Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Very often, this will be a low-cost player thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Basketball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
Recap
We had a pretty successful night last night with regards to our free squares. Taurean Prince put together a nice game by reaching 6.1x value for us. The other Hawk we rostered was Dwight Howard who also put together a nice game reaching 5.9x value. To top it all off our free square of the night Ish Smith managed to best out best player of the night with 6.2x value. It was a great night for us, and I hope you guys won some money off of the squares
Tonight
We are back to a normal slate after the weird split slate DraftKings offered last night. There are 10-games on the slate tonight. We went 3/3 last night and will try to continue that streak tonight. A lot of the big names are on the board tonight so let’s see if we can snag some value guys to pair with them:
Free Squares
- TJ McConnell PG PHI ($5,500)
- TJ McConnell makes the free square list tonight with a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. McConnell comes into the game averaging right around .93 DKFP/M. He will be going up against an Atlanta Hawks team who have an aDVP of .96. That number isn’t great, but McConnell has a very good individual matchup. He will be going up against Dennis Schroder who is one of the worst defensive point guards on the slate tonight owning a -2.47 DRPM. The Sixers have an implied total of right around (105)-points. This will be a pretty faced paced game as both teams have pace numbers of (100) and (101). The Sixers are a bit banged up in the backcourt which is going to mean plenty of minutes and fantasy opportunities for McConnell tonight. In 3 of his last 5 games, McConnell has gone for over 5.8x+ value. According to our VIP Spreadsheet, we have the following value projections for McConnell tonight: 73% chance to reach 5x value, 32% chance to reach 6x value, and a 6% chance to reach 7x value. The Domination Station has a solid projection for McConnell right now projecting him to get right around 32 DKFP. That would be good enough for right around 5.8x value. We are projecting him to get right around 34 minutes. I think his floor is right around 5.5x value. I also think he may have more upside than our model suggests. He will have to pick up some slack tonight, and he has a great matchup on the night. Lock in TJ McConnell for a very affordable $5,500.
- Guillermo Hernangómez C NYK ($5,400)
- It wouldn’t be the free squares if there wasn’t at least one Hernangomez brother on the list. It’s Guillermo Hernangómez’s time tonight as he will take on the Miami Heat. Guillermo or “Willy” has been averaging right around a solid 1.15 DKFP/M this season. He has a matchup against the Heat tonight who have a 1.05 aDVP against opposing centers. His personal matchup will be Hassan Whiteside who is a decent defender with a 1.32 DRPM. The Knicks have an implied total of (104)-points and will be playing in a slightly pace down game. Willy is coming off of 4 straight solid performances with a 10.8x value performance sprinkled in there. Our models really like Hernangomez including the VIP Spreadsheet which has the following projections: 85% chance to reach 5x value, 53% chance to reach 6x value, and an 18% chance to reach 7x value. He has both a strong floor and strong upside tonight. The Domination Station also thinks highly of Guillermo tonight projecting him to score right around 31 DKFP good enough for around 5.7x value. We also have him projected to get right around 27 minutes tonight. The matchup isn’t the greatest on paper, but I do not think Guillermo will have problems scoring tonight. He is the best guy to lock in the center position tonight in the mid-range salary pricing.
- Dwight Howard C ATL ($7,600)
- I picked Dwight last night and he managed to have a great game and hit value for us. I am going to press my luck and pick him again tonight. Dwight is currently averaging right around 1.26 DKFP/M. He draws a great matchup tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers who have a 1.15 aDVP. Dwight is probably going to up against Richuan Holmes tonight who has is one of the worst defensive centers on the board tonight sporting a .50 DRPM. Dwight should have no problem tonight man handling the undersized center. The Hawks have a solid implied total sitting at (108)-points. The Hawks play at a pace right around (100) and will be going up against the slightly faster 76ers who play at a pace of (101). There is a lot to like about Dwight in this matchup, and our models seem to be echoing that sentiment. The VIP Spreadsheet has Dwight projected for a 73% chance to reach 5x value, 27% chance to reach 6x value, and a 2% chance to reach 7x value. As with the same case as last night, I think he has more upside value than our model suggests. The Domination Station has him with a baseline projection of right around 40 DKFP. Look for him to be right in the 40-50 DKFP range again tonight. There may be some concern about Dwight playing a back-to-back, but the numbers don’t seem to suggest he sees much of a dip in performance on 0-days rest. We have him projected to get right around 32 minutes tonight which has been pretty consistent lately. I am going to lock and load Dwight for a second straight day.
Free Square of the Night
There seem to be some plays that really stick out tonight. As always though you never know what these teams are going to do this time of year. Stay diligent and on top of the news tonight. If you haven’t signed up and taken advantage of our VIP Spreadsheet and Domination Station you are missing out! Sign up today before the season is over! Without further ado my free square of the night is going to be TJ McConnell! Good luck tonight everyone!
Do you want access to the most advanced Daily Fantasy Basketball NBA cheat sheet in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our NBA DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that PLUS access to our best in the industry projections and optimization tools. Go to DFS Army VIP membership and use promo code 20-OFF to lock in at 20% off the monthly membership fee. That’s just $20 a month for premium chat, coaching from sport-specific experts, cheat sheets and optimization tools. You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team.