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Dallas Mavericks (-3.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 206
—————-Pace> DAL: 29 – PHI: 6
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 21 – PHI: 30
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 11 – PHI: 19
Matchup:
Mavericks won the only meeting (@DAL: 113 – PHI: 95)
Mavericks have won five straight vs Sixers (3-2 ATS)
DAL:
11-5 ATS as the favorite
Wesley Matthews (PROBABLE- calf)
We’re still not getting massive fantasy point outputs from the Mavericks, but Dirk Nowitzki is the closest thing that we’ve got. For the price, Dirk has actually been pretty good over the last six games but if we want to make a fuss, he’s kind of trending in the wrong direction and that’s got to do with somebody that just came back to the lineup after a brief hiatus…
This will be the first time that Nerlens Noel returns to Philadelphia as a member of the Mavericks. He will likely get a standing ovation and be all fired up for this one. The only thing here is that Noel is recovering from a minor injury and may not get as much run as usual.
Now that Wesley Matthews is back in the lineup that makes Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes and JJ Barea all fade candidates.
PHI:
36-24-1 ATS as the underdog
19-9 ATS vs Western Conference
Joel Embiid (OUT for the season- knee)
Dario Saric has done this much better at home than the road since becoming the Sixers’ Fonz. Eyyyyy!
We talked about all the return narrative for Noel, but Justin Anderson should be hyped for this matchup against his former team as well. He’s only a deep GPP tourney option, but a calculated one at that.
Jahlil Okafor has been playing much better of late. Both he and Richaun Holmes may get a little fired up to see their former teammate in the building.
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards (-6.5) – O/U: 211.5
—————-Pace> CHI: 21 – WSH: 11
OFF Efficiency> CHI: 24 – WSH: 9
DEF Efficiency> CHI: 16 – WSH: 18
Matchup:
Wizards lead season series (@CHI: 106 – WSH: 95), (WSH: 107 – @CHI: 97), (@WSH: 101 – CHI: 99)
CHI:
Dwayne Wade (OUT for the season- elbow)
Cameron Payne (QUESTIONABLE- foot)
Jimmy Butler will do nearly all the heavy lifting with D-Wade done for the season. Luckily, he’ll get this new era of his life off with a favorable matchup against Otto Porter, whom he’s already posted sickening 64.1 FDP against this season.
Rajon Rondo has been quite successful with FDP totals of 36.4 and 40.2 since getting the keys back to the Bulls offense. His price really has not risen much on FanDuel since hitting upwards of 7x, so you might as well keep rolling him out.
I may gouge my own eyes out for this one, but Nikola Mirotic has played well in the last two games posting FDP totals of 36.2 and 25. He’s played 29 and 28 minutes in those games- that’s great and all, but we’ve seen him get yanked back to bench plenty of times before after great outings. Since we’re looking for a glimmer of hope, Mirotic did post a double-double (39.7 FDP) against the Wizards in their first meeting of the season way back on November 12th.
WSH:
John Wall (PROBABLE- foot)
There’s not one Wizards player I’d prefer over the other, so that makes them all GPP options. It does go without saying that John Wall is a safe cash game play, but I don’t play cash games. I need tourney upside!
Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons (-3.5) – O/U: 199.5
—————-Pace> TOR: 22 – DET: 25
OFF Efficiency> TOR: 4 – DET: 23
DEF Efficiency> TOR: 13 – DET: 9
Matchup:
Teams split season series (@TOR: 109 – DET: 91), (DET: 102 – @TOR: 101)
Pistons have covered six of the last nine vs Raptors
Seven of the last nine Pistons/Raptors games have gone OVER the total
TOR:
7-9 (outright) on B2Bs
11-8-2 ATS as the underdog
14-19-1 ATS on the road
Kyle Lowry (OUT- wrist)
We have been attacking the Pistons with point guards all season so Corey Joseph may be the sneaky play that we’re all looking for here. Other than Corey Jo, it’s tough to get excited about a Raptors team that is on the back-end of a B2B against a Pistons team that has been solid at home.
DET:
22-14 ATS as the favorite
21-14 ATS at home
NO INJURIES
Andre Drummond could have a big game tonight, and we have been waiting for a while…two games, to be exact. He’s only played a combined 47 minutes in those last two games, so he should be well rested.
Tobias Harris is popping up all over our Domination Station today, and that comes on the same day the Pistons announced he’ll be in the starting lineup for the rest of the season. Typically, we have liked Harris a lot more when coming off the bench, but it hasn’t really mattered much nowadays.
Boston Celtics (-9) @ Brooklyn Nets – O/U: 220.5
—————-Pace> BOS: 14 – BKN: 1
OFF Efficiency> BOS: 8 – BKN: 28
DEF Efficiency> BOS: 14 – BKN: 28
Matchup:
Celtics won both meetings (@BOS: 122 – BKN: 117), (BOS: 111 – @BKN: 92)
BOS:
20-26-1 ATS as the favorite
20-15-1 ATS on the road
Isaiah Thomas (OUT- knee)
With IT2 out for the Celtics, that makes Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart fantastic options that I would place above many other choices. The Celtics are taking on the team running the fastest pace in the NBA, in addition to having the third-worst defense. Make sure you have some Celtics!
Terry Rozier plays for the Celtics, and it’s his birthday…on St. Patrick’s Day.
BKN:
0-12 (outright) on B2Bs
Trevor Booker (OUT- leg)
Sean Kilpatrick (OUT- hamstring)
Joe Harris (OUT- concussion)
I was shocked to see which Nets were inactive for tonight’s game, but the day isn’t over yet. I’m still waiting for some of the bigger names to be ruled out so I’ll just wait for those to come out before showing my hand here.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Miami Heat (-4.5) – O/U: 208.5
—————-Pace> MIN: 27 – MIA: 20
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 11 – MIA: 19
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 21 – MIA: 5
Matchup:
Heat won the only meeting (MIA: 115 – @MIN: 113)
Heat have covered four of their last five vs Timberwolves
MIN:
18-23 ATS as the underdog
13-18 ATS on the road
Nemanja Bjelica (OUT- foot)
Lance Stephenson (OUT- ankle)
Zach LaVine (OUT for the season- knee)
Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng are two guys that are more than capable of taking on this Miami frontline. If you’re going to attack them anywhere, that’s the sweet spot.
Shabazz Muhammad also gets some consideration since he’s dirt cheap and will see plenty of minutes with all of the injuries to this T-Wolves roster.
MIA:
21-12 ATS at home
14-6 ATS as the favorite
15-4 ATS in their last 19 games
20-10 ATS vs teams with a losing record
17-6 ATS in March home games over the last three seasons
NO INJURIES
Hassan Whiteside is starting to get back in our good graces, but I still don’t feel like the GPP upside is there just. He can definitely get there against the T-Wolves, and if you’re going to take the chance that he gets 6x value this might be the time to do it.
Houston Rockets (-5) @ New Orleans Pelicans – O/U: 227.5
—————-Pace> HOU: 4 – NO: 9
OFF Efficiency> HOU: 2 – NO: 27
DEF Efficiency> HOU: 12 – NO: 7
Matchup:
Rockets won both meetings (@HOU: 122 – NO: 100), (HOU: 129 – @NO: 99)
Rockets have won seven of their last 10 vs Pelicans
Seven of the last 10 Pelicans/Rockets games have gone UNDER the total
HOU:
23-11 ATS on the road
23-9 ATS vs teams with a losing record
NO INJURIES
James Harden can basically do whatever he wants against this Pelicans team, so the only problem becomes, will he do it too quickly? This Rockets team IS going to run the Pelicans out of the gym tonight and every other night until they change their roster; the Pelicans have too many big bodies to keep up with the Rockets in the transition game.
As always, the Rockets’ side pieces are all in play for GPPs but we never have any idea who is going to be the most lucrative.
NO:
Jarrett Jack (OUT- knee)
Omer Asik (OUT- illness)
Despite getting their asses kicked, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins should be able to have themselves a big game anyways. The first game that Boogie played with the Pelicans was against this same Rockets team; they got smoked but Boogie still had a big game anyways. Trying to predict whether it’s AD or Boogie that will have the big game this time will drive you mad…it could be either one, or even both.
Orlando Magic @ Phoenix Suns (-2.5) – O/U: 221
—————-Pace> ORL: 19 – PHX: 3
OFF Efficiency> ORL: 29 – PHX: 22
DEF Efficiency> ORL: 23 – PHX: 27
Matchup:
Suns won the only meeting (PHX: 92 – @ORL: 87)
Suns have won four of the last five vs Magic (3-2 ATS)
ORL:
5-13 ATS after allowing 115+ points
Jodie Meeks (QUESTIONABLE- thumb)
The Magic played last night so I believe we could see a couple of their vets sit this one out. It’s all highly speculative but I would rather wait and see what happens first before making that decision. If we don’t get word before lineup lock (which we probably won’t), I would fade the Magic altogether.
PHX:
3-9 ATS as the favorite
17-6 ATS vs Eastern Conference
Eric Bledsoe (OUT for the season- rest)
Brandon Knight (QUESTIONABLE- back)
Dragan Bender (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
Derrick Jones Jr (QUESTIONABLE- back)
Leandro Barbosa (QUESTIONABLE- illness)
Devin Booker and TJ Warren continue to close this meaningless season out with enthusiasm, so I would honestly have a piece of both.
Alan Williams will continue to get big minutes down the stretch of the season and he’s put up respectable fantasy point totals in every game but one this month.
Tyler Ulis will likely be the highest-owned player of the night, and for good reason. With Eric Bledsoe done for the season and Brandon Knight uncertain, Ulis is the only true point guard (that is worth mentioning) the Suns have and he’s pretty damn cheap too. Regardless of being chalky, he’s still a good idea to have.
Milwaukee Bucks (-7) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 215.5
—————-Pace> MIL: 23 – LAL: 5
OFF Efficiency> MIL: 10 – LAL: 26
DEF Efficiency> MIL: 20 – LAL: 30
Matchup:
Lakers won the only meeting (LAL: 122 – @MIL: 114)
MIL:
12-18-1 ATS on the road
13-22 ATS vs teams with a losing record this season
Michael Beasley (OUT- knee)
Jabari Parker (OUT for the season- knee)
The last two times Giannis Antetokounmpo has faced the Lakers he’s posted FDP totals of 69.4 and 64.6. Any questions?
Greg Monroe is a decent option here as well. On today’s pod, I talked about Zubac possibly being less aggressive and that would help Monroe get easier buckets in the post.
LAL:
25-31-1 ATS as the underdog
12-17-2 ATS at home
6-16 ATS in March games over the last two seasons
Nick Young (QUESTIONABLE- finger)
Ivica Zubac pissed enough people off that he’ll probably go a lot lower owned than he should. That last game he was in foul trouble for pretty much every second he was out on the court. I’m sure he learned his lesson and I would be able to give him another chance.
Julius Randle keeps popping up on the Domination Station. I know most people are tired of the Lakers but I feel like he still trying to play his heart out this season, and luckily, he’s pretty good too.
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