We are a day out from the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway and my spirits are high, we are poised for a frustrating day due to the rain, but I think it will be profitable none the less. If you’ve got an hour and a half to kill, make sure you check out the podcast I recorded last night with my colleague Taco. We go over each and every driver in the field and give our thoughts. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
For a more in-depth look at Bristol as a track, check out my article from earlier this week here. For now lets look into what I think will be the top plays, fades and values moving into this week.
Top Plays
Kyle Busch – Kyle is starting to feel like a staple in my top plays, but it’s because the stats always seem to line up perfectly for him. Kyle is perpetually over owner week to week, but I am hoping we will see less of that for a couple reasons.His season has been unremarkable so far, and I am hoping the field has a sour taste in their mouth with respect to Kyle. He is also the the most expensive driver on the slate, which always carries a negative stigma to the public. His results at Bristol last year were miserable at a glance, but if you look closer you will see he actually ran really well before wrecking. I am hoping all of this pushes his ownership lower than usual. Low ownership coupled with my feeling that Joe Gibbs as a whole was able to make a huge leap in the last two weeks. Busch had a rocket in practice and is probably the best driver in the field at Bristol, and especially when we consider how unfamiliar this race is going to feel for the drivers. I think Kyle will compete for a win and lead a ton of laps doing so. He is starting seventh, so for this to pay out we will need to see some domination so proceed with caution.
Matt Kenseth – I can hear you groan as you read that name because Kenseth has been pathetic this season. He only has 4 lead lap finishes so far this year and has struggled every single race. That said, Joe Gibbs looks strong this week in practice, and even showed speed in the xFinity race. Kenseth starts back in 22nd with a tremendous track history. I expect Kenseth to hang back for the first two segments before emerging in the top five towards the end of the race. I don’t think he will dominate, but his potential for place differential points is high. I like Kenseth as a top five contender with a chance to compete for a win.
Denny Hamlin – As we talked about in the podcast, for all the same reason I like Kenseth, I like Hamlin this week too. He’s $300 cheaper and starts 6 positions higher and will probably go a bit overlooked this week. Like his teammates, I think he has a great potential to turn his season around this week, and his track history supports that. It’s a weird concept, but I like him both as a stack with Kenseth or a pivot off him, depending on your strategy and game type.
Kyle Larson – I have really wrestled with this over the past day, and may thoughts may changed, but at the time of publishing I like Larson as a boom or bust dominator play. My understanding is that Larson’s team is really counting on the top line of the race track becoming fast as the race progresses, and they are setting their car up to plan for that. His practice times were abysmal but that is only because he spent the whole time trying to run the top lines, while everyone else flew by on the bottom. I don’t think Larson will lead much at the start of the race, but he should stick around the top five all race with potential to dominate later in the day. I will update my thoughts on Larson as the weekend progresses, so make sure you keep your nose in the Slack forums.
Joey Logano – Another guy who is a bit of a staple in my top plays, but as I said in the podcast – he is my second most likely dominator. Starting 5th isn’t ideal, but I think he will get to the front quick. Logano has morphed into a fantastic survival type drivers. He stays out of trouble for the most part and will benefit from the unpredictability of the weekend. His car looks serviceable in practice, and Penske for sure has had the best cars this season. His record at Bristol has been great and I think that continues this week.
Fades
My only obvious fade this week seems to be Truex Jr. He is starting 3rd and has never had success here. I am comfortable have minimal exposure to him, if not a full fade.
Values
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Stenhouse is a standout driver at Bristol who seems to find his way to the top ten every year. He is going to be super highly owned, so fading him isn’t out of the question – but I don’t think I will be doing that. I expect him to compete for a top 15 and maybe sneak into the top ten which gives him legitimate 7x potential.
David Ragan – Ragan hasn’t looked particularly good so far this weekend, but he’s a survivor. He finds away to finish races at Bristol and at $6100, that is all he really needs to do to hit value.
AJ Allmendinger – Starting 25th at $6500 makes AJ a great play this weekend. He has an average running position since 2013 of 18th. A handful of fast laps on top of an 18th place finish will be enough to make AJ a good play – and I think 18th is a floor for him if he can stay out of trouble.
Paul Menard – If you want to pivot off of AJ, Menard is your driver. Serviceable speed in practice served with the highest driver rating in his price range makes Menard a great play. My one concern here is Menard is a magnet for contact, so his indecent exposure is a little high, but if we are playing the stats – Menard is a smart play.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. A couple other drivers we are going to talk about in the Slack forum are Erik Jones and Chase Elliott and a s always, I will always have more to add so I will be updating my thoughts on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good look this week, and let’s make some cash.