Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
We had a pretty middling night with regards to the free squares last night. Our pitcher free square was Jameson Taillon who put together a 17.05 DKFP performance. Our free square of the night was Tyler Collins who put in a 6 DKFP performance. The bright spot for us was second baseman Tyler Saladino who had a nice night of 10 DKFP.
Tonight
After a wild 15-game slate last night we have a much more manageable 8-game slate on this Saturday night. We do not have Coors on the docket or a ton of high priced arms which means ownership should be fairly spread out tonight. Let’s take a look at a couple value picks I like to round our your lineups for tonight.
Free Squares
- Joe Musgrove SP HOU ($7,400)
- There are a ton of playable pitchers tonight in the $7,000-$8,000 salary range. Out of all those guys, my favorite of the bunch is Houston pitcher, Joe Musgrove. Musgrove and the Astros are currently -152 favorites right now and the Oakland Athletics currently have an implied run-total sitting at right around 3.82 runs. Musgrove has already taken the mound 4 times this season and he has failed to reach double digits in each of those games. I know that does not inspire much confidence for a Musgrove pick, but let’s take a look at his numbers from the 2016 season and compare them with this year’s numbers so far: 3.98 SIERA vs 4.73 SIERA, 4.04 xFIP vs 4.77 xFIP, 21.5 K% vs 13.8 K%. All his numbers are a bit higher than last year except for hi strikeout rate which has gone down this year. I still think Musgrove can pull it together especially against a team like the Athletics. Vegas still has some confidence in him giving the Astros a fairly high moneyline and a low implied run total for the Athletics. I am going to roll out Musgrove as my SP2 on Draftkings as I think he will have a bounce-back game tonight.
- Mike Moustakas 3B KC ($3,100)
- One of the things that has really blown my mind on Draftkings this year is the salary stagnation on Mike Moustakas.He is still priced to low for me so I am going to lock him in again tonight. The Kansas City royals will take on the Minnesota Twins and pitcher Phil Hughes tonight in a game in which the Royals have an implied team total sitting at right around 4.18 runs. Moustakas is having a really solid season and the only reason I can see his price being so low is due to the fact that his team is one of the worst hitting teams in the MLB. He makes a great one off play especially when he gets to go up against a pitcher like Phil Hughes. Against righties this season The Moose has the following numbers: .356 ISO, .273 BABIP, .424 wOBA, and 179 wRC+. Yea he has some absolutely insane numbers this year against righties and his only priced at $3,100. Phil Hughes is Phil Hughes which means he is never a pitcher I fear taking hitters against and that remains true with Moustakas tonight. I don;t think I am going to have too many Royals stacks per se, but I am going to have a ton of exposure to Moustakas as a one-off tonight.
- AJ Pollock OF ARI ($4,500)
- Value outfielders are a bit of barren wasteland tonight, so for the outfielder position, I am going to pick a stud that I really like tonight. AJ Pollock and the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Colorado Rockies and pitcher Tyler Anderson. They will be playing in the friendly hitting confines of Chase Field tonight. The D’Backs have an implied run-total sitting at right around 4.7 runs tonight. AJ Pollock is having a great year so far, and he has been especially hot as of late. I think that will continue tonight as he gets to go out against a lefty in Tyler Anderson. Pollock has the following numbers against lefties this season so far: .344 ISO, .276 BABIP, .390 wOBA, and 137 wRC+. Let’s take a look at how counterpart Tyler Anderson has fared pitching against righties this season: .398 wOBA, 3.90 xFIP, and a 22.2 K%. As you can see Pollock has been crushing lefty pitchers, and Anderson has had his struggles so far against the righty bats. I do not think Anderson is terrible by any means as he still has a high K%, but this is not a great matchup for him tonight. I expect the D’Backs to be one of the highest owned stacks, and Pollock to be one of the highest owned players tonight. I am still going to roll Pollock in on cash games where I can afford him because I love his upside tonight. I still think you can play him in tournaments as well.
Free Square of the Night
I think this is one fo the better Saturday slates that we have had in awhile. Not a ton of games with huge total, and a lot of differetn pitching options on the table. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with old reliable Mike Moustakas tonight! Good luck tonight everyone!
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