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Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers (-1, ML: -115) – O/U: 220.5
—————-Pace> BKN: 1 – PHI: 5
OFF Efficiency> BKN: 27 – PHI: 30
DEF Efficiency> BKN: 22 – PHI: 14
Matchup:
*76ers have won all three meetings by a close margin
BKN:
*6 games over .500 ATS as the underdog and on the road
-Isaiah Whitehead (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
-Joe Harris (OUT- shoulder)
The Nets will look to avoid the season sweep and build confidence going forward to 2017-18. Brook Lopez is getting more expensive but this is one of the best matchups for a center in the NBA and he’s posted at least 43 FDP in three of the last four games. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of the last seven games.
PHI:
-Sergio Rodriguez (OUT- hamstring)
-Robert Covington (OUT- knee)
-Jahlil Okafor (OUT- knee)
The Sixers have done well in this matchup three times before, so they do have history on their side. Justin Anderson is popping up all over the Domination Station, and I believe a lot that has to do with his minutes coming a lot more frequently than they had been. The price tag on TJ McConnell has risen, and that part sucks, but he should play 35 minutes tonight with Sergio Rodriguez out. Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes make for great options at the power forward position, while Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Nik Stauskas are just as viable on a lesser scale at shooting guard.
Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-9.5, ML: -500) – O/U: 221.5
—————-Pace> ORL: 14 – CLE: 17
OFF Efficiency> ORL: 29 – CLE: 3
DEF Efficiency> ORL: 21 – CLE: 24
Matchup:
*Cavs won both meetings (@CLE: 105 – ORL: 99), (CLE: 116 – @ORL: 104)
ORL:
-Jeff Green (OUT- back)
Elfrid Payton gets that highly-coveted matchup as a point guard going up against Kyrie and the Cavs; Elf has posted big totals in four of the last five games. Nikola Vucevic makes for a good cash-game option while Terrence Ross and Aaron Gordon are viable GPP options.
CLE:
*29-38-2 ATS as the favorite
-Kyle Korver (QUESTIONABLE- foot)
*0.5 GB of #1 seed
*Front-end of a B2B, @ Boston tomorrow night
LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are the only viable Cavs’ options when all three are in the starting lineup. Keep in mind, though, if they get out to a big lead you may not see them play big minutes since a matchup with the Celtics looms tomorrow night.
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers (-2.5, ML: -140) – O/U: 206
—————-Pace> TOR: 22 – IND: 18
OFF Efficiency> TOR: 4 – IND: 15
DEF Efficiency> TOR: 8 – IND: 18
Matchup:
*Raptors have won both meetings (at home, by an average of 18 points)
TOR:
*Front-end of a B2B, @ Detroit tomorrow night
*1-game lead for #3 seed, 2.5 GB of the #2 seed
*13-8-2 ATS as the underdog, 16-20-1 ATS on the road
-PJ Tucker (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
-Kyle Lowry (OUT- wrist)
DeMar DeRozan just posted 55.8 FDP against these same Pacers on Friday, and he has been in good form over the last few games. Jonas Valanciunas has exceeded salary-based expectations in the last four games and gets a phenomenal matchup against an undersized Pacers frontline; consider Serge Ibaka in GPPs here for the same reason.
IND:
*Tied for the #8 seed
-Al Jefferson (OUT- ankle)
-Glenn Robinson III (OUT- calf)
Jeff Teague is my favorite one of the Pacers tonight, and he’s exceeded-based salary expectations in six of the last eight games. I’ll be a broken record again, and tell you that going up against Corey Joseph has been a profitable endeavor since he’s been the starting point guard. Paul George has been in playoff mode for a while now, and this is when we get him at our best. It’s also his Bobblehead Night, so he’s got a place on #NarrativeStreet. Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young aren’t bad GPP options either.
Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards (-4, ML: -170) – O/U: 217.5
—————-Pace> CHA: 19 – WSH: 11
OFF Efficiency> CHA: 14 – WSH: 9
DEF Efficiency> CHA: 12 – WSH: 20
Matchup:
*Wizards lead season series (@WSH: 109-CHA: 106), (WSH: 109-@CHA: 99), (@CHA: 98-WSH: 93)
CHA:
*1 GB for #8 seed
-Ramon Sessions (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
There aren’t too many matchups here that I’m interested in from a $/PT perspective- Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist are all interesting because of their price, but I can’t nail down who exactly that will be.
