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Today’s version is incredibly abbreviated, and only contains the best GPP option (in my opinion) from each team, and some even have two. Hope you enjoy!
Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-5.5, ML: -230) – O/U: 219.5
—————Pace> IND: 14th – CLE: 13th
OFF Efficiency> IND: 14th – CLE: 4th
DEF Efficiency> IND: 16th – CLE: 20th
Matchup:
*Teams have split season series (@IND: 103 – CLE: 93), (CLE: 132 – @IND: 117)
*Cavaliers are 6-4 (2-8 ATS) versus the Pacers in their last 10 meetings
IND:
*9-16-1 ATS on the road
*19-8 ATS versus the Central Division over the last two seasons
-Thaddeus Young (OUT- missed last six games, sprained wrist)
-Lavoy Allen (QUESTIONABLE- missed last game, sore knee)
Jeff Teague will likely draw a matchup with Iman Shumpert, and that would put Kyrie Irving (a much worse defender) on CJ Miles– this is the exact scenario that went down last week when the two teams faced off, but Shumpert was injured and it was DeAndre Liggins that defended Teague, who ended up posting 49 FDP while Miles had 28.8.
Monta Ellis has played at least 28 minutes over the last three games, and posted at least 20 FDP in the four.
CLE:
*3-7 on the back-end of B2Bs
*21-28-2 as the favorite
*18-33 ATS versus the Central Division over the last three seasons
-Kevin Love (OUT indefinitely- arthroscopic knee surgery)
Tristan Thompson will likely go overlooked on a 14-game slate, and that makes him a great option for GPPs. The Pacers allow the fourth-most rebounds to their opponents, and without Kevin Love lurking around in the paint TT should be able to grab them all.
San Antonio Spurs (-10.5, ML: -650) @ Orlando Magic – O/U: 205.5
—————Pace> SA: 26th – ORL: 19th
OFF Efficiency> SA: 5th – ORL: 29th
DEF Efficiency> SA: 1st – ORL: 22nd
Matchup:
*Magic won the only meeting (ORL: 95 – @SA: 83)
*Spurs are 4-1 (1-4 ATS) versus the Magic in their last five meetings
*Four of the last five Spurs/Magic games have gone UNDER the total
SA:
-Pau Gasol (OUT indefinitely- broken finger)
The core Spurs players haven’t been incredibly profitable as double-digit favorites. However, Dewayne Dedmon could be in play since the Magic allow their opponents to grab the fifth-most rebounds per game.
ORL:
*8-17-1 ATS at home
-Jodie Meeks (OUT indefinitely- thumb surgery)
-CJ Wilcox (OUT indefinitely- Achilles)
Terrence Ross makes the most sense to me, considering the Magic don’t have too many options at the small forward position. As double-digit favorites, the Spurs look as if they’ll have this game well in hand and what a better time for them to get a look at their newest toy.
Dallas Mavericks @ Detroit Pistons (-5, ML: -205) – O/U: 201
—————Pace> DAL: 29th – DET: 25th
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 19th – DET: 23rd
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 17th – DET: 11th
Matchup:
*Pistons won the only meeting (DET: 95 – @DAL: 85)
*Pistons are 3-2 (and ATS) versus the Mavericks in their last five meetings
*Four of the last five Mavericks/Pistons games have gone UNDER the total
DAL:
*24-12 ATS after a loss by 10+ points over the last two seasons
-Andrew Bogut (QUESTIONABLE- missed last eight games, hamstring)
-JJ Barea (OUT indefinitely- calf)
Harrison Barnes will likely draw a matchup with Jon Leuer and that might be the only logical one to attack against the Pistons. You probably won’t get much upside against this team but Barnes has posted at least 29 FDP in three of the last four games.
DET:
-NO INJURIES
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has completely sucked since that epic 50.3 FDP performance against the Pelicans two weeks ago. However, he’ll draw a solid matchup with Seth Curry and hopefully this is the one that gets him back on track. The minutes for KCP aren’t the problem, he’s playing plenty of them, but the shots not falling are the problem- that could change any day now.
Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5, ML: -220) @ Brooklyn Nets – O/U: 220.5
—————Pace> MIL: 21st – BKN: 1st
OFF Efficiency> MIL: 10th – BKN: 28th
DEF Efficiency> MIL: 21st – BKN: 27th
Matchup:
*Bucks won all meetings (@MIL: 110–BKN: 108), (MIL: 111 @BKN: 93), (@MIL: 112–BKN: 103)
*Bucks are 9-1 (7-2-1 ATS) versus the Nets in their last 10 meetings
*Seven of the last 10 Bucks/Nets games have gone OVER the total
MIL:
*9-16-1 ATS on the road
*1-10 ATS versus the Atlantic Division
*10-19 ATS versus teams with a losing record
-Jabari Parker (OUT for the season- torn ACL)
Giannis Antetokounmpo gets a matchup against the Nets, who run the fastest pace and have the third-worst defense in the NBA. Any questions?
