Welcome to a quick-hitting column designed to get your DFS MLB research pointed in the right direction. Many of us don’t have the time in our days to pour over every detailed baseball statistic when trying to build our own winning lineups. As a result a lot of us turn to lineup sellers and providers for convenience. In the DFSArmy, we believe there is no better satisfaction in building your own competitive lineup. By teaching you the fundamentals of construction, and providing some time-saving research, we are attempting to reassure our members that it CAN BE DONE! Building winning lineups doesn’t have to take all day.
If you haven’t seen our early season content, you need to look at how far we’ve come. Every other day, you will see an alternating format between Al Walsh of “Walsh’s Way” and Adam Burns of “Analytic’s Corner.” These slate breakdowns are about the best I’ve seen in a few years of scouring the web looking for a way to make my research more efficient.
Quick Glance
Quick refresh on the columns. Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome. Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win. Green is good. Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters. Again, green is good.
MLB Pitching – Foundation to Winning Lineups
Noah Syndergaard (NYM) – Your obvious chalk pitcher tonight for cash games. GPPs, however, call for a decision. Do you want Coors bats? If so, no Noah for you! Is there a viable lower cost pitcher? There was last night. The contrarian might see other parks in equally yummy spots and think about going there over Coors for his differentiation. The cash gamer likely doesn’t deviate.
Dylan Bundy (BAL) – More than $3000 on FD cheaper than Thor, Bundy brings something to the table tonight. Vegas says he doesn’t carry a ton of risk in that BAL should win the game. His KScore is 479 compared to Syndergaard’s 510, so it’s close. And, Bundy has shown good form recently. To add, he draws the Rays tonight, a team striking out a ton early this year. Very boom or bust matchup as the Rays also have been hitting for power when they connect.
Vincent Velasquez (PHI) – The old double V gets to take the mound after last night’s rain out. Another boom or bust pitcher, VV has an elite KScore at exactly 500. We get slight Vegas support and a low game total for runs. This one might carry more risk due to the history with the Marlins, but it also carries more upside for GPPs.
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Who to Attack with Bats
In a simple list form, these are your pitchers running over a 5.00 SIERA: Latos (TOR), Santiago (MIN)
These are running over 4.50: Glasnow (PIT), Chatwood (COL)
Simply put, we want to load up on the hot hitting bats facing these running poorly pitchers.
Building winning lineups is as simple as starting the best pitching and targeting the worst pitching with your bats. People love to overthink this stuff. And while outliers in lineups do exist, playing the odds from Vegas will lead you in the right direction more times than not.
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MLB Hitting – Bats for Your Winning Lineups
Here we look for the higher implied MLB totals out of Vegas in terms of scoring runs. And, where possible, we try to focus on the side of the plate the pitcher shows weakness. Sometimes he shows weakness to both sides.
Primary
COL neither. Roark has really subdued both sides of the plate when it comes to batting average against. Many will run to Rockies bats. It will be interesting to see which trend plays out…..opp avg or “The Coors Effect.” Reynolds, Parra, Gonzalez, Blackmon, Wolters
WAS neither. Different situation here as the averages don’t flash a particular advantage; however, they don’t suggest a disadvantage either. Chatwood is on our SIERA list and should be safe to target with: TURNER, Harper, Zimmermann, Murphy
ARI neither. What a trend. High implied totals and no dominant opponent average to capitalize on. Still, hitters’ park and a team on a roll suggest: TOMAS, PERALTA, Owings, Goldschmidt, Pollock
TEX neither. This is one I’d actually fade. I’m ok with being wrong here should the Rangers break out. They will break out before long. But, they are also ice cold now and Jared Weaver likely shuts them down. I’m fading. If you must, Gallo and Odor.
SDP both. Finally a decent matchup. Godley gives up some average to opposing bats. Cahill (opposing pitcher tonight) really kind of doesn’t. Look to: Margot or Solarte
Secondary
STL righties (provided weather), CHC both, MIA lefties, BAL lefties.
These are your focus spots tonight. Look into their numbers and roster the best from each lineup you can. I like OBP as a stat because it shows you players NOT MAKING OUTS, which is of primary importance in MLB. If any of the above made you feel skimmed or confused, read through my Top 10 Ways to Win at Daily Fantasy Baseball and you will see a more detailed description of my process.
Final Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter friendly parks. And, don’t forget to use your code OPENINGDAY when signing up for that 7 day pass at DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related.
We played a fun little game last year where I posted a picture of my “Dong Call” of the day. I tried to make the picture obscure enough it wasn’t just giving you the player’s name. Today, I’m doing that again if you scroll back up and look at the lead picture. Who is it? Give me a follow and tweet me @ChoppoDong if you know!