WSH:
*1 GB of #3 seed
-NO INJURIES
After posting three-straight 60+ FDP games, John Wall has stumbled in the last two. He’s too expensive on FD but much more viable on DK. I only like Wall’s matchup enough to play him so that where I’d leave it.
Chicago Bulls (-3.5, ML: -155) @ New York Knicks – O/U: 207
—————-Pace> CHI: 21 – NYK: 15
OFF Efficiency> CHI: 20 – NYK: 19
DEF Efficiency> CHI: 13 – NYK: 26
Matchup:
*Knicks have won both meetings (by an average of 14 points)
CHI:
*1 GB of #6 seed, 1-game lead for #7 seed
-Dwayne Wade (OUT for the season)
The Bulls have plenty to play for tonight, so all of their big guns are options- Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo will get plenty of minutes and production in the process. Robin Lopez keeps popping up on the Domination Station, and I’ll attribute that to the fact he’s taking on his former Knicks team and they have been quite generous to opposing centers.
NYK:
-Carmelo Anthony (QUESTIONABLE- back)
-Lance Thomas (QUESTIONABLE- hip)
-Derrick Rose (OUT- knee)
Kristaps Porzingis and Courtney Lee are probably the only options from the Knicks I would consider. They are well out of the playoff race, so it is a bit risky if this game gets out of hand.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5, ML: -190) – O/U: 211
—————-Pace> MIL: 26 – OKC: 7
OFF Efficiency> MIL: 12 – OKC: 16
DEF Efficiency> MIL: 19 – OKC: 9
Matchup:
*Bucks won the only meeting (@MIL: 98 – OKC: 94)
MIL:
-Malcolm Brogdon (OUT- back)
-John Henson (OUT- thumb)
Giannis Antetokounmpo will likely be matched up with Andre Roberson, but he’s done well in this matchup before; The Greek has posted 60+ FDP in two straight games coming into tonight. Khris Middleton has matched his salary-based expectations in four of the last five games.
OKC:
*1.5-game lead for #6 seed
*Front-end of a B2B, @ Memphis tomorrow night
*27-17-1 ATS as the favorite
*23-15-1 ATS at home
-NO INJURIES
Russell Westbrook draws a tough matchup, but he’s been fine against pretty much anyone that has been put in charge of defending him. He’s got the most consistency/upside of anyone on this slate.
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans (-2, ML: -130) – O/U: 227
—————-Pace> DEN: 8 – NO: 9
OFF Efficiency> DEN: 5 – NO: 25
DEF Efficiency> DEN: 29 – NO: 6
Matchup:
*Teams split season series (DEN: 107 – @NO: 102), (NO: 115 – @DEN: 90)
DEN:
*1.5 GB of #8 seed
*Front-end of a B2B, @ Houston tomorrow night
-Jameer Nelson (OUT- calf)
-Will Barton (OUT- foot)
-Darrell Arthur (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
The Nuggets have plenty of capable bodies that can match up against the Pelicans twin towers for most of this game, so I like that aspect of having them all on the court. With injuries to the Nuggets lineup, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris will get all the minutes they can handle.
NO:
-NO INJURIES
Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins get a fantastic matchup against the second-worst defense in the NBA. However, it’s only Cousins popping up on the Domination Station but that has a lot to do with the cheaper price tag. Jrue Holiday has been fairly consistent right around salary-expectations over the last 10 games and now he gets one of the best matchups for a point guard.
Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs (-8, ML: -345) – O/U: 193
—————-Pace> MEM: 28 – SA: 27
OFF Efficiency> MEM: 18 – SA: 7
DEF Efficiency> MEM: 7 – SA: 1
Matchup:
*Grizzlies lead season series (home team has won each time)
MEM:
*Front-end of a B2B, host Thunder tomorrow night
*1.5 GB of #6 seed
-Marc Gasol (QUESTIONABLE- foot)
-Tony Allen (QUESTIONABLE- eye)
-Andrew Harrison (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
JaMychal Green (PROBABLE- shoulder)
-Chandler Parsons (OUT- knee)
Without knowing too much about the Grizzlies’ injury situation, this is still an undesirable spot to be going on an 11-game slate. I guess Mike Conley and Zach Randolph are viable if those Qs become Os.