BKN:
-Trevor Booker (QUESTIONABLE- sore knee)
-Quincy Acy (OUT- missed last four games, ankle)
-Jeremy Lin (OUT indefinitely- hamstring soreness)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will be the best $/PT option from the Nets if Trevor Booker sits out tonight. It does appear like the Nets will hold Booker out and give him an extended rest until after the All-Star break. They are also missing Quincy Acy and that would basically give RHJ all the minutes he could handle at power forward.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (-9.5, ML: -500) – O/U: 217
————-Pace> PHI: 8th – BOS: 18th
OFF Efficiency> PHI: 30th – BOS: 6th
DEF Efficiency> PHI: 15th – BOS: 19th
Matchup:
*Celtics have won both meetings (BOS: 107 – @PHI: 106), (@BOS: 110 – PHI: 106)
*Celtics have won the last 10 (7-3 ATS) games versus the Sixers
PHI:
*33-19 ATS as the underdog
-Joel Embiid (OUT indefinitely- meniscus tear)
-Jahlil Okafor (WILL PLAY- trade rumors)
TJ McConnell draws the best matchup in basketball against Isaiah Thomas, the NBA’s worst on-ball defender this season. Unfortunately, the 10-point spread doesn’t offer much hope to the Sixers tonight but they have played the Celtics tough twice already this season.
BOS:
*9-18 ATS at home
*7-20 ATS after 3+ consecutive wins over the last two seasons
-Avery Bradley (OUT- missed multiple games, Achilles)
-Jaylen Brown (OUT indefinitely- strained hip)
Marcus Smart has played incredibly well over the last three games, two of which were without Jae Crowder. However, Jaylen Brown was ruled out last game and this one, so that’ll keep Smart on the court for 35+ minutes. Crowder will likely be defended by Robert Covington, and that’ll allow Smart to pick on either Gerald Henderson or Nik Stauskas.
Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors (-6.5, ML: ) – O/U: 213
—————Pace> CHA: 16th – TOR: 22nd
OFF Efficiency> CHA: 16th – TOR: 3rd
DEF Efficiency> CHA: 7th – TOR: 18th
Matchup:
*Teams have split season series (TOR: 113 – @CHA: 111), (@CHA: 113 – TOR: 78)
*Raptors are 5-4 (4-5 ATS) versus the Hornets in their last nine meetings
CHA:
*8-13 ATS as the underdog
*3-16 ATS when the total is 210+
*2-13 ATS versus the Atlantic Division
-Cody Zeller (OUT- missed nine of the last 10 games, sore quadricep)
-Miles Plumlee (OUT- injured during last game, calf)
-Ramon Sessions (OUT indefinitely- knee surgery)
Frank Kaminsky doesn’t draw the greatest matchup, but his cost and projected minutes are good enough for me in this space.
TOR:
*4-7 on the back-end of B2Bs
*18-8 ATS when playing on B2B days over the last two seasons
*16-11-1 ATS at home
-Serge Ibaka (TRADED TO RAPTORS YESTERDAY)
-Patrick Patterson (QUESTIONABLE- medically cleared to play/still has pain, knee)
Now that Terrence Ross is off to Orlando, that should allow Norman Powell to get enough minutes so that he can pay off on his cheap price tag. Last night, Powell posted 24.4 FDP in only 18 minutes, further validating that need for him to be on the floor more.
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets (-9, ML: -475) – O/U: 222
—————-Pace> MIA: 20th – HOU: 4th
OFF Efficiency> MIA: 26th – HOU: 2nd
DEF Efficiency> MIA: 6th – HOU: 12th
Matchup:
*Heat won the only meeting (@MIA: 109 – HOU: 103)
*Rockets are 3-2 (and ATS) versus the Heat over the last five meetings
*Four of the last five Heat/Rockets games have gone UNDER the total
MIA:
-Josh Richardson (OUT indefinitely- ankle)
Tyler Johnson is quite affordable at his $5100 DK/$5700 FD price tag and he should get plenty of run in this perceived blowout in Houston. Even when the Heat games are close, TJ is usually in down the stretch and getting plenty of production. In fact, more often than not, he’s smoking his teammate Goran Dragic in terms of $/PT.
