Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
Tonight
I hope everyone had a good weekend and are ready to get back into the swing of things for this week. We had a pretty solid week with the free squares, and I hope we can carry that over to this week. We start off the week with a solid 9-games slate. This is a pretty interesting slate we have tonight with not a lot of high-salaried arms, but we do have Coors field in play tonight. Let’s take a look at some value plays:
Free Squares
- Amir Garrett SP CIN ($6,700)
- We have a couple pitchers tonight that are all hovering around the $6-$7,000ish range that we could play. Out of that bunch, my favorite play is going to be Amir Garrett. Garrett and the Reds currently are -114 favorites, and will take on the Milwaukee Brewers who have an implied run total of 4.16. This is Garrett’s first year in the big leagues, and so far he has fared pretty well. He has pitched in the 3 games this season with the following totals of 23.10, 21.40, and 30.95 DKFP. He also had the following numbers in AAA ball for the Reds last season: 19.7 K%, 11.3 BB%, and a 4.01 xFIP. The scouting reports are all very high on Garrett and there is no doubt that he has a major league arm. If I were the Reds I would be very pleased with how the season has gone for Garrett so far. This is going to be a tougher matchup for Garrett tonight against the Brewers, but they also are prone to strikeouts which will help Garrett’s upside. I think Garret provides the most K potential of all the guys in the value salary range. We have a solid DFSA Grade of 63.35 according to our DFS Army VIP Lineup Page. There has been line movement in favor of Garret and the Reds and he is the guy I will be on most as an SP2 on Draftkings.
- Justin Turner 3B LAD ($3,400)
- Justin Turner and the Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the San Francisco Giants and pitcher Matt Cain tonight at AT&T Park. The Dodgers have an implied run total of right around 4.38 runs. Justin Turner has been having an okay year as he started out with some decent games but has gone a bit cold as of late. I think tonight’s matchup provides him with a nice opportunity to get back on track tonight. I know I don’t usually make a point of playing righties vs righties but Turner is one of those rare reverse split types of players. He had the following numbers against righties last season: .258 ISO, .322 BABIP, .385 wOBA, and a 146 wRC+. On the mound tonight facing the Dodgers and Turner is pitcher Matt Cain. Cain has had an okay season, but tonight poses a tough matchup against a solid Dodgers lineup, According to our DFS Army VIP Lineup Page we have a DFSA Grade of 65.89 for Turner. We also have him projected to hit 3rd in the Dodgers lineup which will allow him a ton of opportunity for fantasy production. I love the matchup tonight for Turner and do not mind a Dodgers stack tonight as well.
- Andrew Toles OF LAD ($2,900)
- I talked about liking a Dodgers stack in Justin Turner’s write up, and with the addition of Toles on the free squares, you can tell I really like the Dodgers tonight. Toles comes into the game having a bit of a slow year, but his price and matchup are just too good for me to pass on tonight. He gets to take on righty Matt Cain and he had the following numbers against righties last season: .185 ISO, .406 BABIP, .375 wOBA, 139 wRC+. Those are some pretty solid numbers, and while Toles is definitely not having the greatest year so far we have him primed for a good night tonight. Matt Cain is not particularly good against either lefties or righties but really struggled against lefties last season with a .386 wOBA on the year. Toles is your classic platoon guy at the moment and one we like to target against righties. It will be interesting tonight to see where he bats in the order. According to our DFS Army VIP Lineup Page we have him projected to bat 7th and give him a DFSA Grade of 45.98. I have also seen some projections where they have him batting a top of the order. I absolutely love him if he bats first obviously, but do not mind if he bats a little bit further down in the order. I would just make sure he is going to be in the lineup, but I am pretty certain he will be. He makes a nice one-off play at his price tonight, and as I said before I don’t mind a Dodgers stack if you are trying to find a non-Coors stack.
Free Square of the Night
We are definitely going to be putting on our Dodger hats for the free square picks tonight. Make sure to keep up to date with starting lineups as the Dodgers can sometimes wait forever to provide a line. This should be a fun slate tonight as I think pitching ownership will be a bit spread out tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! Without further ado let’s get to the first free square of the week. I am going to go with the Dodgers 3rd baseman Justin Turner! Good luck tonight everyone! Let’s have a good week!
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