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PITCHER:
*Early*
>>>The Studs
Johnny Cueto (@PHI): I mean, why the hell not? Ty Blach just threw a complete game shutout against the Phillies less than 24 hours ago. What’s to stop a pitcher that is 100,000,000 times better from doing the same?
Carlos Carrasco (@KC): Solid BvP numbers against a good chunk of the Royals lineup and he’s coming off a fantastic month of May where he went 3-0 with a 1.07 WHIP. I wouldn’t say that Carrasco’s stuff has been “shut down,” but Kauffman Stadium is a great venue for pitchers and this KC offense is still poor despite showing some improvement lately. Carrasco is 5-3 with a 2.04 ERA in his last 11 starts vs KC.
Jon Lester (vs STL): I’m not overly enthused by his -167 Vegas moneyline number, I think it should be a bit higher, but I do like his 3-0 record and 1.80 ERA over 40 innings at Wrigley Field this season. Lester has faced STL twice this season and had minimal success, but both meetings were at Busch Stadium. I would hope this time turns out to be a lot better.
>>>The one that could surprise…
Jhoulys Chacin (vs COL): It’s clear that Chacin likes his San Diego backyard hammock, or whatever he sleeps in at home. He’s got a 2-0 record/0.67 ERA in four starts at Petco Park this season and the Rockies own the fifth-worst wRC+ (83) against right-handed pitching.
>>>Be cautious of…
Rich Hill (@MIL): It’s very simple, he doesn’t go deep enough into games.
*Main*
>>>The Stud
Ervin Santana (@LAA): Looking at this 4-0 record/0.31 ERA on the road, it’s obvious that he loves hotel linens and a continental breakfast. This time, Santana is going back to one of his former stomping grounds and gets to take on the absolute worst offense (since Mike Trout tore a thumb ligament) my eyes have ever seen. Go get em’, road warrior!
>>>Those who could surprise…
Robert Gsellman (vs PIT): It’s tough to take full value of what he’s done in his last two starts (vs SD, vs MIL…both at home), but Gsellman has looked like a different pitcher since coming back into the starting rotation. I’m not expecting many strikeouts, but a quality start is certainly within the realm of possibility; since this is the Mets we’re talking about, a win nowadays is anything but a guarantee.
Alex Cobb (@SEA): This is more of a gut-call from what I’ve seen watching him recently. When Cobb finally brings down some of these walks numbers, that’s when we’re really going to see him turn the corner. Going up against the Mariners is a risky proposition, but Cobb has done a great job of going deep into games and limiting damage while also posting a respectable number of Ks.
>>>Be cautious of…
Lance McCullers (@TEX): For one, the weather in the DFW area is terrible this entire weekend so they may not even be able to play tonight. Most of my worries are because of the Rangers offense, which struggles against left-handed pitching, not necessarily against the righties. Of course, Globe Life Park is not the best venue for pitchers either. Last of all, McCullers did strike out 10 Rangers the last time he faced them, but tempers flared in that meeting after he threw behind Mike Napoli in the at-bat following a HR. The Rangers will certainly be looking for revenge on McCullers, and the ass-kicking they took from his Astros teammates last night.
David Price (@BAL): All the O’s struggles against left-handed pitching seem to be over with and I don’t think a partially-healthy Price will be the one to put them back in that hard place. He only went 5 innings in his season debut earlier this week and I highly doubt the Red Sox are going to press him for more than he’s ready to deal with.
Matt Shoemaker (vs MIN): He looked like he was finally turning the corner with 3 straight quality starts, but Shoemaker’s last outing (against the Marlins) turned out to be a devastating one. His numbers are worse at home this season (5.20 ERA, 16 ER in 27.2 innings) but the 3-1 record there looks good because of run support.
STACKS:
*Early*
Cleveland Indians (@KC, Jason Hammel): The Tribe opened as -178 favorites in Vegas last night and this game has a total of 9. I don’t believe a lot of that total has to do with the Royals, who are facing a tough pitcher in Carrasco. In fact, a lot of that probably has to do with the fact that the Tribe is facing one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Let’s have some of Jobu’s rum and bang the drums!
