The stage is set for a late afternoon shootout at Michigan international, and your weekend research starts right here. We had a positive Pocono weekend, despite how unpredictable that race ended up being, but we can do better. Michigan is a track I feel like we have a really good read on. It tends to be somewhat predictable with a low incident rate. So let’s hop into it with a little overview of the 2 – mile oval.
2.0-mile D-shaped oval
200 laps, 400 miles
Stages: stage 1 ends lap 60; stage 2 ends lap 120; final stage ends lap 200 (unless OT)
Banking: turns: 18 degrees; straights: front stretch 12 degrees, backstretch 5 degrees
Backstretch Length: 2,242 feet
Frontstretch Length: 3,600 feet
Pit lane is 50 feet wide and contains space for 44 individual pit areas
Pit Road Speed: 45mph
Look familiar? It should! Michigan is very similar to Fontana – give or take a few degree here and there. So perhaps our best course of action would be to take a little look-see at the Fontana race earlier this year.
So the story of the day was Larson and Truex Jr. -surprise surprise! But I want to put an asterisks by the Ford drivers that performed well: Brad K, Bowyer, Joey and Blaney. Here’s the thing – Ford always brings there best stuff to Michigan, what with the Ford history in the state of Michigan. It’s kind of a “protect this house” type of thing. I expect that those four drivers will all show significant speed this weekend. You can add Harvick and Stenhouse Jr. to that list too.
We can also lean on last years races at Michigan too, since they 2017 aero package was used in those races. So let’s looked at the optimals from those races.
So, Chase Elliott and Brad K. found their way into the optimal during both races last year – and that is no surpise. Both carry superb track histories. Take a look at average running position for Michigan.
Both Chase and Brad make an appearance in the top five. While we have to take Chase’s results with a grain of salt (he only has two starts) I’ve seen enough to make those two my favorites for this weekend. Make sure you mark them and keep an eye on practice to see if they bring any speed. If they do, it could be an all in type of situation for Brad and Chase.
Also take note of Joey Logano here – whose stats are strikingly similar to Brad’s. This goes back to our “Ford brings power to Michigan” theory. While it’s been a rough go for old Joey these last couple weeks, I fully expect for a bounce back type of week for him. If that’s the case, and both Brad and Joey bring speed, it’s safe to say Ryan Blaney will be locked and loaded as well. His stats aren’t lights out here, but he is transcending his stats in 2017. Look for Blaney to build on his momentum this week.
Now let’s look for some value. Hopefully you are seeing what I am seeing in that last image. The brothers Dillon have a knack for getting it done with the speeds are high, and I would hazard to guess Michigan will be no different. I am going to be keeping a close eye on Ty Dillon this weekend, who will be underpriced and hopefully overlooked. He has been a staple value play all year and that continues this week.
Now for my favorite value-finding metric: Quality Passes. Keep in mind this shows TOTAL quality passes since 2005. Obviously the guys at the top have had more laps to make passes so the list is a bit skewed. However, you still have to be passing cars to make it on this list, which means you know how to get around Michigan. McMurray, Newman and Menard all share very similar stats at Michigan, which means we are keeping a close eye on Menard this weekend. He will be priced in the $6000s and if he can post Newman-esque results he will certainly be in the optimal. Obviously Newman and McMurray will also be solid looks this weekend as well.
I am also keeping an eye on AJ Allmendinger this week too. AJ has a very hardnosed keep-er-pinned type of driving style that can really be an advantage at Michigan. Unfortunately, that style can also be your undoing. As of late, AJ’s Michigan performances have been pretty lackluster, but I think that comes down to him getting caught with burned up equipment in long green flag runs. That will not be the case this weekend with the implementation of stage racing. AJ and co should be able to keep fresh tires on it all day and compete for a top 15 by the end of the day (he finished 17th at the 2017 Fontana race).
David Ragan is another guy worth looking at. He is a survivor at Michigan and if he can keep his nose clean against a poor starting spot, he could find his way in the optimal.
So there it is folks. Larson, Keselowski, Logano, Chase, McMurray, Newman, Menard, AJ and Ragan all top my list of drivers to watch through practice this weekend. I think the key will be a balanced line ups, as this track doesn’t often produce a single dominator. Make sure you check back Saturday night for the Sway Bar, and check back Friday for Taco’s Fast 40 where we will talk about every single driver taking the grid this Sunday.
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