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Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers (-10.5, ML: -725) – O/U: 219
—————Pace> BKN: 1st – IND: 12th
OFF Efficiency> BKN: 26th – IND: 20th
DEF Efficiency> BKN: 27th – IND: 16th
Spread Notes:
-Nets are 1-16 away from Barclays Center this season
-Pacers have a three-game winning streak (covered all three ATS), after losing four straight (0-4 ATS)
BKN:
-Jeremy Lin (out- missed last three games, hamstring)
-Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (out- hip tendinitis)
Brook Lopez probably has the best matchup of any Net tonight, but I can’t stand the fact that the guy doesn’t grab any boards. In fact, he hasn’t grabbed 10 of them since November 15th, against the Lakers, of all teams. Gross.
Trevor Booker has played a lot better recently, but it’s rare that his upside emerges when the night is over. He popped off for 39 FDP in his last game, but that was aided by extra incentive going up against his former team.
Sean Kilpatrick has seen his price tag drop to a virtually free level, but that’s what happens when you have a total of nearly 20 FDP in your last two games combined. He does have a great matchup against a Pacers team that has allowed 10 games of 30+ fantasy points to shooting guards since December 5th. Next level shit, right there.
IND:
-Rodney Stuckey (out- missed nine of last 10 games, hamstring)
Paul George is still priced quite generously on FanDuel at $7900 ($8500 on DK) and he gets a matchup against the fourth-worst defense and, individually, against Bojan Bogdanovic- one of the worst defenders in the NBA. If Jeff Teague is still a bit hobbled with that ankle injury, we could see a massive night from PG13. If they are both in, I expect them both to do well. There’s not much analysis here- the Nets are terrible on defense and these two should get bizaaay.
Myles Turner has a fantastic matchup, and he’s posted totals of 31.2 and 35.1 FDP against the Nets in two games this season. The Nets also give up more fantasy points to the center position than any other team on this slate.
Since this is the Nets, I don’t mind taking a chance on some cheaper GPP dart plays like Glenn Robinson III, Al Jefferson, Monta Ellis or CJ Miles. They are all very risky but could see additional minutes if this game gets out of hand.
Utah Jazz @ Toronto Raptors (-6, ML: -235) – O/U: 199.5
—————Pace> UTA: 30th – TOR: 19th
OFF Efficiency> UTA: 10th – TOR: 2nd
DEF Efficiency> UTA: 2nd – TOR: 17th
Spread Notes:
-Lowest total and slowest pace of the night
-Jazz are 3-7 outright in their last 10, Raptors are 4-6
-Jazz are 3-8 ATS as underdog, 1-7 ATS as road underdog
-Raptors are 15-9 ATS as favorite, 9-5 ATS as home favorite
UTA:
-George Hill (out- missed last three games, concussion)
-Dante Exum (questionable- missed last seven games, knee)
Rudy Gobert is the one guy from the Jazz that I have major interest in. We’ve can attack the Raptors frontcourt time-and-time again this season and Gobert rarely, if ever, kills your lineup. Derrick Favors is starting to poke his head back into relevancy once again and it’s probably best to latch onto the 28.7 FDP he dropped last game before most people do. I sort of poo-pooed the idea of Favors on today’s podcast, but that was early in the day and I’ve had time to think about how great of a matchup this is for him.
Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack are two guys that I could take or leave in this situation. Both have fairly reasonable matchups, but the pace and projected total have me looking elsewhere.
TOR:
-Patrick Patterson (questionable- missed last two games, knee)
It’s all about Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan in this matchup; I am not trying to mess around with the Utah frontcourt, and that’s that. The Raptors absolutely chumped it in San Antonio on Tuesday night against the #1 defense in the NBA, and I think that lesson will help them tonight against the #2 defense. Prior to Tuesday, Lowry was absolutely crushing it and I expect him to get back on the good foot tonight. DRZ doesn’t exactly have the greatest matchup, but I think the Raptors will have to defer to their two-headed backcourt monster relentlessly.
Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons (-4, ML: -185) – O/U: 208
—————Pace> CHA: 15th – DET: 26th
OFF Efficiency> CHA: 12th – DET: 21st
DEF Efficiency> CHA: 7th – DET: 10th
Spread Notes:
-The total on this game opened at 204.5, has since jumped up to 208
-Hornets are an underdog for only the ninth time in 37 games (2-5-1 ATS as dog)
-Pistons are 3-7 outright in their last 10 games
CHA:
-Cody Zeller (doubtful- missed last two games, concussion protocol)
The Hornets are on the back-end of a B2B going against a solid defense, so I’m going to chill out with my exposure here. Nicolas Batum and Kemba Walker are the only two guys here that I would look to because of their matchups.
DET:
-Aron Baynes (doubtful- missed last game, ankle)
The last time Andre Drummond faced off against the Hornets, he went all Barbara Walters on them with a 26 point-20 rebound performance. With Zeller out of the lineup, the Hornets have struggled a little more defending down low; this gives our boy Drumm Ditty Dumm the most advantageous outlook of any center on the slate. One drawback, however, is Hornets coach Steve Clifford, who has done a decent job of devising game plans against opposing centers…ask Hassan Whiteside. This may just be my usually skeptical self, but I won’t be surprised if Drummond only goes for around 35-40 FDP.