Chicago Cubs (vs STL, Mike Leake): Call me nuts with this one, but it’s about time that the defending champs finally got it going with the sticks. The temperature is finally rising a bit in Chicago with summer right around the corner, and the brisk temperatures of April-May certainly had something to do with the flight of the ball at Wrigley Field.
Chicago White Sox (@DET, Jordan Zimmermann): Abreu, Cabrera, Frazier all have great BvP numbers and Zimmermann has been getting roughed up all season. Why stop now?
Cincinnati Reds (vs ATL, R.A. Dickey): They disappointed us greatly last night, so of course they’ll put up a couple touchdowns today.
Detroit Tigers (vs CHW, Miguel Gonzalez): 7 (SEVEN!!!) Tigers are hitting at least .360 over their respective careers against Gonzalez. The Tigers just hung 15 on the Pale Hose last night, and they had so much fun that they’re thinking about an encore performance.
Washington Nationals (@OAK, Daniel Mengden): Even without Bryce Harper, the Nats have been rocking these last two games. Mengden made his season debut against the Indians earlier this week and the results were not pretty; his velocity is basically non-existent so expect the Nats to wait back and feast all day.
*Late*
New York Mets (vs PIT, Tyler Glasnow): A lot of these Mets bats are appealing against Glasnow tonight, and there is some possible stolen base upside here as well. The weather is getting a little warmer and we saw that help the ball flight last night at Citi Field, where a ton of runs were scored. If the Mets are going to do well, it’ll be via the long ball. Scared money don’t make money!
CATCHER:
*Early*
Alex Avila (vs CHW): Excellent matchup with HR upside, 5-for-13 against Gonzalez.
Yasmany Grandal (@MIL): Great hitting environment at Miller Park and a great matchup against Garza.
Yadier Molina (@CHC): 11-for-27 with 3 XBH, 3 BB against Lester
*Late*
Evan Gattis/Brian McCann (@TEX): Hopefully the rain holds off, just so I can roster one of these guys. The catcher position is ugly in this slate.
Christian Vasquez/Sandy Leon (@BAL): Not a great matchup…solid price, though.
Rene Rivera/Travis d’Arnaud (vs PIT): Whichever guy plays….Rivera is the on-base guy, d’Arnaud for the power.
Jason Castro (@LAA): Looking to be one of the only viable candidates behind the plate on this slate.
FIRST BASEMAN:
*Early*
Paul Goldschmidt (@MIA): 7-for-14 with 5 XBH, 1 HR, 3 BB against Volquez.
Miguel Cabrera (vs CHW): 8-for-19, 3 XBH, 1 HR against Gonzalez.
Anthony Rizzo (vs STL): 16-for-43 with 6 XBH, 2 HR, 3 BB against Leake.
Joey Votto (vs ATL): Major disappointment last night, make sure you make up for it today, K bruh?
Edwin Encarnacion (@KC): 8-for-21 with a double, 4 HR against Hammel.
Jose Abreu (@DET): 7-for-12 with 3 XBH, 1 HR against Zimmermann.
Justin Smoak (vs NYY): Solid 126.53 DFSA grade and a lot of that has to do with his .417 avg against left-handed pitching this season.
*Main*
Lucas Duda (vs PIT): No, it’s not Denzel, but he is a man on fire and did rip 2 HR off Pittsburgh pitching last night.
Marwin Gonzalez (@TEX): Much more expensive than Duda on FanDuel, but he’s got a much better matchup and hitting venue.
Logan Morrison (@SEA): Hitting the ball very well lately and he’s due for a HR any at-bat now.
Albert Pujols (vs MIN): Personally, I hate all the ownership he carries since people want to say they rostered him when he hit career HR #600. However, he is the best hitter in this Angels lineup nowadays.
SECOND BASEMAN:
*Early*
Daniel Murphy (@OAK): Massive 92.38 DFSA grade today against a young unproven pitcher in Mengden. Murphy went yard last night and he’s had three multi-hit games over his last four.
Jason Kipnis (@KC): Could be a huge part in getting the Indians onslaught going today. Excellent matchup against Hammel.
Brandon Phillips (@CIN): OK, so maybe he was getting all of his “Cincy return” feelings out of the way yesterday. I still love the narrative for him being back in the city where he spent 11 seasons.
