MLB DFS ‘Chop’s Chin Music’ Winning Lineups Strategy 6-20

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At the end of this article is a link to a new challenge I’m starting this week.  Follow along by giving it a read!

Quick Glance

Quick refresh on the columns.  Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome.  Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win.  Green is good.  Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters.  Again, green is good.

For an even better look at the weather, give @dfsmlbweather a follow!  He has quickly become a friend and our in-house meteorologist when it comes to DFS MLB advice.  I have personally seen him say not to worry about three games this year where others around the industry were calling the game too risky.  When it comes to baseball, you don’t want a weather guy that lives in fear of making mistakes (like most of my local tv guys).  Also, find his page on site at DFS MLB Weather.

MLB Pitchers for Winning DFS Lineups

The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside.  I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction.  I tie-break with price.  If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one.  The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win.  Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!

Chris Sale (BOS) – Let’s start by saying this isn’t a wide open slate for pitching today by any means.  In fact, it sort of sucks.  I don’t fee great about any of them at all.  Sale leads the pack, though, and might command the price unless you are willing to nearly punt the position.  In cash games, we don’t punt.  In leagues, and certainly GPPs, there is upside/reward for taking some chances.  I can see gambling with pitcher there, even though I don’t usually recommend the play.  Pitching is your most consistent source of points.  Take them and run.  That said, Sale is expensive.  Nearly Kershaw expensive.  The -170 from Vegas isn’t what we’d like to see, but our boy Clay crapped on a -315 last night, so shit happens.  The 536 KScore is as high as you’ll find today.  The next closest I saw worth looking at was Greinke, who laces up in Coors Field.  This should be your chalk…..just try and roster him in 3 or 4 of every 5 lineups you run out today.

Michael Pineda (NYY) – Pineda is next and carries the lead in Vegas support at -225, but that doesn’t mean I like him.  $8900 is a nice drop from Sale and he has an elite ground ball rate of 52.7% so far this season.  His KScore of 438 loses a little of it’s shine and I’m honestly just not feeling it.  I didn’t bother to look at his consistency, but if I remember right he’s not very consistent.  I listed him as the top Vegas favorite today only.  I won’t be using him.

Mike Leake (STL) – Leake started off the season on a tear.  All the Cardinals did.  But, just like hitting is contagious, so is pitching….and Cardinals have the flu.  Leake’s last few starts have been pretty crappy and I don’t have a lot of confidence in a “pitch to contact” guy in DFS.  But, when he pops up on my radar, you get a sense of just how mediocre the pitching slate is.  His high points are facing Philly, who strikes out 23.5% of the time.  This should serve as a boost to Leake, but the overall KScore is just 410.  $8000 is ok, but if I’m dropping this far off Sale, I may as well go all the freakin way!

Francisco Liriano (TOR) – $7400 has me at hello, but Liriano has me looking for the escape hatch.  His KScore is impressive today as it has been his past few starts at 495.  The old man can still get the swings and misses.  However, he is in Texas’ ballpark tonight and carries a 13.3% walk rate.  You don’t want people on base with free passes in a hitter’s ballpark….especially when your SIERA is over 4.50.  This one is a great GPP play, but man is it playing with fire!

Francis Martes (HOU) – Now we talkin’!!  $6500 and a KScore of 479 is a nice combination.  Vegas has it at even money, but I don’t mind taking a chance here.  I don’t expect much, but $6500 allows a lot of premium bats.  Get me just 30-35 points, and I have all I need from this guy.  Another GPP flier.

