Anndd we’re back. After a very unique Las Vegas race, I am ready for some normalcy this week at Phoenix. Everytime we make our way to Phoenix, we deal with the Kevin Harvick problem. What’s the Kevin Harvick Problem (or the KHP as we will call it going forward)? Harvick dominates Phoenix. And I mean DOMINATES. No active driver is as good at a single track as Harvick has been at Phoenix recently. He could win this race in a Ford Focus he just drove off the lot, let alone the fastest car in the field (which he will probably have). So what’s the problem? Everyone knows it. Draftkings knows it, the DFS community knows it, and all the other drivers know it.
My week is usually spent investigating every driver, to find which ones have the best opportunity to have a good day. This week has been spent trying to determine if we can fade Harvick safely. That’s the problem. Harvick is the highest priced driver in the field (a whooping $11,100) and will likely go at least 45% in ALL game types. That means when the lineups lock at 3:30 EST on Sunday, the entire fields fortunes will be determined by Harvick’s performance. It’s a unique spot for NASCAR DFS, so let’s look into Phoenix to see what we see.
Track Specifications:
Track/Race Length: 1.0 mile oval, 312 laps, 312 miles/500km
Banking (variable): 10°-11° in Turns 1-2
10°-11° in Backstretch Dogleg
8°-9° in Turns 3-4
3° on the frontstretch
9° on the backstretch
Front stretch: Length: 1,179 feet
Back stretch: Length: 1,551 feet
Pit Road: Length: 1,140
Pit Road Speed: 45mph
Fuel Window: 85-90 laps
Last Repave: 2011
First thing you will notice is just how unique Phoenix is. There are so many little intricacies to this racetrack, that it’s very difficult to lean on “like” races for info. Luckily for us, there is two Phoenix races a year, so we have more actual Phoenix races to reference. Let’s start by looking at who has performed in those races over the last few years.
Now “driver rating” is a pretty flimsy metric, but when their is such a spread between 1st and 2nd, I think it’s notable. Another thing I want you to take note of is the similarities between the two charts. All the numbers are pretty similar. This gives me confidence that we can lean on the fall race history just as much as the spring race. So let’s start by at my patent pending “BAD HANDWRITING RACE REPORT” available at @bradymillerdfs every week!
What a mess. If you are looking for some reprieve from the KHP in this info, you are in the wrong place. In the spring Phoenix race, Harvick started 18th and predictably dominated. He won the race, led the most laps, and had the most fast laps. He had the fastest single lap speed in final practice, but didn’t really show up in the 10 lap speed. Fast forward to the fall race, and he didn’t do a damn thing. For the first time in many years, he had little impact on the race and cost a lot of people a lot of money. The KHP rears it’s ugly head again.
Next, take a look avg running position in the last three Phoenix spring races. If that doesn’t strike fear into your heart, you aren’t grasping just how dominant Harvick has been at these races. But let’s ignore Harvick for a second and look for some other drivers that have performed, and could go overlooked. Joey Logano should be full of piss and vinegar this week, and has a fantastic Phoenix resume (as he usually does on unique tracks). He is worth a look and could be the Harvick pivot this week. Dale Earnhardt Jr struggled in 2015, but he always performs well at Phoenix. JR has had a rough start to 2017, as has Hendrick Motorsports as a whole, but this track really suits his finesse style of driving. Finally, Kurt Busch has always been great at Phoenix, but a couple years ago – he started learning from the best. Busch has been magnificent at Phoenix since he became Harvick’s teammate. He is worth a look this week if you are looking for a stack with Harvick.
So start there. We will see after practice what we are going to do about the KHP, but spend this week elsewhere. Fill out the rest of your line up, and don’t let Harvick consume your nightmares too much.
P.S. ERIKJONESISREALLYGOODATPHOENIX
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