Today, I want to look at analyzing GPPs. You might know me as a cash game player, but that doesn’t mean I don’t look for edges in everything I do. My two strengths in teaching newer players are Bankroll Management and Contest Selection. I have articles on both, but have never really dug into teaching you what to look for in the GPPs. So, it’s about time we do just that.
First, I need to pay homage to one of my favorite golf personalities and one of my heroes. Still too soon to look at pics like this and not still feel the anger of hearing his plane was heading over the Dakotas with no life on it and they were just going to have to let it run out of gas. I still get pissed about this like my mom gets over the day the music died.
Next, we need to look at two things: 1- What is a GPP? 2- What type of GPP player are you?
What Is a GPP?
Very simple. A Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) is any contest that is guaranteed to run and pay out even if it doesn’t fill. However, the DFS industry usually talks of these contests a little more specifically. When we talk about GPPs, we mean contests that typically pay out less than the top third of entrants. GPPs are your big contests; the ones that hold thousands of players. They are top-heavy in their pay structure, and they require you to take aggressive chances to win because finishing less than very near the top pays no better than your mother’s allowance. However, all GPPs are NOT created equal. (More on that later.)
What type of GPP player are you?
This can be answered a couple of ways. Me? I’m a cash game player. I like winning everyday instead of the long upswings and downswings that come with being exclusively a GPP player. I build my lineups with safety in mind. Sure, I take some chances, but I’m more concerned with hitting the cash lines than really hanging my balls out there for the win. I enter GPPs because I know even my lineup has a small chance of hitting the nuts, and I want to be there the day it does.
Maybe you think I’m a big wuss. You might be the type of player that would play a 10,000 player contest and hope it’s a winner-take-all because you think 2nd place is really just the 1st place loser. Maybe your balls need a “team lift” sign on them. You might even kick them when you walk. Upswings and downswings don’t bother you. You are in this shit for the glory, baby! You are the next DFS millionaire!
If that’s you, we are different people. And, the faster you realize you are either my brother, or my evil twin, the better…..for you. We need to attack our GPPs in a slightly different way. Let’s look at some samples of PGA GPPs (hence the pic of my boy Payne) and their pay structures so you can better find the contests you should be entering.
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Contest #1 – Single Entry, Flatter Structure GPPs
Now, there is a rule of thumb with GPPs. Generally, you will find they pay out the top 20%, with about 10X your entry fee going to a top 1% lineup and about 10% of the total payout going to the winner. For example, a $1 entry, $1000 guaranteed payout GPP with 1000 players, by this rule, would pay the top 200 people, would pay the 10th place player $10, and would pay the winner $100. Easy enough on the math (screw the house’s take, it complicates shit)? Of course, it’s hypothetical.
Here are two screenshots of a Single-Entry guaranteed prize pool that favors a cash player more.
This GPP is a $1 entry, holds 5,882 players, and has a $5,000 prize pool. I want you to compare what I said was the “rule of thumb” to the structure of this GPP. Yes, it requires a little math. If you don’t enjoy doing some basic math in your head, well, DFS might not be your thing. News flash: DFS contains math.
The first thing I actually look for is what percentage of entrants get paid. 1,150 of 5,882 get paid here, or the top 19.55%. Ok, so not great for me. I’d prefer more, but it’s fairly standard. I look next at the winnings for a top 1% lineup. In the contests I like to play, a top 1% lineup can pay upwards of 25X. This is a trade-off since I’m going to make a lot of 1% lineups with my style, but no one wants to do way better than that and stop at 25X when they can make 100X or 1000X. Part of knowing who you are as a GPP player is knowing where to cap yourself. How much is good enough? The balance between winning often and winning a lot of money is one serious DFS players and pros need to make for themselves.
Here, 1% of 5,882 players is 58.5 or 59 if we round the number. 59th place pays $7 or 7X our entry fee. Again, not the 10X we want, and I’m not too happy about this. I’d rather win $25 than $7. Next, we look at the winner’s payout. $300 goes to 1st place. Ok, well, in a $5000 payout, $300 isn’t the 10% we are looking for. Honestly, not one of our base parameters was met here. Why? RAKE! The house cut here is siphoning off a ton of money. While not necessarily a bad thing (all companies need to make money), we need to understand some contests are better than others.
Contest #2 – Single-Entry, Heavier at the top
Here are the same screenshots, but of our next example…
We’ve moved up to a $5 entry, 1,176 player, $5000 prize pool event for this GPP. The top 225 get paid here. 225 of the 1,176 is another 19.1%, which again is pretty standard. The famous 1% we look for is 11.7th…or 12th. Much better because we see the 10X here at $50 in winnings. And, the winner is getting that 10%, or $500. This one is similar to the first one but the rake isn’t hitting quite as hard here.
Another caveat to GPPs I’d like to share is about the overall size of the GPP. When you are a cash type player that builds heavy floors and safer lineups, you should be looking at these “smaller” GPPs. Why? Your lineup can win them! You don’t have to take some whackass, crazy and obscure guess at some piece of turd that randomly has the week of his life to put you over the top. It’s much easier to beat 1,100 people than 5,882 people than 20,000 people than 130,000 people if you think about it. When you build safer lineups, you are not typically taking the crazy chances it takes to pull off that once in a lifetime lineup combination. So, don’t play in contests that require such perfection and give yourself a shot at winning them.
In 2016, we learned of a NFL player that entered the Milly Maker on DraftKings. He placed 20 points off of 1st place. Instead of winning the $1,000,000 he won about $20,000. You think “great” to yourself and move on with your day. You think that until a jackass like me comes along and points out you would have WON a 10,000 player event with that score and pocketed $100,000. And, now you want to shoot yourself……right after you shoot me. It happens all the time. I will forever recommend players focus on smaller GPPs, unless they are taking those crazy shots that can beat 100,000 people.
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Contest #3 – Limited Multi-Entry GPPs
FYI, these are also easier to win. I’ll explain why below. For now, here are your screenshots of a 3 entry max, $5 buy in, 14,100 player pool with a $60,000 total payout to all.
You are likely getting the hang of this now. 3,575 places paid of 14,100 players is the top 25.3%. We might have a winner for a cash gamer. But, it generally comes at a price. Top 1% lineup would be 141 and would receive $40….not quite 9X. This is likely because of stretching out the entries paid from 19% like before to 25%. It also comes from the top. The winner here gets $3,000 or 5% of the total prize pool.
If you are me, you are just fine with this trade-off. If you are the guy with the balls in the dump truck, you hate this and want more up top for the winner. You don’t care about the 25% or the 19% because that just doubles your money anyway. You want a full $6k for your efforts. I don’t blame you. It’s just not me.
The reason this GPP is a beauty, though, is the limitation to 3 entries max. When a player has only one lineup he can enter, he can’t cover his bases and really take chances. When a player has 150 entries he can throw in at a GPP, he can get so crazy it borders on needing to be admitted to the asylum. 3 max GPPs are a nice balance. You can take a few shots, and a risk here and there, but something really stupid isn’t required to win the whole thing. Granted 14k players will take more to win than 5k players, it’s not so crazy because you get 3 hacks at it.
Another little thing about these multi-entry tourneys is their money lines, and winning scores, are typically higher than similarly sized single-entry contests. To study this, play a $2 multi-entry double up and a $2 single-entry double up and see which typically has the harder money line to hit. When players take more shots, they often produce higher scores within the event. Once you know this, you can either play them appropriately or just avoid them.
Contest #4 – Big Multi-Entry GPPs
Our final example shows a $1 multi-entry GPP with 50 lineups possible per player. $15,000 in total prizes and 17,600 players/lineups fighting for the prize money.
A whopping 4,630 get paid here, but how sweet is that really? Divided into the 17,600 players and you have to be a top 26.3%….the best yet for cash gamers. However, again, it comes at a cost. 1% is 176th and lands in the $8 range….or 8X. Not a bad sacrifice, again, if you like the payouts at the bottom because you hit those most often. The top prize, however, is really pretty shitty for the amount of money up for grabs. $500 seems nice, but in reality it’s only 3% of the total prize pool. As we’ve seen, we can do much better if we are a more ballsy player.
If a cash gamer, though, it might be right up our alley. This indicates a very flat pay structure from top to bottom. We can hit this with some pretty chalky lineups, take a few chances within those lineups, and have a great chance at cashing in this one with the added benefit of upside to win.
The 19th Hole
The idea here was simply to show you how to bust up a payout structure and make you think a bit more analytically when it comes to your guaranteed prize pools of choice. Make sure you find your style and play contests that cater to your strength. You will win more, or maximize your profit when you do well. In a game like DFS with such small edges over our competition, we simply have to out-think our opponents and every little bit helps us realize that edge. If you have questions, I’m in our VIP slack chat (DFS Army) and on Twitter again @ChoppoDong. Remember, we also cover all the major sports with coaches and experienced regulars ready to help you in whichever sport you choose to pursue.