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PITCHER:
*Early*
Lance McCullers (vs BAL): Vegas always has a massive hard-on for McCullers, just as they do today (-220, the highest on the board) but it would be great to see him go deeper into games. He’s only thrown over 100 pitches twice in 10 starts this season, and a lot of that is because the Astros can lean on their bullpen. The good part here is that McCullers has been great at Minute Maid Park this season, going 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA in five starts and 40 Ks in 31 innings.
Michael Pineda (vs OAK): If we take away his first start, Pineda hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER all season. The A’s own the fourth-highest K-rate (23.3%) against right-handed this season and the fifth-highest (23.7%) over the last 14 days. One thing we always have to worry about with Pineda, though, is the longevity of his starts- he’s only registered 7 innings twice in his nine starts this season, and hasn’t done that since April 16th.
Joe Ross (vs SD): I’ll take a chance against the Padres with anyone on the mound, but since Ross will have ridiculous run support behind him it makes it that much easier to get the win. The Nationals sent Ross down to Triple-A for a few weeks to work out some mechanical issues, and he came back with vengeance on Tuesday to deal 8 innings of 5-hit, 1-run baseball with 6 Ks against the Mariners. The Padres are striking out at a 24.9% clip against right-handed pitching this season (second-worst in MLB) and 25.1% clip over the last 14 days (fourth-worst in MLB over that span). UPDATE: I still like Ross from a $/PT perspective, but the run support may not be as certain with a lot of their stars out of the lineup.
Matt Shoemaker (@MIA): After three-straight quality starts and 21 Ks in his last 18.2 innings of work, it looks like Shoemaker has made his way back into our good graces. The Marlins aren’t striking out at an alarming rate, but they have been really bad at times over the last 14 days and Shoemaker does get to face the pitcher instead of the DH.
Danny Duffy (@CLE): Solid in his last four starts and one of those was against these same Indians three weeks ago to the day. Unfortunately, Duffy only had 2 Ks in that outing, but he has posted two of his higher totals (10 and 7) in each of his last two starts…albeit, against the same Yankees team. The Indians have the third-lowest K-rate (17.7%) against lefties this season so I would consider Duffy a GPP-only play.
*Late*
Clayton Kershaw (vs CHC): I’m not sure if anyone has realized this lately, but the Cubs offense hasn’t been that great, and you don’t have to go back far to find that out- they have yet to score a run in this series against the Dodgers. Kershaw had his best outing of the season on Tuesday, throwing a complete game with only 3 hits and 1 ER allowed to go along with 10 Ks. All of the early-season worries about Kershaw aren’t completely gone because the strikeouts still aren’t back up to an elite level. I’m just finding it hard to find faults in the best pitcher in the game.
Jon Lester (@LAD): Speaking of pitchers coming off complete games, let’s talk about the one opposing Kershaw today. Lester struck out 10 Giants while allowing 3 hits, 1 ER and no walks on Tuesday- that marks his third quality start in four tries. The Dodgers have improved slightly against left-handed pitching since the end of last season, but they still have issues every now and again. In addition to that, the Dodgers have struck out at a 25.2% clip over the last 14 days (third-worst in MLB over that span.) The big worry with Lester, though, is the massive home/road splits this season: 5.73 ERA on the road, 1.80 at Wrigley Field.
Johnny Cueto (vs ATL): When you take the Braves out of SunTrust Park they lose all sorts of power appeal, but they are a pain in the ass to strike out. Cueto isn’t inducing many strikeouts at AT&T Park this season but he is due for that big outing; call that wishful thinking or whatever you will, but Cueto is a good pitcher and we haven’t seen that in the box score too much yet.
Tyler Glasnow (vs NYM): If you’re trying to get a Coors Field stack together, he is the only pitcher with realistic upside. Aside from that disaster in Arizona, Glasnow has posted FDP totals of 34, 32, 33 and 28 over those five starts. It’ll be tough to match the studs on this late slate, so you better have the right bats if you choose this route.
STACKS:
*Early*
Washington Nationals (vs SD): Jhoulys Chacin is incapable of pitching in places not named Petco Park this season, as evidenced by the league-high 32 ER and 2.09 WHIP he’s allowed on the road. UPDATE: With Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Jayson Werth out of the lineup, these guys are certainly downgraded a bit.
Boston Red Sox (vs SEA): They will have the highest implied team total on the early slate, taking on Christian Bergman that allowed 14 hits, 10 ER and 4 HR in his last outing.
Kansas City Royals (@CLE): Josh Tomlin has allowed at least 7 hits in all but two of his nine starts this season. I don’t think I’ve ever recommended KC as a stack before, but that’s how much I like it.
Chicago White Sox (vs DET): Jordan Zimmermann didn’t combust on the mound in his last start, but he has allowed at least 7 hits in five of his last seven starts.
Detroit Tigers (@CHW): Big hitters in their lineup have solid BvP numbers against Miguel Gonzalez.
Milwaukee Brewers (vs ARZ): Without a doubt, the cheapest stack that has the most bang for your buck.
*Late*
None: one-off galore!
CATCHER:
*Early*
Salvador Perez (@CLE): Excellent BvP numbers (17-for-32 with 8 doubles, 1 HR) against Tomlin.
Evan Gattis/Brian McCann (@BAL): It’ll likely be Gattis getting the start since McCann (concussion) just returned from the DL yesterday, but if both of them play (with one catching and the other serving as DH) I’ll give the edge to Gattis. I feel a HR coming from him any day now and he hasn’t posted a zero since April 15th …only his second one of the entire season (33 games.)
Chris Iannetta/Chris Herrmann (@MIL): Both players are in the starting lineup, and Iannetta is especially intriguing here with 3 HR in his last four games.
Manny Pina (vs ARZ): I originally had Jett Bandy in this space, but Pina will be making his first start on Thursday since getting drilled in the elbow by a Robbie Ray fastball. Pina has the platoon advantage on left-hander Patrick Corbin and is certainly capable of going yard on a decent price tag.
*Late*
Francisco Cervelli (vs NYM): Not looking for much here, but he does have 9 hits over the last six games- most of any catcher in MLB over that span.
Yadier Molina (@COL): He’s a bit too expensive for what I like to pay at the catcher position, but he is playing in Coors Field. That place makes me vomit.
FIRST BASE:
*Early*
Jose Abreu (vs DET): Tied for most hits in MLB over the last seven days with 13 hits (3 doubles, 2 HR). Abreu also has solid short-term numbers against Zimmermann, going 5-for-9 with a double, triple and HR.
Justin Smoak/Kendrys Morales (vs TEX): Affordable, power, great matchup = the trifecta!
Ryan Zimmerman (vs SD): 5-for-16 (3 doubles, 2 HR) against Chacin. Zimmerman has been getting plenty of hits lately, but the power has been lacking. Can a familiar face get him back in the groove?
Jesus Aguilar (vs ARZ): Batting third today and he’s got massive HR upside against the lefty Patrick Corbin. Initially, I had Paul Goldschmidt on the other side of this game, but Aguilar comes at a much bigger discount.
*Late*
Lucas Duda (@PIT): I recommended Duda for so long…and he sucked. I come off the guy…he balls outrageous. I hopped back on the bandwagon at the first glimmer of hope, and I’ve been rewarded for what my mind was telling me all along. Duda has been ridiculous over the last five games, posting at least 24 FDP in four of those with 12.2 in the other one. The $3800 DK/$2800 FD price tag for all this production is begging everyone to hop on the bandwagon.
Josh Bell (vs NYM): GPP-only move, considering what Duda has been doing and comes at a cheaper price. Matt Harvey has allowed 11 HR this season, so it’s not exactly a blind toss in the wind.
SECOND BASE:
*Early*
Jed Lowrie (@NYY): Apparently, going 10-for-20 with 5 doubles, 4 RBI and 4 runs over the last five games doesn’t require an increase on his $2300 price tag on FanDuel.
Ryan Schimpf (@WSH): Joe Ross is terrible against lefties and I always love Schimpf for HR upside.
*Late*
Neil Walker (@PIT): The guy is from Pittsburgh, so one last night of some home cooking won’t hurt him. Walker belted 2 HR in the series opener, let’s see if he can do it again.
Josh Harrison (vs NYM): 13-for-32 with 2 doubles over the last 7 games. His 13 hits are the most of any second baseman over that span.
THIRD BASE:
*Early*
Mike Moustakas (@CLE): Excellent BvP numbers (7-for-20 with 3 doubles, 2 HR, 2 BB) against Tomlin
Anthony Rendon (vs SD): 9-for-18 with 3 doubles, 4 HR, 9 RBI and 6 runs over the last six games. There should be plenty of ducks on the pond for Rendon today.
*Late*
Jedd Gyorko (@COL): He’s been more comfortable against right-handed pitching for a while now, and Coors Field brings out the best in people…most of the time.
Nolan Arenado (vs STL): If you can’t tell, third base is the position to spend up on for the late slate. Coors Field should do wonders for Arenado as well.
SHORTSTOP:
*Early*
Trea Turner (vs SD): All of his 5 HR and 23 RBI have been hit against righties and all the peripheral numbers are much against them as well. The Nationals are expected to do some major damage today and Turner should be the one getting the party started at the top of the lineup.
Xander Bogaerts (vs SEA): He’s been hitting well, particularly at home with a .347 avg and .861 OPS at Fenway Park this season. Bergman is coming off his worst performance as a human being on Earth, and Bogaerts should be able to get on base a few times against him.
*Late*
Jordy Mercer (vs NYM): I like the way Mercer has been swinging the bat lately and he’s posted at least 9 FDP in six of the last seven games. I know PNC Park isn’t the great hitting environment but it’s certainly possible to get double-digit points against Matt Harvey and the Mets bullpen.
Jose Reyes (@PIT): I like him for stolen base upside tonight. Glasnow is terrible at holding runners on base so this is a nice calculated move.
OUTFIELD:
*Early*
Avisail Garcia/Melky Cabrera (vs DET): Both guys have solid BvP numbers against Zimmermann and the rest of the White Sox should be on base plenty of times for them.
Justin Upton (@CHW): He’s still way too cheap for the power upside he has at the moment. Upton can even steal some bases when everything is working out well for him.
Keon Broxton/Domingo Santana/Hernan Perez (vs ARZ): Broxton is leading off, Santana batting second and Perez in the five-hole. Odds are, most fly-by DFS players haven’t heard of these guys, but I don’t think they’ll be highly owned at all with everyone else that is on this slate. Santana can bop with the best of them and Broxton/Perez can do the same, but also have stolen base upside.
*Late*
Charlie Blackmon/Carlos Gonzalez (vs STL): We were pretty excited to stack Dodgers lefty bats against Lance Lynn last time out and then he peed in everyone’s Cheerios. I think we’ll be OK using two of the hottest hitters in the league against Lynn in the high altitude this time around. Blackmon, especially, is appealing: .400 avg at Coors Field with 5 doubles, 7 triples, 8 HR, 23 RBI in 102 plate appearances.
Adam Frazier (vs NYM): He was hitless in the weekend series until his final at-bat last night, so look for Frazier to carry that momentum into the finale tonight. I’m not sure that most people will want to pay ($4700 DK/$3900 FD) for some guy they just heard about, but you all know I’ve been on this guy back when he was at min-price…and if you don’t, go check the archives bruhhh!
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