SA:
-LaMarcus Aldridge (QUESTIONABLE- thumb)
-Danny Green (OUT- thigh)
-Dejounte Murray (OUT- groin)
Once again, this is not a desirable position to be in but Kawhi Leonard is always a solid GPP play. The Grizzlies defense hasn’t been their usual shutdown-selves since the All-Star break, in fact, they have been one of the worst. Pau Gasol and Dewayne Dedmon could be interesting if LMA doesn’t suit up for this one.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz (-7, ML: -280) – O/U: 202
—————-Pace> POR: 12 – UTA: 30
OFF Efficiency> POR: 11 – UTA: 13
DEF Efficiency> POR: 23 – UTA: 3
Matchup:
*Teams have split season series (@POR: 113 – UTA: 104), (@UTA: 111 – POR: 88)
POR:
*1.5-game lead for #8 seed
*Back-end of a B2B
-Jusuf Nurkic (OUT- lower leg)
-Ed Davis (OUT- shoulder)
Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Al-Farouq Aminu get a small boost with so many inactives for the Jazz. It’s still not the greatest matchup on the board but it’s certainly a way to differentiate yourself in GPPs.
UTA:
*0.5-game lead for #4 seed
*16-22 ATS at home
-Rodney Hood (OUT)
-Derrick Favors (OUT)
-George Hill (OUT)
-Raul Neto (OUT)
Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward are going to get all sorts of usage tonight with all of the inactives on the Jazz. As I mentioned on today’s podcast, I have no idea who the Blazers will have to even contain Gobert and Hayward is a stud in his own right. Joe Ingles and Joe Johnson will handle most/all of Hill and Hood’s vacated minutes in such a great matchup.
Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings (-2.5, ML: -140) – O/U: 196
—————-Pace> DAL: 29 – SAC: 25
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 22 – SAC: 21
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 15 – SAC: 27
Matchup:
*Teams have split season series (SAC: 120 – @DAL: 89), (@DAL: 99 – SAC: 79)
DAL:
*Front-end of a B2B, @ LA Clippers tomorrow night
-Wesley Matthews (OUT- rest)
-Dirk Nowitzki (OUT- Achilles)
-Seth Curry (OUT- shoulder)
Harrison Barnes always saw an uptick in usage earlier this season when Dirk was out of the lineup. JJ Barea and Yogi Ferrell will see a major boost in minutes with all of the inactives for the Mavs.
SAC:
-Arron Afflalo (OUT)
-Kosta Koufos (OUT)
-Anthony Tolliver (OUT)
-Malachi Richardson (OUT- hamstring)
Buddy Hield, Willie-Cauley Stein and Skal Labissiere all have the most to gain with the Kings inactives tonight- this is where all the upside is at.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors (-13.5) – O/U: 220.5
—————-Pace> MIN: 23 – GS: 4
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 10 – GS: 1
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 25 – GS: 2
Matchup:
*Warriors lead season series (@GS: 115-MIN: 102), (GS: 116-@MIN: 108), (@MIN:103-GS: 102)
MIN:
*Back-end of a B2B
-Nemanja Bjelica (OUT- foot)
-Zach LaVine (OUT- knee)
Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio should all have a lot of fun (err…) tonight running up and down the court with the Warriors, but is this the right matchup to play them? People may have felt the same way around this same time last year when the T-Wolves went into Oakland and beat the Warriors. Hey, there was no KD for the Warriors in that game either. Gorgui Dieng keeps popping on the Domination Station, and I get it- he’s been amazing since Bjelica went down with an injury and actually been better on the road.
GS:
*3.5-game lead for #1 seed
*Front-end of a B2B, @ Phoenix tomorrow night
-Kevin Durant (OUT- knee)
-Kevin Looney (QUESTIONABLE- hip)
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are all firmly in play against the Baby Wolves. Andre Iguodala and Matt Barnes work here as well. Not to be short about the whole thing, but we all know the deal with the Warriors.
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