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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers (-5, ML: -205) – O/U: 208
—————-Pace> MIN: 25 – IND: 17
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 10 – IND: 15
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 24 – IND: 17
Matchup:
*Pacers won the only meeting this season (IND: 109 – @MIN: 103)
*Pacers are 4-1 (3-2 ATS) vs Timberwolves in their last five meetings
MIN:
*18-27 ATS as the underdog
*13-22 ATS on the road
-Nemanja Bjelica (OUT for the season- foot)
-Zach LaVine (OUT for the season- knee)
Gorgui Dieng has been great over the last two games with FDP totals of 30.7 and 36.4. Karl-Anthony Towns had a very un-KAT-like performance in the T-Wolves’ last game but look for him and Dieng to give the Pacers fits down low all game.
IND:
-Rodney Stuckey (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
-Al Jefferson (OUT- ankle)
-Glenn Robinson III (OUT- calf)
Paul George has posted at least 48 FDP in three of the last six games. He has crushed the T-Wolves in recent memory…
Jeff Teague was riding on a high in the three games prior to Sunday with about 38 FDP in each outing. The 26.4 he posted on Sunday was because he only played 26 minutes, for whatever reason that was.
Myles Turner is trending up based on his last four games, where he’s averaged 37.2 DKP/35.5 FDP over that span.
If Rodney Stuckey ends up missing tonight’s game then Monta Ellis will have a much bigger role on offense with the second unit. Ellis has been consistently playing 25+ minutes over the last two months but the production has been much more consistent of late with 20+ FDP in six of the last seven games.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets (-3, ML: -150) – O/U: 203.5
—————-Pace> MIL: 24 – CHA: 19
OFF Efficiency> MIL: 11 – CHA: 14
DEF Efficiency> MIL: 20 – CHA: 9
Matchup:
*Both teams on the front-end of a B2B
*Hornets won the only meeting this season (CHA: 107 – @MIL: 96)
*Hornets are 6-2 (4-4 ATS) vs Bucks in their last eight meetings
MIL:
*Front-end of B2B, @ Boston tomorrow
*14-20-1 ATS on the road
*15-24 ATS vs teams with a losing record
*3-13 ATS vs Southeast Division
-Khris Middleton (QUESTIONABLE- missed shootaround/illness)
-Michael Beasley (OUT- knee)
-John Henson (OUT- thumb)
-Jabari Parker (OUT for the season- knee)
The Bucks could be without Khris Middleton tonight, and that would push a lot of people towards Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has posted two 60+ fantasy point performances over the last three games, and he posted 53.8 DKP/52.3 FDP against the Hornets on Opening Night.
CHA:
*Front-end of a B2B, @ Toronto tomorrow
*16-21 ATS at home
-Ramon Sessions (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
Cody Zeller has shown flashes of 6-7x value in four of the last five games. His matchup against the Bucks is almost too good and he’s incredibly cheap at $5300 on both sites.
Miami Heat (-2.5, ML: -140) @ Detroit Pistons – O/U: 204
—————-Pace> MIA: 20 – DET: 23
OFF Efficiency> MIA: 18 – DET: 25
DEF Efficiency> MIA: 5 – DET: 12
Matchup:
*Pistons lead season series (@DET: 107 – MIA: 84), (DET: 107 – @MIA: 98), (@MIA: 116 – DET: 103)
MIA:
*Front-end of a B2B, @ New York tomorrow
*18-6 ATS in their last 24 games
*22-11 ATS vs teams with a losing record
-Dion Waiters (OUT- ankle)
Hassan Whiteside has been ridiculously good since the All-Star break, posting at least 36 FDP in all but two games in that span. However, Whiteside hasn’t fared all that well against the Pistons over the course of his career…
Point guards have done very well against the Pistons, but after hearing Goran Dragic say this yesterday about missing Dion Waiters in the lineup I’m not sure he’s the best choice.
“It’s different, it’s very different,” Dragic told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. “You can see we don’t have the second ballhandler who can get inside the paint and create for the others. Right now, every time we play pick-and-roll, they kind of switch or they kind of blitz me and it’s hard. There’s no rhythm right now for me, but, you know, try to continue to work hard and try to figure out those answers.”
Yeah, I’ll wait until he figures out those answers…
DET:
*3-11 (outright/ATS) playing on B2B days
*22-15 ATS at home
-Reggie Jackson (OUT- knee)
-Reggie Bullock (OUT- foot)
-Michael Gbinije (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
Andre Drummond has balled outrageous against the Heat this season…
The Domination Station is loving Ish Smith, and that makes sense since he’s incredibly cheap, will be playing nearly 30 minutes and is the only capable point guard on the Pistons roster.
Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks (-7.5, ML: -335) – O/U: 215
—————-Pace> PHX: 2 – ATL: 10
OFF Efficiency> PHX: 23 – ATL: 27
DEF Efficiency> PHX: 28 – ATL: 4
Matchup:
*Suns won the only meeting this season (@PHX: 109 – ATL: 107)
*Four of the last five Hawks/Suns games have gone UNDER the total
PHX:
*Eight-game losing streak
*31-25-2 ATS as the underdog
-Leandro Barbosa (QUESTIONABLE- hamstring)
-Ronnie Price (QUESTIONABLE- leg)
-Dragan Bender (OUT- ankle)
-Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Tyson Chandler (OUT for the season- rest)
Devin Booker has posted 33 FDP in the games before and after his massive night in Boston. The main caveat with Booker is the fact that he’ll continue to shoot until the clock hits all zeros- he had 40 attempts in Boston, and then 26 and 17 in the other two games over that span.
Tyler Ulis has today’s privilege of being a point guard against the Hawks. He could be falling out of favor with most people after a couple bad performances, but it’s tough to ignore this matchup and the fact that he’s posted at least 34 FDP in four of the last six games.
TJ Warren came back from a brief two-game absence to post 44 FDP in 39 minutes. He’s one of the best players on this Suns team so that coupled with the fact he’ll play nearly 40 minutes is good enough for me.
ATL:
*Front-end of a B2B, @ Philadelphia tomorrow
*Seven-game losing streak
*19-27 ATS as the favorite
*15-22 ATS at home, 1-8 ATS at home this month
*14-23 ATS vs teams with a losing record
-Paul Millsap (OUT- knee)
-Kent Bazemore (OUT- knee)
-Thabo Sefolosha (OUT- groin)
The entire Hawks’ starting lineup is in play against a Suns team that is just simply waiting for this season to finally end. Taurean Prince and Ersan Ilyasova could end up being the best $/PT options when this game is all said and done; both players have fantastic matchups, as does the entire team, but these are the best ones statistically.
It goes without saying that Dwight Howard, Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr are all fine options as well.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets (-2.5, ML: -145) – O/U: 221.5
—————-Pace> PHI: 5 – BKN: 1
OFF Efficiency> PHI: 30 – BKN: 28
DEF Efficiency> PHI: 15 – BKN: 26
Matchup:
*76ers won both meetings this season (@PHI: 108 – BKN: 107), (PHI: 105 – @BKN: 95)
*Nine of the last 10 Nets/Sixers games have gone UNDER the total
PHI:
*40-26-1 ATS as the underdog
*24-13 ATS vs teams with a losing record
*17-7 ATS after a loss by 10+ points
*18-8 ATS in their last 26 games
-Sergio Rodriguez (QUESTIONABLE- hamstring)
-Jahlil Okafor (OUT- knee)
-Gerald Henderson (OUT- hip)
Dario Saric hasn’t failed to reach 30+ minutes in three of the last four games, and some of that has to do with bad shooting nights, foul trouble and blowouts. I assume that Saric should be able to avoid all of these hindrances against the Nets.
Robert Covington, Richaun Holmes and Shawn Long are all decent GPP options but there is zero certainty in all their performances lately. TJ McConnell will see a big increase in minutes if Sergio Rodriguez ends up sitting this game out.
BKN:
-Sean Kilpatrick (PROBABLE- hamstring)
-Joe Harris (OUT- shoulder)
Brook Lopez is a center going up against the Sixers, so that makes him a great play in the eyes of projection sheets across the industry. I don’t mind him for cash games but it’s rare that we ever see him reach 6x value and up. However, it could happen and it does help that BroLo’s salary tag is below $7K on both sites.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has posted three-straight games of 30+ FDP and he gets another solid matchup tonight. The crazy thing about RHJ over these last three games is that he hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in each of those outings, and he’s totaled 36 rebounds over that span.
Since the Nets are favored (tonight will be only the sixth time this season), I don’t mind KJ McDaniels, Quincy Acy or Spencer Dinwiddie as salary-saving type of plays on DraftKings; on FanDuel it may be an unnecessary risk. McDaniels has some narrative as he was drafted by the Sixers, and they also gave up on him rather quickly.
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets (-1, ML: -120) – O/U: 234
—————-Pace> GS: 3 – HOU: 4
OFF Efficiency> GS: 1 – HOU: 2
DEF Efficiency> GS: 2 – HOU: 18
Matchup:
*Teams play each other again on Friday
*Teams split season series (HOU: 132 – @GS: 127), (GS: 125 – @HOU: 108)
*Warriors are 16-3 (13-6 ATS) vs Rockets in their last 19 meetings
*12 of the last 19 Rockets/Warriors games have gone UNDER the total
GS:
*Seven-game winning streak
-Kevin Durant (OUT- knee)
Klay Thompson is a very confusing case study to look at in this matchup against the Rockets. He hasn’t reached 30 FDP in his last three regular season meetings against the Rockets; he performed right at 5x value in each of their five playoff games last season, but keep in mind that Curry missed a lot of time in that series. I feel like a lot of Klay’s struggles have to do with his shot not falling, but also remember that he is the one tasked with defending Harden and that could be the part of his game that he’s more enamored with. Whatever the case may be, Klay seems like he could be a solid play tonight.
Stephen Curry will have Beverley attached to his hip tonight, and that kinda sucks. There is no love lost between these two players so it’s possible that a reunion could bring out the best in Curry.
Draymond Green might be the best $/PT play from the Warriors when all is said and done. The Rockets have absolutely no one that can match up with Dray and the tempo that both teams play at suits his game perfectly.
There are going to be a ton of points in this game, so I don’t mind Andre Iguodala or Matt Barnes for salary-saving purposes.
HOU:
*11-2 ATS vs Pacific Division
*19-7 ATS on Tuesday nights over the last three seasons
-Ryan Anderson (OUT- ankle)
James Harden has been doing his thing against the Warriors in recent memory, and since this game has a total of 234 I’m willing to bet he does it again.
Eric Gordon, Lou Williams and Trevor Ariza are all GPP worthy. Clint Capela works here as well, and he posted 39.9 FDP in the last meeting against the Warriors.
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5, ML: -140) – O/U: 226.5
—————-Pace> DEN: 8 – POR: 12
OFF Efficiency> DEN: 5 – POR: 12
DEF Efficiency> DEN: 29 – POR: 22
Matchup:
*Teams are tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference
*Blazers lead season series (POR: 115 – @DEN: 113), (@POR: 112 – DEN: 105), (@DEN: 132 – POR: 120)
*Blazers are 9-2 (5-6 ATS) vs Nuggets in their last 11 meetings
*Nine of the last 11 Blazers/Nuggets games have gone OVER the total
DEN:
-NO INJURIES
Denver’s rotation is spread out way too much right now, so I’m not particularly big on any of their players. Nikola Jokic has posted FDP totals of 60.8 and 50.2 over the last five games, but I’m worried that Mason Plumlee could pop off for a decent game against his former colleagues.
POR:
-Ed Davis (OUT for the season- shoulder)
Damian Lillard has averaged 31 PPG since the All-Star break and he draws one of the best matchups in the NBA as a point guard going up against the Nuggets. Lillard is one of the hottest players in the NBA at the moment and it doesn’t seem like the Nuggets are capable of stopping him. CJ McCollum also works here as the Nuggets can’t contain opposing backcourts altogether.
Jusuf Nurkic has averaged 14 PPG and 10.1 RPG since being traded over from Denver, and the Blazers have subsequently gone 12-6 since the move. Nurkic says this isn’t a grudge game (don’t they all) but he has to be all fired up for this one.
Washington Wizards (-9, ML: -450) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 226
—————-Pace> WSH: 11 – LAL: 6
OFF Efficiency> WSH: 9 – LAL: 24
DEF Efficiency> WSH: 19 – LAL: 30
Matchup:
*Wizards won the only meeting this season (@WSH: 116 – LAL: 108)
*Wizards are 4-1 (2-3 ATS) vs Lakers in their last five meetings
WSH:
-NO INJURIES
The Wizards are heavily favored in this game, but you already know that most of them are viable options against the worst defense in the NBA.
John Wall is one of the most frustrating players to roster in NBA DFS, but it’s tough to hate a guy going up against the Lakers…at any point. The Wizards might be too good for this matchup as nine-point favorites, so I really don’t see this game being close at all. This is probably a game that is better suited for the role players like Bojan Bogdanovic, Ian Mahinmi and Jason Smith. That Bradley Beal fella is pretty damn good too…hopefully not too good.
LAL:
-Brandon Ingram (OUT- knee)
-Nick Young (OUT- coach’s decision
Julius Randle is my favorite player from the Lakers tonight, but I am a bit worried that a severe ass-kicking could take place. Power forwards have been the best spot to attack Wizards players so there is where I would take the monumental risk.
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