HOU:
*5-3 on 2+ days of rest
*20-7 ATS versus teams with a losing record
-Eric Gordon (PROBABLE- missed last two games, back)
Clint Capela draws a very underrated matchup that plenty of centers have taken advantage of. He’s still ridiculously cheap and producing well enough for his price tag; don’t count last game where the Rockets won by a gazillion points.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8, ML: -370) – O/U: 205.5
—————Pace> NO: 9th – MEM: 28th
OFF Efficiency> NO: 27th – MEM: 18th
DEF Efficiency> NO: 8th – MEM: 4th
Matchup:
*Grizzlies won both meetings (@MEM: 89 – NO: 83), (MEM: 110 – @NO: 108)
*Grizzlies are 8-2 (7-3 ATS) versus the Pelicans in the last 10 meetings
*Six of the last nine Pelicans/Grizzlies games have gone OVER the total
NO:
*9-19 off an outright win as the underdog over the last two seasons
-Terrence Jones (OUT- missed last three games, sprained thumb)
-Dante Cunningham (QUESTIONABLE- missed last game, personal reasons)
Jrue Holiday will go underowned tonight like a he got the plague or something. Not many people will want to go up against the Grizzlies on a 14-game slate, but this is a decently calculated matchup that he can take advantage of.
MEM:
*42-26 ATS versus teams with a losing record over the last two seasons
-NO INJURIES
Zach Randolph might be the best play here, considering the Pelicans allow their opponents to grab the most rebounds per game in the NBA. The Grizzlies haven’t needed him much over the last couple of games, but that just means more rest for the old man.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets (-6, ML: -245) – O/U: 225.5
—————Pace> MIN: 24th – DEN: 5th
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 11th – DEN: 8th
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 24th – DEN: 30th
Matchup:
*Nuggets lead series 2-1 (DEN: 102 – @MIN: 99), (@DEN: 105 – MIN: 103), (@MIN: 111 – DEN: 108)
*Nuggets are 8-3 (7-4 ATS) versus the Timberwolves in their last 11 meetings
*Seven of the last 11 Timberwolves/Nuggets game have gone UNDER the total
MIN:
*4-4 on the back-end of B2Bs
*9-15 ATS on the road
-Lance Stephenson (DOUBTFUL- injured during last night’s game, ankle)
This isn’t as great of a spot for the Timberwolves than most people think, but I still think Andrew Wiggins can pay off on his price tag. It won’t be sneaky, but dude is balling outrageous without Zach LaVine in the lineup.
DEN:
-Danilo Gallinari (OUT indefinitely- groin)
-Kenneth Faried (OUT indefinitely- ankle)
-Darrell Arthur (OUT indefinitely- knee)
-Emmanuel Mudiay (OUT- missed last five games, back)
-Wilson Chandler (QUESTIONABLE- missed last game, illness)
Nikola Jokic.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns (-3, ML: ) – O/U: 226.5
—————Pace> LAL: 7th – PHX: 3rd
OFF Efficiency> LAL: 22nd – PHX: 24th
DEF Efficiency> LAL: 29th – PHX: 28th
Matchup:
*Season series tied (@LAL: 119 – PHX: 108), (PHX: 119 – @LAL: 115)
*Suns are 8-2 (7-2-1 ATS) versus the Lakers in the last 10 meetings
*Eight of the last 10 Lakers/Suns games have gone OVER the total
LAL:
-NO INJURIES
It’s tough to argue with anyone other than Lou Williams being the Lakers leading scorer tonight. He takes the most shots, looks like the best player and does the most with his minutes…something that not many Lakers can do for themselves.
PHX:
*2-7 ATS as the favorite
-Dragan Bender (OUT indefinitely- ankle)
So I guess Eric Bledsoe just needed to take a game off to get back to normal? His 47.9 FDP performance was one that we called around here at the DFS Army, and I’ll be the spokesman for a second consecutive one. The Lakers are on the back-end of a B2B and that gives me even more confidence.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz (-8.5, ML: -400) – O/U: 205.5
—————Pace> POR: 10th – UTA: 30th
OFF Efficiency> POR: 13th – UTA: 12th
DEF Efficiency> POR: 26th – UTA: 2nd
Matchup:
*Blazers won the only meeting (@POR: 113 – UTA: 104)
*Blazers are 6-3 (5-4 ATS) versus the Jazz in their last nine meetings
*Seven of the last nine meetings have gone OVER the total
POR:
*11-17 ATS on the road
-Al-Farouq Aminu (OUT- injured during last game, knee sprain)
-Evan Turner (OUT indefinitely- fractured hand)
I swear, this isn’t the “I love newly acquired players” article that you stumbled upon. Jusuf Nurkic is the bare bones minimum on FanDuel and the Blazers will likely need him to play a decent number of minutes, especially if they want to match him up against Rudy Gobert.
