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Toronto Raptors (-2.5) @ New York Knicks – O/U: 211.5
Matchup:
*Raptors won both meetings this season (@TOR: 118 – NYK: 107), (@TOR: 116 – NYK: 101)
*Raptors are 8-2 (4-6 ATS) versus the Knicks in their last 10 meetings
TOR:
-Kyle Lowry (OUT indefinitely- wrist)
DeMar DeRozan will be a hot commodity if Kyle Lowry doesn’t play tonight. It seems like Lowry’s injury is serious enough that the Raptors want to be cautious with it and if he does sit out then DeRozan will get as much usage as he can handle.
Corey Joseph has done just enough (26.2 and 25.2 FDP) with his opportunity of starting the last two games, but keep in mind that those matchups against the Celtics and Trail Blazers were two of the best possible ones on the board. Then again, 6x value at $4200 DK/$4400 FD is pretty good too…
NYK:
-Kristaps Porzingis (QUESTIONABLE- ankle)
-Brandon Jennings (WAIVED)
Carmelo Anthony will benefit greatly if Kristaps Porzingis does miss tonight’s game, but he’s not the only one. Willy Hernangomez and Kyle O’Quinn are going to pick up huge minutes again in this instance, and especially now that Joakim Noah has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Hernangomez is probably safer for cash while O’Quinn is the better GPP option.
I have no idea why the Knicks waived Brandon Jennings today and I’ve basically given up hope on trying to explain anything they do. Typically, this would mean more minutes for Derrick Rose but there is a lot of chatter that he could be released too. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I give up. This could be an interesting spot for Ron Baker, depending on what transpires throughout the course of the day.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-8.5) – O/U: 218.5
Matchup:
*Cavs lead season series (@MIL: 118 – CLE: 101), (CLE: 114 – @MIL: 108), (@CLE: 113 – MIL: 102)
*Cavs are 8-3 (5-6 ATS) versus the Bucks in their last 11 meetings
*9 of the last 11 games in this series have gone OVER the total
MIL:
*9-17 ATS on the road
-Khris Middleton (OUT- rest)
-Jabari Parker (OUT for the season- torn ACL)
Giannis Antetokounmpo has posted great numbers against the Cavs over the last two seasons, and now he gets a chance to take them on without Jabari Parker. The Greek has been profitable in the month of February, regardless of who he’s gone up against, and hitting value will be a lot easier tonight if LBJ doesn’t suit up for the Cavs.
The issue with Greg Monroe is always whether he’ll get enough minutes or not. He’s played at least 31 minutes in three of the last four games but, of course, we know that doesn’t mean anything- this can all change at the drop of a dime. Monroe won’t have an easy matchup but at $5900 DK/$6400 FD he does provide the amount of upside that is capable of taking down a GPP win.
With Khris Middleton out of the lineup, look for Michael Beasley, Malcolm Brogdon and even Tony Snell to get a massive number of minutes
CLE:
-LeBron James (QUESTIONABLE- illness)
-Kyle Korver (QUESTIONABLE- knee)
-Kevin Love (OUT- knee)
The big question is whether or not LeBron James plays in this game, and that’ll dictate how the rest of the Cavs fall in line. If LBJ plays he deserves some consideration, as always…If not, we’re looking at a high dose of Kyrie Irving who has posted FDP totals 39.5 of 55.7 in back-to-back days against the Bucks in December. Keep in mind, though, the Bucks have given up the third-fewest fantasy points to point guards this season.
Golden State Warriors (-13.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 230.5
Matchup:
*Teams have not met this season
*Warriors have won the last 4 meetings, but Sixers are 3-1 ATS in that span
*3 of the last 4 games in this series have gone UNDER the total
GS:
-Kevin Durant (PROBABLE- hand)
Whenever the Warriors are double-digit favorites in a game with a 230 total it’s probably a good idea to have some exposure to them. Statistically, the best matchup goes to Klay Thompson and it may also work out to your advantage as he’ll probably be the one carrying the lowest ownership percentage of the Fantastic Four.
Kevin Durant has shown that he is more reliable than Stephen Curry on a consistent basis so I would lean that way if given the choice. I wouldn’t be too worried about KD’s hand since the Warriors are playing him tonight; if it were that serious I doubt the Warriors would’ve let him play.
It’s concerning that Draymond Green hasn’t played more than 24 minutes in the last four games, so that is reason enough. There is a whole list of reasons why I think it’s happening but the fact of the matter is that he’s not a safe play at all.
PHI:
-Joel Embiid (OUT- knee)
The Sixers have enough firepower to keep this game interesting and I expect Robert Covington and Dario Saric to lead the charge. Both guys are expensive and don’t exactly have the greatest matchups on paper, but the total is high enough that there should be enough pieces of the pie to go around for everyone.