Dixon Machado (vs CHW): With Ian Kinsler on the DL, Machado will probably be the highest owned player on today’s slate after balling outrageous in the leadoff spot last night. He’s basically free on FanDuel and not far from it on DraftKings. I doubt we’ll get the production like we saw yesterday, but it’s also not a bad idea to strike while the iron is hot.
*Late*
Robbie Cano (vs TB): 8-for-23 with a double and 3 HR against Cobb.
Neil Walker (vs PIT): The Mets project well tonight, and Walker has a history of doing well against his former/hometown team.
THIRD BASEMAN:
*Early*
Jake Lamb (@MIA): Always a solid play against right-handed pitching.
Anthony Rendon (@OAK): He, like most of his Nats teammates, had a monster game last night and today’s matchup is much better. Rendon has six multi-hit games over his last 11 and there should be more than a few RBI opportunities for him today.
Jose Ramirez (@KC): Always a great piece to have when the Indians are slated for a big day- usually very good with runners in scoring position. Ramirez has the highest DFSA grade of any Indians player as well.
Eugenio Suarez (vs ATL): Went into a bit of a funk during the Reds recent six-game road trip, but we saw him snap out of it immediately once he came home. This is the time to buy in on Suarez when he’s cheap and at home, because the price won’t be there for long. Suarez is hitting .312 with 8 HR at Great American Ballpark this season.
Derek Dietrich (vs ARZ): Good, solid source of cheap value. I’m not expecting many points and you shouldn’t either for this price. Deets is a good OBP guy that can come around to score a run or two if you need salary relief.
*Late*
Manny Machado (vs BOS): He’s struggled most of this season, but has gone 3-for-8 over the last two games and hit a mammoth HR last night. I watched a segment on MLB Network about how Machado is about to break out this slump…I will not go into too much detail here, but lemme tell ya, I was impressed. Machado is facing David Price tonight, someone I am not impressed with, and is 10-for-34 with a double and 3 HR over the course of his career.
Jose Reyes (vs PIT): Stolen base upside against Glasnow, who is terrible at holding runners on base.
Luis Valbuena (vs MIN): Santana will likely be the chalk pitcher of the late slate, so this wouldn’t be a bad cheap option with HR upside to stick it to the man.
SHORTSTOP:
*Early*
Francisco Lindor (@KC): Should be on base plenty of times and have a fair amount of RBI opportunities against gas can Hammel.
Zack Cozart (vs ATL): One of the best batting averages in MLB, has a great matchup against Dickey and his useless knuckleball.
*Late*
Carlos Correa (@TEX): There is no one hotter in baseball right now.
Asdrubal Cabrera (vs PIT): HR upside against Glasnow. Very good chance he gets on base at least 2-3 times tonight.
JJ Hardy (vs BOS): I am not a Price believer, and this isn’t a bad place to go for cheap HR upside.
OUTFIELD:
*Early*
Michael Brantley/Bradley Zimmer (@KC): The Indians grade out well against a weak pitcher in Hammel, so both guys should have plenty of gaudy numbers before the day is over.
Giancarlo Stanton/Christian Yelich/Marcell Ozuna (vs ARZ): Stanton, especially, has been ripping and roaring since moving into the 2-hole.
Billy Hamilton/Adam Duvall/Scott Schebler (vs ATL): Great hitting venue against Dickey.
Melky Cabrera/Leury Garcia/Avisail Garcia (@DET): Game total is 10 and this matchup against Zimmermann is primo.
Michael Saunders (vs SF): Sneaky HR upside against Cueto.
*Late*
Corey Dickerson/Kevin Kiermaier/Steven Souza Jr/Colby Rasmus (@SEA): These guys have been collectively running hot for a while now.
Mookie Betts/Jackie Bradley Jr/Andrew Benintendi (@BAL): Betts and Bradley Jr have exceptional career numbers against Bundy, while Benintendi is too cheap for his amount of versatility.
Michael Conforto/Jay Bruce/Curtis Granderson (vs PIT): HR upside against Glasnow.
Trey Mancini (vs BOS): He’s got excellent short-term BvP against Price (2-for-3 with a double and HR)
Eric Young (vs MIN): Very cheap source of speed and sneaky power. One of these days the Angels will smarten up and put him in the leadoff spot.
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