UTA:
*11-19 ATS at home
-Rodney Hood (OUT indefinitely- knee)
George Hill draws a fantastic matchup against Damian Lillard and the Blazers. Prior to Monday’s thrashing by the Clippers, Hill had been fairly productive in the previous four games with an average of 33.7 FDP.
New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-7, ML: -290) – O/U: 218.5
—————Pace> NYK: 12th – OKC: 6th
OFF Efficiency> NYK: 15th – OKC: 21st
DEF Efficiency> NYK: 25th – OKC: 10th
Matchup:
*Thunder won the only meeting (OKC: 112 – @NYK: 103)
*Thunder are 3-2 (2-3 ATS) versus the Knicks in their last five meetings
*Four of the last five Knicks/Thunder games have gone UNDER the total
NYK:
*5-5 on 2+ days of rest
-Joakim Noah (OUT- missed last four games, hamstring)
Kristaps Porzingis posted 42 FDP against OKC the first time these teams faced off and has three very good outings in the last six games. Tonight, you’ll see Carmelo Anthony defended by one of the best in the biz, Andre Roberson, and that could make him defer more to KP.
OKC:
*21-11 ATS as the favorite
*17-8 ATS versus teams with a losing record
-Enes Kanter (OUT indefinitely- broken forearm)
The Knicks have been getting torched by superstars all season, mainly because they don’t have a shutdown defender on the roster. Russell Westbrook posted a triple-double (75.2 DKP/65.4 FDP) against them back on November 28th and I’d be willing to bet the same thing goes down tonight.
Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, ML: -140) – O/U: 213
—————Pace> ATL: 11th – LAC: 17th
OFF Efficiency> ATL: 25th – LAC: 7th
DEF Efficiency> ATL: 5th – LAC: 14th
Matchup:
*Clippers have won only meeting (LAC: 115 – @ATL: 105)
*Hawks are 3-2 (and ATS) versus the Clippers in their last five meetings
ATL:
*10-5 ATS as the underdog
*70-49 ATS versus teams with a winning record over the last three seasons
Thabo Sefolosha (QUESTIONABLE- missed last eight games, groin)
Dwight Howard finally got back on the good foot last game, so let’s hope that that he can get it done for the second game in a row. Folks may be frightened by the fact the DeAndre Jordan mans the paint for the Clippers and oooooh, he blocks shots on SportsCenter. DJ has been beaten, and he will be beaten again.
LAC:
*22-12-2 ATS as the favorite
*15-9-1 at home
-Chris Paul (OUT indefinitely- thumb surgery)
Two viable GPP options from the Clippers could be Blake Griffin and Austin Rivers.
Griffin has been excellent over the last seven games and, on today’s podcast, I posed the question of whether he could be a better $/PT option than Nikola Jokic on this slate. Considering the Nuggets are taking on the Timberwolves, playing on the back-end of a B2B, there is a chance that the Clippers/Hawks game is a lot more competitive. Griffin’s matchup against Paul Millsap is one that should play out better in reality than it looks on paper.
Rivers could also be a great $/PT option as the Hawks are giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. He comes in at $5100 DK/$5200 FD, which is the second-cheapest price for a starting point guard (Tony Parker) and has consistently played minutes in the upper-30s lately.
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors (-17.5, ML: -6000) – O/U: 225
—————Pace> SAC: 27th – GS: 2nd
OFF Efficiency> SAC: 17th – GS: 1st
DEF Efficiency> SAC: 23rd – GS: 3rd
Matchup:
*Teams have split season series (GS: 117 – @SAC: 106), (@SAC: 109 – GS: 106)
*Warriors are 9-1 (7-3 ATS) versus the Kings in their last 10 meetings
SAC:
-Ty Lawson (QUESTIONABLE- missed last three games, leg injury)
-Omri Casspi (OUT indefinitely- foot)
-Garrett Temple (OUT indefinitely- hamstring)
DeMarcus Cousins and Darren Collison are the only viable plays from the Kings tonight. Also, Collison is only in play if Ty Lawson doesn’t play.
GS:
-Klay Thompson (QUESTIONABLE- missed last game, heel)
-Shaun Livingston (QUESTIONABLE- missed last game, personal reasons)
-Zaza Pachulia (OUT indefinitely- shoulder)
-David West (OUT indefinitely- thumb surgery)
Kevin Durant should be awfully inspired for tonight’s game, just days after the Warriors got their heads kicked in against the Nuggets. Typically, when the Warriors are double-digit favorites Durant still gets his usual amount of production.
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