It’s time for TRT-Bristol, it’s Dover, baby! One of my favorite tracks on the circuit. Just a heads up, a hand injury has hindred my typing ability, so this article may be a bit breifer than usual. However, I assure you the research was as extensive as it always is. To start, make sure you check you my primer article “The Competition Caution” . As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. The dom station has been so valuable these last few weeks so I am hoping to keep that mojo going!
Top Plays
Kyle Larson – Though Larson’s Dover starts don’t jump off the page, he is very very talented when it comes to Dover. He has an absolute rocket ship, and I anticipate he will be the Vegas favorite come tomorrow morning. In the all important final practice he boasted the fastest single and ten lap speed, which is a rarity at any track. His only downside is he starting fifth, which is kind of a deadzone. That said, I really believe Larson will dominate a large portion of this race and compete for a win at the end of the day.
Kyle Busch – Here’s a hot take – we are on the verge of a Toyota dominated summer *nose pick, mic drop*. The Toyota stars have all looked like rocketships so far this weekend, and have really picked up the performance over the last few weeks. That charge is led by Kyle Busch. He is rolling off first with top six speed in all categories, across all practice sessions. Couple that with an average running position of FIVE-POINT-FOUR since 2013. That is insane. Kyle Busch is driving mad and that is when Busch is at his best. Look for a bit of KB show come Monday.
Kevin Harvick – Dover has never been a great track for Harv, but his switch to Stewart-Haas in 2014 really seemed to give him some mojo. He suffered some pretty bum finishes at Dover in 2016, but dont let that discourage you – he ran well. The biggest feather in Harv’s hat this week is his 18th starting spot. That is just too much place differential to ignore for a potential dominator.
Martin Truex Jr. – Does this really need a write up? He has been dominate everywhere this year, and has been dominate at Dover for YEARS. This is his home track and he has won here before. My one mark against him is I think Kyle Busch, who starts in the preferred line, seems to have a faster piece this week. However, if Truex gets the jump, it could be a longgggg afternoon of Truex domination.
Confusing Plays
Joey Logano – Look at Joey down there starting 26th at $9200 looking like a snack. This seems like an all in type of play, but I am no convinced. Joey has had ZERRRO speed the last few weeks, and wasn’t able to put down any impressive laps in any of the practices. His record at Dover isn’t the best…but its Joey! I just don’t know. He is too good to ignore, but I am not going to go all-in on him like I normally would in this situation. Be careful with Joey, but don’t be scared of him…does that make sense?
“Value” Plays
Clint Bowyer – Note the quotations around value. At $8800, old Clint doesn’t apply for value status anymore. That said, he is still one of my favorite plays this weekend and a really solid pivot off of Joey Logano. Starting 22nd, Bowyer has looked really serviceable in practice. He also has a really impressive track history at Dover, espically when you consider the races when he has equipment to compete. He is a real top five threat this weekend.
Jamie McMurray – Woah! A week where we can actually play JMac? Neat. He has been top ten in all relevant practices so far this weekend, and start way back in 19th at $8200. Granted, his Dover stats arent really that inspiring, but his cars have never been as fast as they are now. I really don’t see how JMac doesn’t find his way into the top ten this week, which is good enough to put him on our radar.
David Ragan or Cole Whitt – Pick one! Not both! I think there is a good chance that one of these guys finds their way into the optimal. Starting 33rd and 35th should be enough to put these standout scrubs on your radar this weekend. If I had to pick one, it would probably be Whitt – who has been stellar on the <=1Mile tracks this year. Be preapred to eat a $700 premium for him though.
Danica Patrick – *GULP*. Here we go. It was just last week I said I was fading Patrick for the future, as she seems to have lost her passion for the sport. BUT. She is starting 31st, in an elite car, at $5900, at a track where she has found the top 30 in the last eight races. If she can stay out of trouble – she will probably be a good play. If she finds her way into the top 20, like she did last year, she will probably be in the optimal. Good luck!
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. This is going to be a really fun race, so we will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.