Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
RECAP – For bigger slates, I’m moving to YouTube so we can more efficiently process the overwhelming information and go on about our busy days. Hook a brother up and give him a “subscribe” so you know when the bigger slates hit and I opt for this method. Hopefully, you guys respect that attempt at saving you time in your research process.
FEB 15th was solid. If you took the STL goalie, you did well on that shutout alone. Our targets were rather spread out and that paid off in cash. We had pieces of everything and that hopefully caught enough pieces of the right stuff for you.
If Brand New to DFS NHL
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. DFS NHL is a highly volatile sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
Elite Options
1- Pittsburgh Penguins – Elite offense any given night, however, tonight runs us up against a slightly slumping Jets squad. The Jets have allowed 10th most shots, 2nd most fantasy points over 4 weeks, and 4th most last week. I like looking at 4 wk vs 1 wk numbers to see which direction teams are trending. WPG is still running soft on defense. This is a big green light for an offense like the Pens that consistently run top 3 across the board. With Malkin back, I’d fire up nearly any Pen in either format cash or GPP. I’d spread out in cash and stack hard in GPP. If you took 5 skaters tonight in GPPs to overload your exposure, I wouldn’t argue with you. It could be that good.
2- LA Kings – Not exactly the offense we look to for scoring, but the Kings have been really stout lately. Might as well play that hot hand while it’s there. Top 10 in shooting on the season, LA is top 5 in points produced over it’s last 3 games. And, they draw the lowly Arizona Coyotes in their home barn. ARI gives up more shots on goal than every team in the league not named Buffalo. ARI is also a bottom 10 team in fantasy points allowed over both the 4 week period and last week, indicating they are still a great target. Hot teams facing bad teams is where we like to center our focus in DFS.
Secondary Options
4- Minnesota Wild – The Wild draw Dallas tonight and we know Dallas can give up some points. Dallas can shoot back, too, so this might be a shootout type game where it takes 4 goals to win. One can only hope. I’ll be focused on the Wild side, though, because MIN has been a strong offensive team all year outside of a few sputters. The -190 from Vegas and the 5.5 game total supports us targeting this game and specifically the MIN side.
5- Buffalo Sabres – Not your traditional target on such a large slate, but I do like them tonight. Buffalo has been mediocre lately on the offensive side, but they have shown some pop when running up against bad teams. Well, Colorado ain’t no juggernaut. COL allows shots, and gives points over both periods I look at. Buffalo should see a bump. BUF also sees a nice matchup on special teams tonight. BUF has the best power play in the league this year and COL has a bottom 5 kill. I would be focused on PP skaters in this one.
Honorable Mention – There are a few others to mention, but I wanted to focus on the Rangers/Islanders game. You have a couple of solid teams facing off here. While the Rangers have won their past 6 in a row, the Islanders are a top 10 offense over the past month and across the season. This is a game most won’t stack, so if you like GPPs, dig into it a little. As a contrarian option, I would also look at including some COL skaters. Why? They are actually 9-1 vs BUF in their last 10 meetings. Should that streak continue, I guarantee you no one will be with you. Everyone will be focused on the Sabers side. People also love Lehner right now for value in GPPs. If he gets beat and gives up 4 goals, you sit really pretty doing double the damage to those owners. VAN is another sneaky play, as STL comes off 5 road victories in a row and can’t keep this pace up. The Vegas line is already coming off it’s strong open in favor of STL. This is a classic trap game where STL might just relax a little and take the foot off the gas.
Don’t think those two contrarian plays are for stacking the crap out of. That’s not how you win. I don’t see both those games going reverse AND blowing out in the underdogs’ favor. But, including a skater or two, maybe a full line from one of them, and you might see yourself well differentiated off the chalk…..even if you use the Penguins as their counterparts. THAT’s how you win by being contrarian. It’s doesn’t take as much low ownership as people think.
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in DFS NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
1- Peter Budaj – My chalk. Why? Budaj is facing ARI while he sits at home. He carries a -250 Vegas line into this one, a 5 over/under total, LA suppresses shots and is playing well offensively, and his recent form sports 6 wins in his last 8 with 3 shutouts over that span. If that was his resume, he’s hired.
Secondary Options
2- Devan Dubnyk – Also in play, as usual. Dallas can score, but Dubs is 4 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 9 in net. I like those odds when Vegas drops the -190 on him. He is also a safe bet to get the win. I just hope he doesn’t give up a lot of goals in the process.
Why no Jake Allen or Marc-Andre Fleury? First, for Allen, read the above about it being a “trap” game. That explains him away in cash. For GPPs, sure give him a shot, but you can’t bitch if it backfires. For Fleury, his recent form is poor. He has lost 3 of his last 4 and has given some goals away. I’ll stick with the top two options.
Why No DFS NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
But wait, there’s more…
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Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings Lineup 1
Balanced for cash. Carter/Pearson are a bit stacked and Niederreiter/Pominville overlap on their PP. $5400/player left gives you plenty of room to play.
FanDuel Lineup 1
Game stacked with our two target teams.
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut