Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in baseball; Golf however offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skillsets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more PGA updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Last weeks picks
Each week I will quickly go over my picks from the week before. In any DFS sport everyone will have good and bad weeks, but I think it is always important to analyze your key decisions. Through looking over your own decisions you can begin to see why certain things work and why others don’t and that will lead to future success.
Hideki Matsuyama – GPP (T22 – 76.5 FTPS)
Overall Matsuyama had a good week. Aside from his quintuple bogey Matsuyama played solid throughout and actually ended up with 2nd most fantasy points from any player above a 9k salary (just behind Sergio). What initially drew me to Matsuyama was I thought his ownership would be lower because of Jon Rahm being direcly below him. As the week went on and the experts continually mentioned Matsuyama as a solid play the ownership grew and he ended up being 17.82% owned in the $4 600K Draft Kings event.
Louis Oosthuizen – GPP (T2 – 97.5 FTPS)
What initially drew me to Louis Oosthuizen from a GPP perspective was the range of salary he was in. Directly above we saw popular plays in Matt Kuchar and Francisco Molinari, directly below we saw even more popular plays in Martin Kaymer and Phil Mickelson. Overall, this led to Oosthuizens ownership in the $4, 600K Draft Kings event to be 6.34%. Secondly I felt Oosthuizens game lined up well for the course, in the key stats DFS Army weighted heavily for the week Louis had gained strokes on the field. Finally, Louis has had a quietly strong season. In the seven events prior to the TPC Championship Louis had come inside the top 50 every time with two events inside the top ten. Overall playing Louis overweight to the field paid dividends as he racked up the points on his was to a T2 finish.
Martin Kaymer – Cash (T69 – 55.5 FTPS)
`As the prices came in it became inevitable that Kaymer would be the chalk cash game play. With 29 straight made cuts, great form and a terrific salary there was no real reason to not take Kaymer in cash formats. Others agreed and Kaymer was taken in 72.68% of cash games. Despite the middle of the pack finish there was no real reason to avoid Kaymer. If he didn’t perform well at 75% ownership he wasn’t killing your lineup and if he happened to perform like he is capable of teams were in for a lot of trouble.
Zach Johnson – Cash (T48 -53 FTPS)
I was genuinely surprised by Johnson’s 8.59% ownership in cash games. I understand the up and down year and how everyone flocked to Kaymer but I thought with his course history and strong performance last week more would play him. Johnson had an all right week and did his job at the $7200 price-tag; he made the cut.
DFS Army Preview– AT&T Byron Nelson
This week the PGA Tour travels to TPC Four Seasons located in Irving Texas. The event has seen a variety of player types win since its 2008 re-design. This list includes notables including Jason Day and Sergio Garcia and other tour studs such as Brendan Todd, Sang Moon Bae, and every DFS player’s favourite golfer Steven Bowditch. What I am getting at here is that a variety of different types of players have had success at this course. In 2014 Mike Weir came runner up,; you read that right, Mike Weird literally came second. Last year Brooks Koepka came runner up so it is hard to find a specific correlation of the type of skill set that can lead to success.
The 7,166 yard par 70 features just two par fives which makes the importance of par five scoring much lower for the week. With two less par fives we see two more par fours, meaning par four scoring will have a greater impact than usual.
With no other clear trends of distinct skill sets leading to success here I will be relying on shots gained: approach to largely dictate my selections. Shots gained: approach is always a very clear measure of success for any player and with two more par fours I will be keying in on the stat that much more this week. With nine of the par fours’s yardages being between 400-460 yards I will also be looking for players who have a good history on approaches between 100-175, as many approach shots will fall in this range for the week.
Picks
Byeong Hun-An – GPP/Cash (DK: $8000 FD: $7500)
An is making his first appearance here at The AT&T Byron Nelson, but since this isn’t The Masters the inexperience shouldn’t scare you away. An has been great this year with 10/10 made cuts and two top tens. An’s play has been carried by his tee-to-green game this season. In our PGA Spreadsheet that displays field adjusted statistics we can see An is third among players over $8000 in strokes gained: approaching the green behind only DJ and Jordan Spieth. An has also outperformed the field on par threes and fours while struggling in relation to the field on par fives; with only two par fives a round this week An’s disadvantage is mitigated. An has also been fantastic from the approach range I have highlighted; on tour An is 9th in approaches from 100-125 yards, and 5th in approaches from 125-150 yards. Finally at $8000 on Draft Kings I feel An might easily fall into a ‘dead range,’ he is never that high owned to begin with and I feel when people look at past leaderboards they may naturally be drawn towards creating a roster of stars and scrubs.
Smylie Kaufman – GPP Flyer (DK: $7100 FD: $6200)
After missing eight straight cuts to start the season it’s looking like Smylie has found his game. In his last three events Smylie has finished T37, T5 and T12 at the Players in one of the strongest fields we see throughout the year. It’s hard to analyze Smylie’s yearly stats because he has been a completely different player as of late in comparison to earlier in the year. What we have seen from Smylie dating back to last year is the ability to score Draft Kings points. He’ll make bogeys but when he is on he will also make plenty of birdies. Last year on tour Smylie had the 26th highest birdie average. Because of this ability to score our DFS Army Domination Station projections have Smylie within the top 10 of the field in projected Fantasy points per dollar of salary. I also think with J.J Spaun being $100 higher on Draft Kings Smylie and Nick Taylor being $200 less we could see suppressed ownership and with his pricetag and recent performance Smylie makes an excellent flyer.
Brandt Snedeker – Cash (DK: $8400 FD: $9200)
Snedeker makes a great Draft Kings cash game play on price tag alone (as we can see with the discrepancy next to Fan Duel’s pricing). At $8400 in a field like this Snedeker is too good to pass up. Much of the price were are seeing is due to Snedeker making the cut only once in his last three appearances at this event but I believe that has more to do with recent play then the course. In 2016 when Snedeker missed the cut he also missed the cut at The Player Championship and missed 4/6 cuts during this timeframe before finishing the year making 13 straight cuts. In 2015 when Snedeker came T6 at this event he came T2 the week prior. This year Snedeker has made 8/10 cuts, including four straight finishes inside the top 30. When Snedeker is hot he’s hot and with his recent form and I see him as a great cash game play. Our DFS Army Domination Station projections agree as he is projected to have the 2nd highest fantasy points per dollar of salary of players above $8000
Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles
Schnarr’s Super Picks DFS Preview – AT&T Byron Nelson
Taco Tuesday DFS PGA Podcast – Byron Nelson
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