Richaun Holmes is a guy that may have fallen from the depths of people’s minds, but he is much better suited for this matchup than Jahlil Okafor. His FDP total didn’t look that glamorous on Saturday because he got two quick fouls so that 16.4 he posted was basically done all in the second half.
TJ McConnell might go overlooked in this matchup and that might be a mistake. In a game with such a high total and pace, McConnell should be able to fall ass backward into fantasy points all night.
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics (-4.5, ML: -185) – O/U: 211.5
Matchup:
*Celtics won the only meeting this season (BOS: 103 – @ATL: 101)
*Hawks are 9-5 (7-7 ATS) versus the Celtics in their last 14 meetings
*9 of the last 14 Celtics/Hawks games have gone UNDER the total
ATL:
-NO INJURIES
The Celtics certainly don’t have the bodies to bang down low with the Hawks, so I’d like to think Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard will be quite successful. Neither guy has really inspired much confidence lately but the matchup is what it is.
Speaking of matchups, whoever is starting at point guard will have the best one on the board since IT2 is statistically the worst on-ball defender in the NBA. Dennis Schroder returned from his one-game suspension, but didn’t do so in the starting lineup; he wasn’t bad off the bench, so this could be something to watch down the line.
BOS:
*33-16 ATS playing on B2B days over the last 3 seasons
*24-12 ATS versus Southeastern Division over the last 2 seasons
-Avery Bradley (DOUBTFUL- Achilles)
Isaiah Thomas is the only Celtics player that makes sense for this matchup, considering the Hawks get absolutely toasted by point guards. It’s been a while since he’s posted massive upside but his priced has dropped a great deal and this matchup should be the cure for his illness.
Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets (-10, ML: -600) – O/U: 230
Matchup:
*Pacers won the only meeting this season (@IND: 120 – HOU: 101)
*Rockets are 3-2 (straight up/ATS) versus the Pacers in their last 5 meetings
*3 of the last 5 games in this series have gone OVER the total
IND:
-NO INJURIES
Paul George absolutely crushed it against the Rockets earlier this season and he should be able to do so once again. The Rockets don’t have anyone that can hang with him on a one-on-one basis and I’ll be looking to cash in on that…again.
CJ Miles and Monta Ellis have some appeal off the bench as well, but they are just merely salary-savers and not players that are going to make a major difference.
HOU:
-NO INJURIES
We can already see the negative effect of James Harden getting fewer minutes since the trade deadline. This is exactly what the Rockets were trying to do, so now we just have to be more aware of that.
As a result of this, Lou Williams and Eric Gordon become much more appealing than they already were. Tonight’s game is the kind where they can really do some damage, being highly favored with a massive total. On today’s pod, I break this down in a grand way so check it out.
Miami Heat (-1) @ Dallas Mavericks – O/U: 200.5
Matchup:
*Heat won the only meeting this season (@MIA: 99 – DAL: 95)
*Heat are 4-1 (straight up/ATS) versus the Mavs in their last 5 meetings
*The last 5 games in this series have gone UNDER the total
MIA:
-Willie Reed (OUT- calf)
I think it may be the time get back on the James Johnson bandwagon, at least for tonight. Willie Reed is out, and that’ll open up more minutes, but I am a kinda worried about his numbers taking somewhat of a hit with Dion Waiters and all of these other guards in the lineup.
Tyler Johnson is the only other option from the Heat that makes sense; he’s a lot cheaper than Goran Dragic and puts up just as many fantasy points.
DAL:
-JJ Barea (OUT- calf)
Dirk Nowitzki has been solid here in the last seven games with at least 27 FDP each time out. He can be effective in this matchup against Hassan Whiteside, who has struggled on defense against stretch bigs.
Also, it’s Wesley Matthews Bobblehead Night! We all know what that means…
Minnesota Timberwolves (-5, ML: -205) @ Sacramento Kings – O/U: 212
Matchup:
*Kings won both meetings this season (@SAC: 106 – MIN: 103), (SAC: 109 – @MIN: 105)
*Kings are 5-4 (3-6 ATS) versus the Timberwolves in their last 9 meetings
MIN:
-Zach LaVine (OUT for the rest of the season- torn ACL)
Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are carrying this Timberwolves team all by themselves and that’s who I’ll place my faith in. The Timberwolves are uncharacteristically favored in this game so that brightens their outlook a lot more.
SAC:
-Garrett Temple (OUT- hamstring)
The Timberwolves defense is one that we should always take advantage of but the Kings might be the wrong team to attack them with.
The whole situation with their backcourt is an absolute mess, but if I had a gun to my head I guess it would be Buddy Hield or Tyreke Evans to lead me into battle…does not mean I have to like it. The frontcourt is a little more transparent with their rotation but the problem with them is the production. You have to think Willey Cauley-Stein is going to be the biggest benefactor but another two-point/two-rebound performance will make me put my first through a wall.
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