We did have some nice picks last time out. Hopefully we can keep the ball rolling and sort out some of the areas we missed on. Today we have a “MONSTER” 6-game slate, with some very intriguing games. There’s a lot of little nuggets to be gleaned from all of it, and hopefully we can find those tiny gems in the rough. Let’s dive in!
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Washington Mystic @ Connecticut Sun (PK) – O/U: 163
Vegas sees this game as a toss-up. Should be a close and hard fought battle. Centers get average usage and below average scoring against the Mystic. Jonquel Jones failed to make value in the most recent game between these two, but given her skillset, she is in play. Forwards get good usage but struggle to score against the Mystic. Given Thomas’ all-around game, she is definitely in play here. Guards have a great time against the Mystic. This matchup is just about as good as the last one for Jasmine Thomas. She should have a great game here. Courtney Williams and Skekinna Stricklen could also be in play.
Centers have a hard time against the Sun, averaging low usage and scoring. However, Elena Delle Donne gets high usage and scores a lot, so she is always in play. Forwards get average usage and tend to score more, while that will normally make Emma Meesseman a good option today, she might struggle to make value due to her elevated pricing on both sites. Guards get average usage but struggle scoring against the Sun, making it had to like any Mystic guards. Kristi Tolliver has been hot the past two games and if her 3-pointers are falling, she could put up a solid game.
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New York Liberty (-5) @ Indiana Fever – O/U: 154
Centers also tend to get a high amount of usage against the Liberty and score a lot. Forwards get good usage against the Liberty, but tend to be average in scoring. Guards perform well against the Liberty, but this game could be out of hand very quickly. Briann January, Erica Wheeler, and Tiffany Mitchell are the only players of interest here, and I have zero interest in them.
Centers perform well against the Fever, ALL-IN Tina Charles. Forwards are average against the Fever, Kia Vaughn and Kiah Stokes should have okay games. As for guards, they perform average against the fever given their usage. Look to Epiphany Prince and Shavonte Zellous here.
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Minnesota Lynx (-8) @ Atlanta Dream – O/U: 167
The Lynx are the best defensive team in the league. Centers and Forwards have the worst usage and points against them. If you want to attack them it will be through the guards. Of the Atlanta guards, Brittney Sykes and Tiffany Hayes are the best options based on price and their outside shooting. Bria Holmes could also be considered as a punt play here.
The Atlanta Dream perform poorly in terms of points per mins given usage against centers and forwards, Sylvia Fowles and Maya Moore are in great positions here. Rebecca Brunson is also in a good spot. The Dream can also be attacked using guards, putting, Seimone Augustus in play. You can target the likes of Lindsay Whalen and Renee Montgomery for value.
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Los Angeles Spark (-11.5) @ San Antonio Stars – O/U: 155
Vegas is predicting a blowout in a low-scoring game here. The LA Sparks are the second best defensive team in the league. Centers might be their weakest spot, putting Isabelle Harrison in play. Sequoia Holmes could be a good value play here too if she can get some run. It’s hard to figure out who else can do well on this Stars team given the monster defense they are going up against. Kelsey Plum could get a lot of run if this game gets out of hand quickly, making her an option here.
The Stars struggle against centers when points per minutes given usage is taken into consideration, however, they have been known to limit good centers from having huge games. The last time these two teams met Candace Parker only put up 32 DK pts. Parker is in a good spot, but her upside could be limited here. They also struggle against forwards, making Nneka Ogwumike a good play. Stars are also relatively good against guards, when minutes are considered. Chelsea Gray is in play, but her upside could be limited too. Value could potentially be found with Riquana Williams.
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Phoenix Mercury @ Chicago Sky (-5.5) – O/U: 166
Turns out Angel Robinson has been able to fill the defensive shoes of Griner quite well, making it tough for centers against the Mercury. This makes the forward position the place to attack, so look to Jessica Breland to have a good game. The Phoenix mercury have been giving up a lot of points to guards over their last 5 games. This puts Courtney Vandersloot and Allie Quigley in play.
Centers and forwards are good against the Sky. Angel Robinson should offer some value as a punt play here. Camille Little is in a good spot, the question is whether she can take advantage of it. On the guard front, Chicago gives up the most points and points per minutes when usage is considered. Lock and load Diana Taurasi again. She’ll be super chalky, but she is still underpriced given her usage and minutes with Griner out, especially on FD (How is she only $5,800?). Danielle Robinson, Lelainie Mitchell, and Monique Currie also offer good value here.
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Dallas Wings @ Seattle Storm (-5.5) – O/U: 170
The Wings allow a lot of scoring and above average usage to centers, making this a good opportunity for Crystal Langhorne and Alysha Clark. Breanna Stewart should also have a monster game here. Guards struggle against the Wings in terms of scoring and usage, making it difficult to like any Storm guards here. Sue Bird will be the choice if I had to pick one, mainly because she is cheaper.
The Storm struggle against centers, making Courtney Paris a good option here. Forwards are average against the Storm, but Glory Johnson managed to get a good game the last time these two met. She is in play once again. Guards perform average against the Storm, so Skylar Diggins-Smith and Alisha Gray are in play here. Do not sleep on Aerial Powers, she just returned from an ankle injury which forced her to miss the entire season up to this point. At min price, she represents extreme value.
TOP PICKS
Guards:
Elite: Diane Taurasi, Jasmine Thomas, Epiphany Prince
Value: Danielle Robinson, Seimone Augustus, Renee Montgomery, Kaela Davis
Forwards:
Elite: Breanna Stewart, Tina Charles, Sylvia Fowles, Maya Moore, Elena Delle Donne, Nneka Ogwumike
Value: Crystal Langhorne, Alysha Clark, Courtney Paris, Camille Little, Angel Robinson