Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Tonight
We did not have any free squares posted yesterday, but we return on this short Thursday slate. There are only 4 games on the main slate tonight for Draftkings which means we are going to have to get a little creative with our free squares as the player pool is extremely limited. Let’s dive in and find some plays we like tonight:
Free Squares
- Adam Wainwright SP STL ($7,300)
- On this slate tonigth pitcher is kind of a barren wasteland as their are no plays in which I would call true value plays. Regardless one of the picthers I really like tonight is Adam Wainwright. Wainwright and the Cardinals will be taking on the Toronto Blue Jays at Busch Stadium tonight. The Cardinals are currently -165 favorites, and the Blue Jays have an implied run total of right around 3.73 runs. Waino has already picthed 4 times this year with two solid outings and two not so great outings. I think he can have a solid outing tonight with Vegas giving him pretty favorable numbers. Let’s take a look at Waino’s numbers for the year: 24.4 K%, 6.7 BB%, 3.40 SIERA, 3,14 xFIP, .436 wOBA to lefties, and .385 wOBA to righties. His numbers are a bit all over the board this year as he a good K%/BB% numbers but his wOBA numbers are a bit high. His SIERA and xFIP numbers are both pretty solid though. On a small slate like tonight I don’t think you are going to fall in love with any of the so-called value positions but I like the matchup for Wainwright the best. He is relatively affordable and has some good Vegas peripherial which makes him my favorite “value” pitcher of the day.
- Austin Hedges C SDP ($3,000)
- Austin Hedges and the San Diego Padres will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks and pitcher Taijuan Walker tonight at Chase Field. The Padres currently have an implied run total sitting ar right around 4.57 runs. Hedges has been quite the bright spot for the Padres this season by putting in a solid season so far. He has the following numbers this season against righties: .372 ISO, .320 wOBA, and a 101 wRC+. He has shown he has tremdous power with 6 home runs on the season so far. He bats a little bit further down in the lineup than I would traditionally like for a value play, but I think his potential upside makes up for that. He will be facing picther Taijuan Walker who has had the following number against righties this season: .318 wOBA, 14.7 K%, and a 5.20 xFIP. I would say Walker is having a mediocre season so far and defintely is a pitcher we can target aganinst especially in the friendly hitting confines of Chase Field. Catcher has always been one of my favorite positions to take a value player at, and with Hedges affordable price I am going to lock him in tonight.
- Matt Joyce OF OAK ($2,400)
- Shocking that Matt Joyce makes the free sqaures again, but his price and matchup are too good for me to pass up tonight. Matt Joyce and the Athletics will take on Ricky Nolasco and the Los Angeles Angels tonight. The Athletics currently have an implied run total sitting at right around 3.85 runs. It is a bit of a low run total for the Athletics tonigh, but I am not targeting the team as a whole more looking at the individual matchup for Joyce. Joyce hasn’t had quite the season I have been expecting yet, but he has had a few solid games on the game log. He has struggled a bit against righties this season which is a bit out of character for him as Joyce is usually a guy who crushes righties. I think as the season progresses we will see his numbers improve against righties as they have in the past. One reason why I think Joyce can get back on track against Nolasco is his BvP numbers against him. He has the following stat line against Nolasco in his career 9AB, .556/.600/1.444, 1 SB, and 2 HR’s. I am not one to get overly attached to BvP numbers, but I think its worth taking a chance on Joyce tonight especially at his almost minimum salary. Be sure to check in a confirm he is in the lineup tonight.
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Free Square of the Night
Really short sate tonight, and one that is really going to test your lineup construction skills. In saying that I still think there is an opportunity to put together some solid lineups tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with pitcher Adam Wainwright! Good luck tonight DFS Army!
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