Two miles of trouble in this Irish Hills! Michigan is a fast, demanding racetrack where power rules. It’s gonna be a very interesting weekend and I can’t wait. To start, make sure you check you my primer article “The Competition Caution” . As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Kyle Larson– I swear there is more method to my madness than just touting the pole sitter! This week, we have every reason in the world to play Larson. Here is a few: he boasted top seven single lap speed across all practices. He won the other 2 mile race this year. He won at Michigan last year. He starts first at a track that is hard to pass, and we often see a bit of follow the leader. See what I mean!? I gotta tout him! I expect Larson to bite off a big chunk of laps led and fast laps during segment one on his way to competing for a win.
Brad Keselowski – Bad Brad is always bad fast when he comes to Michigan, and it’s no mystery why. Not only is it a hometown race for Kes, it’s a hometown race for his manufacturer Ford. As we talked about during The Competition Caution, Ford always makes a point of bring their best stuff to Michigan. In the last four Michigan races, Penske cars have finished no worse than 10th! Bad Brad finished final practice quickest, and will take the grid 12th on Sunday. This provides a little bit of a safety valve that we won’t see with Larson or Truex. I’m going to have big time exposure to Brad this weekend. I’m not confident in making teammate Joey Logano a top play, but he is worth looking at too.
Martin Truex Jr. – Do you ever go to a family reunion, and your little cousin wants to play Mario Kart, and god bless him – but you just put a molliwhopping on him because like – what are you gonna do, take it easy on him!? That’s how Truex has treated everyone else in 2017. Those cars just have so much raw speed, and Martin Truex Jr. is robotic when it comes to hitting his marks. He rolls of second, which is always a tempting fade but I would say you would do that at your own demise this week. He has been fast in all practice, as if it mattered anyway. He is going to come with heat at race time no matter what. I expect him to ride around in second for a bit of the jump, but its inevitable he will find the lead. Don’t be afraid to play him with Larson either, I think they are your two most likely doms.
Ty Dillon – If you would have told me I would be making Ty Dillon a top play this early in 2017, I’d call you crazy. But circumstances have made him nearly a must play. Dillon rolls off dead last on Sunday, and his fantastic at avoiding incidents at an already low incident track. Across his two Monster Energy starts, he carries an average finish of 19th. Whats more is he is carring RCR gear this year, and RCR performs LIGHTS OUT at Michigan. It all adds up to a very tough fade, despite him being super high owned this week.
Confusing Plays
Dale Jr. – Any other year, this would be an easy play. Dale Jr at $7800 starting 17th at one of his best tracks!? Plug and play!! But 2017 has proven to be a different animal for Jr. He has struggled with everything you could possibly struggle with, and just seems to be lacking something. However, Jr is a saavy vet and could turn everything around with a swiftness.
Clint Bowyer – What was Draftkings thinking with this pricing??? $6800 for a SHR Clint Bowyer is almost an insult. The problem is he qualfied third, which means he still needs to compete for a top five in order to sneak into the optimal. That is certainly not out of the question though. Clint doesn’t have the results in 2017, but he has been fast every single week – it just seems like he has a nose for incidents. I expect Clint will still be a bet over owned for my taste, so I wont be as high on him as I thought when pricing came out.
Value Plays
Ty Dillon – SEE ABOVE
Paul Menard – Menard hasn’t looked strong this weekend, but starting 30th is hard to ignore, especially when you consider his worst finish here since 2013 is 18th. RCR always brings the noise to Michigan, and usually stays out of trouble. Menard is usually a high risk play as he has a nose for trouble, but at a place like Michigan I’m not too worried about it. Play Menard with some confidence this week.
Trevor Bayne – This almost qualifies as a confusing play. You need to be really really careful with this. Trevor Bayne is expecting a child any day, and if it comes tommorrow, Ryan Reed will start in his place. If that is the case – Bayne will eat a zero tomorrow. However if he DOES play, he will probably be under owned at a race where he is in a really good position. He starts 27th where he can and has competed for a top 15. Pair that with how good Roush has been this year, and how we expect Ford to bring some heat this weekend – and Im really excited about Bayne. BUT – make sure you keep an eye on Twitter for the latest. If Ryan Reed gets the start you NEED TO FADE BAYNE.
Daniel Suarez – I think this could be a sneaky little play considering you don’t REALLY need to dive into the $7500 to make your lineups, but Suarez is a really great play this weekend. He is starting 20th at a track where he passed and beat Kyle Busch in the xFinity race. Now he will test his luck in a Joe Gibbs car. He ended sixth in single and ten lap speed in final practice and has been running really great the last couple weeks. I am going to have lots of Danny come Sunday.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. I think this is a really interesting race in terms of lineup construction, because the pricing is very soft. Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.