Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Recap
We really do not have much to say about last nothing other than the free squares did not go as planned. Amir Garret got absolutely shelled by the Brewers. Andrew Toles and Jacob Turner did not do much at the plate either last night. In a sport as volatile as a baseball these things are going to happen. We need to learn from our mistakes and keep trusting the process for the next day.
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Tonight
There is not better slate than today to get back on the winning side of things tonight. We have a monster 14-game on the docket for this Tuesday will both Coors field and Kershaw in play today. We are going to need some to find some value plays tonight if we want to construct some solid lineups. Let’s take a look at who I am targeting for value plays tonight:
Free Squares
- Wade Miley SP BAL ($6,900)
- Wade Miley and the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Camden Yards tonight. The Orioles and Miley are currently -154 favorites. The Rays have an implied run total of right around 3.56 runs. Wade Miley has already pitched in 3 games this season and he is having a stellar start to the season so far. Throughout most of his career Miley has not been a great pitcher, but as we have seen this season he has improved his strikeout rate which makes him a much more attractive option for MLB DFS purposes. I know it has only been 3 games in which he has pitched this season but let’s just take a look at how his numbers have been this year so far: 33.0 K%, 11.1 BB%, .162 BABIP, 2.91 xFIP, 3.01 SIERA, .250 wOBA to lefties, and .223 wOBA to righties. Now I obviously do not think those numbers are going to hold for Miley and we will likely see a regression here coming up soon. I do think though for the time being in the right matchup like tonight he can make a solid SP2 option on Draftkings. He is priced just below 7k tonight and Vegas has a favorable moneyline and opposing team implied run total for Miley tonight. You combine that with his uptick in strikeouts, and recent form I think Miley makes an excellent play tonight.
- Mike Moustakas 3B KC ($3,200)
- If you have been reading the free squares you know there is always a pretty good chance that Mike Moustakas may end up on the squares. He makes his way of the free squares again tonight as he and the Royals will take on the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Dylan Covey at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Royals currently have an implied run-total sitting at right around 4.39 runs. I would say Moustakas is having a pretty solid year so far with some solid outings filling his game log. I think I have gone over The Moose’s stats from over the years quite a bit so let’s dive into his stats from this year against righties: .333 ISO, .256 BABIP, .411 wOBA, and 172 wRC+. As you can obviously see he has been crushing against lefties so far this season. He is going up against pitcher Dylan Covey who has the following numbers against lefties this season: .367 wOBA, 4.57 xFIP, 3.9%, and .261 BABIP. Covey is not a pitcher I fear at all, and I am going to load up on Moustakas tonight. He is still priced what I think at a way too low salary for what he brings to the table. Do not overthink this play and use Moustakas as a one-off tonight, or if you are feeling a bit contrarian maybe play a Royals stack against a bad pitcher.
- Mitch Haniger OF SEA ($3,400)
- Another guy who has been off to a hot start to this season is Seattle outfielder Mitch Haniger. Haniger and the Mariners will take on the Detroit Tiger and pitcher Jordan Zimmerman tonight at Comerica Park. The Mariners currently have an implied run total sitting right around 4.48 runs. Like I said in the opener Haniger is having a great season so far for the Mariners with a bunch of solid games on his game log. I usually do not like taking righty vs righty but let’s take a look at the numbers for Haniger this season: .246 ISO, .422 BABIP, .442 wOBA, and 201 wRC+. Small sample size no doubt, but we have to be feeling good about the matchup for Haniger tonight. Jordan Zimmerman, on the other hand, has had two rough starts in a row and has had the following numbers against righties so far this season: .344 wOBA, .389 BABIP, and 6.01 xFIP. He is definitely a guy we can look to target batters against even including righties. All the numbers seem to be favoring Haniger tonight including our DFS Army VIP Lineup Page which has a DFSA Grade of 67.60. I love when the numbers and my gut instinct on players are aligned. Haniger is still very affordable and offers a ton of upside at his price tonight. He will most likely be batting second in the order, and I think the Mariners can hang some runs on Zimmerman tonight which would be good news for Haniger owners.
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Free Square of the Night
We have a pretty wild slate tonight with both Kershaw and Coors on the docket tonight. This has the potential to be a very high scoring slate. There a ton of opportunities to win some big money across the industry tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! Without further ado let’s get to the first free square of the week. With my free square pick, I am going to go with outfielder Mitch Haniger! Good luck tonight DFS Army!
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