Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
RECAP – For bigger slates, I’m moving to YouTube so we can more efficiently process the overwhelming information and go on about our busy days. Hook a brother up and give him a “subscribe” so you know when the bigger slates hit and I opt for this method. Hopefully, you guys respect that attempt at saving you time in your research process.
FEB 25 – Well, this is an awkward time of year filled with landmines…..the trade deadline. You can do a couple of things. 1- Be prepared for increased volatility and the likelihood you get screwed by playing a player getting traded in a couple of days. 2- Play lighter for a bit and just enjoy the ride. I opt for the second. I’m not into getting screwed. DFS isn’t as much about playing everyday as it is about picking profitable spots. When the volatility goes up, we go down. Pretty simple philosophy that separates the skilled from the degenerate. Pay heed and play on.
If Brand New to DFS NHL
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. DFS NHL is a highly volatile sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
Elite Options
This slate is looking like a shit show on paper. No dominant offense laces up tonight, and most of these teams are defensive minded. Yuck. That said, let’s sift through the steaming pile of dung…
1- LA Kings – None of these teams are scoring a lot of fantasy points over the past few weeks, so we dip down to activity. LA shoots quite often over this period ranking 3rd. They matchup against MIN who has been giving up the 3rd most shots across the same period. Compared to these specific teams, MIN has played near the softest defense of the group lately. Vegas supports this idea in dropping their moneyline from an opening of about -160 all the way down to -135 as of this morning. Shaper money is leaning to LA…..I will be too.
2- Tampa Bay Lightning – Again, when we have very little to choose from, we have to make choices. I’m not happy about any of what I’m writing this morning, honestly. But, such is the life of a contributor. At least I’m honest about it. I would rather have your trust than your blind devotion. I will tell you when I think a slate is great and when one is complete garbage. I’m not trying to make bold calls. That’s not my deal. I’m simply stacking up the odds and letting them fall where they may over a long season. I’m a grinder, and if you appreciate my style, you are a grinder, too. You likely value smoothing variance as well.
That said, Vegas is loving TB tonight. That moneyline is moving in their direction as the day starts. I don’t like the o/u of a whopping 5, but tonight we just don’t have the choices to avoid this one.
Secondary Options
The part I’ll slide under “secondary” today is simple, all these offenses are secondary. I prefer the LA matchup, but MIN can be an offensive team. I think the Wild get squelched a bit by such a defensive team in LA, but they may also surge under the ownership’s recent acquisition of ARI’s Hanzal and deepened commitment to go for it all this year. I usually avoid NJ, but today I’m intrigued for some reason by MTL. The Habs haven’t been great for an extended period of time now, but NJ has shown holes in it’s armor lately, too. This might be a night to strike. But, in all honesty, this slate is pretty wide open with a bunch of mediocrity.
Mediocrity plays right into my hands……spread out wide. Catch pieces of it all. Build a balanced lineup and take no more than 2 skaters from any one team. That’s where I’m going. I can guarantee you that.
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in DFS NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
1- There honestly isn’t one. Dubnyk is in play. I also think Vasilevskiy in TB is in play. I don’t think Budaj comes in new and slides into the pipes here. After losing 3 in a row, I can’t imagine Corey Schneider is going to be a huge favorite. Again, though, any of them are in play for GPPs if you think you have a sure winner. But, for cash, you might want to lean on Vegas to direct you. Picking the Vegas favorite also tends to land you on a chalky pick, which is great for cash game insulation. However, there won’t likely be much of a favorite tonight the way things look right now. Again, it’s a wide open slate.
Secondary Options
Why No DFS NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
But wait, there’s more…
If you like what you are reading both here and on our site, you might be a VIP in the making. As a contributor and coach I may specialize in research and eliminating the growth curve for beginners, but we have coaches in our community for the experts, too. I serve to cut your time down by doing that early grunt work for you. Then, our experts and pros take over to help you max out your potential no matter what it is.
Sign up at dfsarmy.com and use my code CHOP. Using that code entitles you to a lifetime, grandfathered discount of 20% for as long as you stay a member ($20 down to $16 isn’t something to scoff at). I’m going to add that I was told our subscriptions are going up so we can add more sports to our already mind-blowing Domination Station optimizer. This optimizer popped not one, but TWO $11,000 winners in NBA this month! If you get in now, that $16/mo stays put even when prices go up. If not, well, I can’t help you other than to offer you 20% off the new price. Don’t miss out!
All DFS sports are covered, and the real value is in our real-time coaching from our VIP Only slack chat forum. Both coaches and experienced regulars put ego aside (mostly, I mean it is sports) to develop you into a competitive, winning player. Add in our stats spreadsheets, elite lineup optimizer and player picks and you’ve found one-stop-shopping for not only NHL lineups, but all of DFS. Give us a look!
Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings Lineup
Very balanced with one-offs everywhere. Spread out and hope all the games go 3-2 or 2-1. Great cash strategy tonight if you are comfortable letting everyone else stack somewhere and miss.
FanDuel Lineup
Guess right and you are well on your way. Stack up a game and start spreading from there. Heck, if you like, stack up a game and stack up another. Any strategy is on the table tonight. Play it safe or really put yourself out there, choice is yours.
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut