Welcome to the world’s fastest lineup breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
RECAP – For bigger slates, I’m moving to YouTube so we can more efficiently process the overwhelming information and go on about our busy days. Hook a brother up and give him a “subscribe” so you know when the bigger slates hit and I opt for this method. Hopefully, you guys respect that attempt at saving you time in your research process.
It’s been awhile here because we have had some weird slates over the past week or 10 days. Big ones worthy of videos and super small ones warranting nothing. Well, we have a perfect one today of 7 games, so let’s get out the knife and fork and dig in…
If Brand New to DFS NHL
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. DFS NHL is a highly volatile sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
Elite Options
1- Winnipeg Jets – This is actually quite the toss up game tonight, and it should be the chalk. WPG, however, is reeling. They have lost 4 in a row and that can’t be sitting well with locals and fans. Dallas does give up points, though, so this might be a get-right game for the Jets. Vegas is supportive with a game total of 6.0, so we might just trust that and take both sides of this game. I’m not going overboard….just in case, though.
2- Dallas Stars – The flipside of this game has another fast paced team blowing into town. If we look at the meat, we find two top 10 offensive teams up against two bottom 3 defenses. Action should be had all over tonight regardless of recent play. Add in the fact both penalty kills really stink, and we need to make sure our players see minutes on the man advantage here.
3- New York Islanders – You might want exposure here in case that top game bombs. The Isles are scoring for us in bunches over the past month and have proven fairly reliable. TOR is on a bit of a cooler and, as usual, gives up crazy numbers of shots and points against. This is a green light for Islanders players tonight. It should be a “high event” game on both sides, so there should be some floor here for your cash game consideration.
Secondary Options
4- Pittsburgh Penguins – You might think I’m nuts for listing the Pens under “secondary.” Well, I can live with that. The Pens are never a bad offensive option, but I feel they take a slight hit simply because the others are in better spots with cheaper skaters. Don’t hesitate to use them, though. It’s never a bad thing to have PIT in your lineups.
5- Ottawa Senators – Sneaky spot of sorts. We know BUF gives up shots on goal like mad. The Senators have been scoring recently and still carry cheap price tags with them. If you want a sneakier GPP option, this might be where you look tonight.
Honorable Mention – Before you think I’m completely off my rocker, hear me out. ARI and COL are really sneaky tonight. ARI had zero ownership last night on a 2 game slate yet demolished the Flames. You might think that’s an outlier of sorts, but let me point out over the past month ARI is now the 9th ranked offense in the league. What, you say? Well, look it up. They warrant consideration. Should I toss in they also have a matchup dominating record vs EDM over their last 10 meetings? 7-2-1 is impressive for a team everyone overlooks. As for COL, they are 9-0-1 in their last 10 vs NJ. If you are a lover of low ownership, these are your teams tonight. Sprinkle them in, or just drop your balls in a dump truck and take a big swing.
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in DFS NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
1- Matt Murray (PIT) – This dude should be 75% across the board tonight. If he’s not, well, those getting cute with goalies should have their bankrolls confiscated immediately. VAN doesn’t travel well, he has won 7 of his last 10, and hasn’t allowed more than 3 goals in his last 9. Add in the Vegas odds of -250 and you have the obvious pick of the night.
2- Devan Dubnyk (MIN) – Always in play, but just not in as safe a spot as Murray. Sure, he’s won his last 4 starts, can shut anyone out, and is usually very safe. He’s just not the strong option Murray is above. You are slightly overthinking this one imo if you roll him out in more than 20% of your lineups tonight.
Secondary Options
3- Corey Schneider (NJ) – Hold on a minute, Jack. I see that -185 Vegas line and want to look into Corey, too. But, slow your roll a bit. NJ hasn’t been strong at home and COL has a 9-0-1 record against them over a significant sample. I know it’s COL, but with a -250 favorite on board you don’t need to look at this game for a goalie.
4- If you need more options, you have an overthinking problem. Read my link below on “Cash Game Strategies” and come back after you’ve been set straight. We don’t overthink goalies in NHL.
Why No DFS NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
But wait, there’s more…
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Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings Lineup 1 – Cash Safe
This isn’t about the specific players as much as it’s about the construction method. 2 skaters off 3 different teams gives us a little connection and balance without spreading out too wide across games or narrowing down too closely on one line and taking on all that risk. This is a cash play to increase our floor. If these games go high scoring, we likely catch pieces. If not, we have other games to focus our team on. We are hoping of these 3 games, two of them hit 4+ goals and we have ourselves spread out enough to catch most of those points.
FanDuel Lineup 1 – Fair and Balanced
This one is more narrowed down and set up for GPPs. Notice the chalky DAL/WPG game is gone. We are hoping the offense we target outside of that one goes big while the chalk game disappoints a bit. When this happens, we are set up well. We also have more ceiling potential with a couple of the PIT guys being on the top line and the same PP unit with Schultz…..all correlated. If a goal comes off this line, odds are we get the goal and both assists. It’s risky, though. If another line does the damage, we miss out on all those points…..hence the GPP nature of the lineup.
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut