It’s that time again already, folks. We are heading to Phoenix this week in what is sure to be a very polarizing week. As we talked about in mid-week article, everything is coming down to the Kevin Harvick problem. I still have some questions I have to investigate, so it would be a good idea to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
I want to start by looking back at the dominators of six recent Phoenix races (courtesy of NASCARstats).
The most notable thing here is the degree of domination that occurs at this race. 4/6 of the races featured here had one driver lead of half of the laps – and that driver almost always won the race. Here is the part where I am going tell you what you already know – we need to find the dominator, and there is really only two candidates this week: Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick.
Let’s start with Logano. Starting 1st, we have to give up any and all differential potential when we stick Logano into our lineup. That said, he gives us a huge opportunity to get some dominator points, especially when we consider the new segment format. A full tank of fuel will propel you 85-90 green flag laps. Since segments one and two are just 75 laps long, chances are we have some long green flag runs that are not interrupted by green flag pit stops. Joey is starting first with a fast car, to his outside is his teammate Ryan Blaney, who likely won’t push Logano too hard for the lead when the green flag drops, and right behind him is Dale Earnhardt Jr., who doesn’t have a reputation of being aggressive on early restarts. This all adds up to a very solid opportunity for Joey Logano to lead a lot of laps, and get way out in front of the pack. Joey has the second best driver rating at Phoenix over the last couple years, an average running position of 12.1, and as much momentum as anyone in the field. I actually believe that Logano is as good, if not better, of a play as Harvick. I think Logano can hit the 50% of laps led mark and eventually compete for a top-3.
Now onto Harvick. I looked EVERYWHERE for a reason to fade Harvick…and then he went a qualified 23rd. Here’s the facts – short of an accident, Harvick is going to compete for a win and finish in the top 3 or 4. Whether he can nab some dominator points is beside the point – a top 3 is all he needs to hit that 60-70 FPTS. I can’t even to predict how heavily owned he will be, but if it’s under 60% I will be surprised. You can safely ignore his inconsistencies in practice – his crew chief Childers will get him tuned up during the race.
Now, I want you to take this paragraph with a huge grain of salt. I do not think fading Harvick is a +EV move. However, if you are looking for a reason to fade him – here are my thoughts. Harvick did not look at all dominant in the last race in Phoenix – though he finished 4th, I think that was more a factor of driver talent…I don’t think Harvick has the huge setup advantage he has had in previous years. I think the field has caught up to him. Now, he is still the most talented driver when it comes to Phoenix, and that is worth something. I do NOT think that will be enough for him to drive up from 23rd during what I predict will be a long green flag run to start. I think Harvick will make his way to the top five by the halfway point in the race, but I am worried about the amount of equipment he will burn to do it. Especially when you compare it to Logano – whose car is AS GOOD and will have a much easier drive equipment-wise. With that in mind, all he needs to do is log some fast laps and finish towards the front – which he will do. If you fade Harvick completely, you are doing so because you think he will find trouble – not because you don’t think he will dominate…did that makes sense? Let’s move on to other solid plays.
Top Plays
Logano – SEE ABOVE
Harvick – SEE ABOVE
Kyle Busch – Kyle is coming into this race all full of piss and vinegar. He is starting ninth, which gives him an opportunity to pick up some all important differential points, and has led 10% of all laps at Phoenix since 2005. He boasts an average running position of 11.2, and had the fastest 10-lap speed in final practice. I think Busch is a really solid pivot off the other two, who will be incredibly chalky.
Chase Elliott – I said it last week, and I will repeat it this week. Chase is going to win very very soon. He AGAIN had the fastest car all weekend up until final practice – but I am not too worried about that. Chase had ELITE stats at Phoenix last year, and his 13th starting position makes him a very attractive play.
Jimmie Johnson – I am not super confident in this pick, so allow your own research to dictate your Johnson exposure. Jimmie has had a horrible 2017 so far – and was having an unimpressive weekend up until final practice. They must have found something – because he showed up in a big way on Saturday afternoon. His 10-lap time was second only to Kyle Busch, and he has top five single lap speed. An impressive field-leading 8.4 average running position ought to go over looked against the Logano/Harvick chalk. If Johnson and crew chief Knaus can work the bugs out – I think this can be a very solid play.
Fades
After last weeks chaos, I don’t have any notable fades this week (surprise, I know). Follow your own process for fading this week.
Value Plays
Ryan Newman – Newman is sneaky good at Phoenix. An average running of 15.7, and a good start to 2017 makes him an elite value play this week. I don’t think Richard Childress Racing is in a position to win a race at this point in time, and they have had some logistical errors over the last few weeks. I am looking for them to put those in the past this week, and it should result in a top 15 result for Newman, against a poor 22nd place qualifying performance.
Erik Jones – Jones has a very impressive resume at Phoenix across all three national touring series. He has shown good speed in practice, and I think he can keep his machine towards the front of the pack all day. It will be hard for Jones to compete for a win here, but I don’t think a top 5 performance is out of the question. When plugging him into your lineups, take time to consider his 8th place starting spot, and the volatility of rookie drivers.
Daniel Suarez – I know, I know – Suarez has looked horrible so far. He didn’t look that great in practice – and I have serious concerns about his confidence level. With that in mind – it’s impossible to ignore Joe Gibbs equipment rolling off 27th. This is as close to a hometrack Suarez can get, so there is some narrative there. Suarez has logged top fives and wins in the xFinity and Truck series at Phoenix, so the potential is certainly there.
Other drivers to look into this weekend: Almirola, Danica, and Stenhouse Jr. Dale Earnhardt Jr is really good at Phoenix, and is a little underpriced. That said, he is starting 3rd and doesn’t tend to dominate. He is a good play if you believe he can compete for a win.
This week is going to be all about finding value against the chalk, and I am still digging for value. I will be updating my thoughts on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good look this week, and let’s make some cash.