Zack Greinke (ARI) – If I was going anywhere off of Sale, I would take the Coors discount and run straight to Greinke.  509 KScore is very nice and the +115 isn’t such a significant dog that we feel too nervous about him getting shelled.  The thing to point out with Zack tonight is that he’s in Coors and facing a division foe in the Rockies.  So, let’s dip back into the annals of history.  Only two hitters have good BvP against him right now, Reynolds and Carlos Gonzalez.  The others have bitten him on occasion but are largely held in check.  Greinke is better this year and bouncing back from a poor year last year.  COL strikes out 22.2% of the time vs RHP alone, which serves to boost Zack’s KScore another couple points to 513.  Greinke has only blown up twice in about 3 years vs COL in all games, and in the two times he’s faced them this year he has posted scores of 40 and 46.  Remember, it’s not as if Chase Field is some pitcher’s paradise, either.  But, specifically in Coors, Greinke has never truly imploded.  His lowest score was a 20 on June 23 last season.  And, his other scores dating back to 2014 are 36, 30, 34, 20, and 46.  So, while he might not test his ceiling of 50, he still has a floor most likely.  Add in the price drop to $8200 and you need about 35 to be respectable and 40 brings you fair value.  I’d say that’s more than plausible tonight.  Don’t be afraid of him.  The best part is on this shitty slate, you save 4k off Sale and no one will take Greinke with you.  When he scores 30-45 points tonight and gives you a shot in your contests, you can thank me on Twitter or in Slack.

Soft Pitching to Attack

Next, we start looking to bats.  We start the process by finding the softer pitching.  Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers.  If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms.  Someone will answer it quickly for you.  I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50.  I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list.  NOTE:  Opponents will now be in parentheses.

Over 5.00 SIERA –  Hellickson (STL), Tillman (CLE), Teheran (SFG), Zimmermann (@SEA), Martinez (TOR)

Over 4.50 SIERA –  Garrett (@TBR), Kuhl (@MIL), Moore (@ATL), Holland (@MIN), Santana (CWS), Miranda (DET), Strahm (BOS), Liriano (2TEX), Volquez (WAS), Cobb (CIN), Montgomery (SDP), Gonzalez (@MIA), Gsellman (@LAD)

Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats

Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats.  Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score.  They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters.  I list them in order as I find them, crosscheck with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats), and then give you the best players (in CAPS) followed by the still playable players (lowercase).  If not on this list, you rarely find them in my MLB lineups.

NEW – bold players have what I’m calling #200on200 matchups.  This means the pitcher gives up a .200 iso, or better, to a particular handedness to a batter and the batter has a .200 iso, or better, on his career vs the handedness of the pitcher.  This is proving to be an ideal power matchup.  Remember, soft pitching matching up against power hitting leads to boomskies.

COL – TAPIA, STORY, desmond, lemahieu……..bvp vs Greinke – CarGo and Reynolds

NYY both – SANCHEZ, HEADLEY, JUDGE, carter

CLE both – RAMIREZ, ENCARNACION, JACKSON, KIPNIS, chisenhall, zimmer

TOR both – PEARCE, MARTIN, SMOAK, morales, donaldson, bautista

ARI both – FUENTES, DRURY, GOLDY, blanco, lamb, peralta

TEX right – GOMEZ, DESHIELDS, beltre, napoli, gallo, chirinos, mazara

BAL right – MANCINI, SMITH, CASTILLO, trumbo, kim, jones

MIN right – DOZIER, ROSARIO, ESCOBAR, CASTRO, buxton, grossman, sano

Honorable Mentions:  MIL left, LAD right, SEA both, STL, TBR both, PIT left, MIA, ATL left, HOU right/both

For more players, and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP.  Yes, membership has it’s privileges.  Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!

#DongCall!!

We played a fun little game last year where I posted a picture of my DFS MLB “Dong Call” of the day.  I tried to make the picture obscure enough it wasn’t just giving you the player’s name.  My #DongCall is pictured below.  Who is it?  Give me a follow and tweet me @ChoppoDong if you know, and tweet me yours, too!

Yesterday’s #DongCall was Nelson Cruz (as a Ranger)….and like I said yesterday “i’m more confident in this #DongCall than any last week, so it will probably shit on me.”  Well, it did.  Thanks, Nellie.