.
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