Tobias Harris and Jon Leuer are both very interesting to me. We have been able to use power forwards against the Hornets all season, so I don’t see a reason to stop now. Harris is only usable if he’s coming off the bench, where he is depended on more by the second unit. There’s a chance that Leuer could take a backseat to the Drumm Diddy Dumm show, but if my skeptical theory rings true then he’ll be left open for most of his time on the court.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets (-9, ML: -400) – O/U: 224
—————Pace> OKC: 7th – HOU: 4th
OFF Efficiency> OKC: 15th – HOU: 3rd
DEF Efficiency> OKC: 9th – HOU: 15th
Spread Notes:
-The nine-point spread for the Rockets is quite indicative. Keep in mind, for the first two games of this season series had the spreads set as: Thunder -2.5 and Rockets -1.5 … Now we’re at Rockets -9? OK…
-Rockets are 16-2 outright since December 1st (12-6 ATS in that span)
-Thunder are 1-3 ATS in their last four games
Before we get to the breakdown, I’m just going to leave this here…
OKC:
This is the back-end of a B2B for OKC, so Russell Westbrook may have to do a lot of heavy lifting all by himself…and that could get his team into a bit of trouble tonight. If Patrick Beverley is able to go for the Rockets tonight, he’s going to create fits all over the joint for Westbrook. A very underrated part of the matchup is that Beverley is dealing with a wrist injury, and he could be 100% consumed with playing defense and just leave the offense to everyone else. Off-the-wall theory from me, once again, but it does another layer to the “Fade Westbrook” narrative.
If Beverley is out, Westbrook is a FULL GO for me.
Steven Adams will likely be a popular play tonight, but I don’t know if I want my center to be from a team that is a nine-point underdog. However, his price is still low enough that he can come close to value on points alone and that doesn’t make it a total fade for me. Enes Kanter has only killed your lineup once in the last eight games and OKC may look his way a little more tonight for some extra scoring. Some may have some interest in Victor Oladipo, but I am not one of them. I want to see how he performs in his first B2B spot since returning from injury; if he’s the one that beats me, so be it.
HOU:
-Clint Capela (out- long term injury, leg)
James Harden has not done well (compared to his price) this season against OKC, but I may take the chance on him since the Rockets are nine-point favorites and OKC is on a B2B. You would have to think The Beard is going to have a hand in this matter, so it’s a decently calculated move to go this way.
If you think Harden doesn’t do anything and it’ll be his supporting cast that does the most damage, I would think Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Montrezl Harrell and Eric Gordon are the guys that would pick up the scraps. Those would be some bitchin’ scraps, ey? Of note, Ariza has posted at least 32 FDP in each of the last three games, Anderson has had some big games and Harrell and Gordon have been fairly consistent. I don’t think you can go wrong either way.
Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans (-2, ML: -130) – O/U: 206
—————Pace> ATL: 8th – NO: 10th
OFF Efficiency> ATL: 22nd – NO: 28th
DEF Efficiency> ATL: 5th – NO: 6th
Spread Notes:
-Pelicans hammered the Hawks back on November 22nd in Atlanta, 112-94
-Pelicans are 5-8 ATS as favorite, 4-7 ATS as home favorite
ATL:
The Hawks should come back strong against a team that smacked them around earlier in the year. I mentioned in the spread notes how poorly the Pelicans have done as a favorite this season, especially at home, and that’s got me thinking that the Hawks are gold here. Note: On today’s podcast I had a much different outlook on this game, but that’s why this article comes out later in the day. I find out more information, and then BOOM! Straight to your computer screen, or cellular phone device…
Paul Millsap is my favorite play from the Hawks, with Dwight Howard coming in as a close second. Millsap will likely draw Dante Cunningham instead of AD, and I find that to be a much more advantageous matchup, in my opinion. As an extra nugget, check out what Millsap has done in B2B scenarios this season…
NO:
-Donatas Motiejunas (questionable- just signed to team)
Anthony Davis has a very interesting matchup against Dwight Howard. On one hand, he can draw him out to the perimeter and do his work out there. On the other hand, Howard could absolutely mangle him body-to-body. I happen to think AD will be just fine, but if you’re going to roster him you have to basically make the decision between him and the two studs involved in the Rockets/Thunder game.
Jrue Holiday will sport goggles or a mask of some sort tonight and, if the past has taught us anything, this is good! Guys like Richard Hamilton, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook have all rocked some sort of face candy in their careers and excelled while doing so. If you don’t buy that silly narrative, maybe you’ll buy the fact that Holiday has posted totals of 38.3 and 37.3 FDP in his last two games and the Hawks have been the third worst team against point guards this season.
Buddy Hield has actually been worth taking a look at lately. He’s put up 27 FDP in two of his last three games and the Hawks do struggle against jump shooters.
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks (-5, ML: -205) – O/U: 204.5
—————Pace> PHX: 2nd – DAL: 29th
OFF Efficiency> PHX: 25th – DAL: 23rd
DEF Efficiency> PHX: 23rd – DAL: 22nd
Spread Notes:
-When the Mavs are favored, take notice … 2-0 ATS this season in 35 games
-Mavs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
-Suns 15-13-1 ATS as underdog
PHX:
-Brandon Knight (questionable- missed last game, wrist)
Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker were my go-to guys for the Suns tonight, but Brandon Knight will be back for this game and that’ll take some minutes away from the two. I really don’t have much interest outside of those players, except for maybe Tyson Chandler and that’s about it.
DAL:
-JJ Barea (out- long term injury, leg)
-Andrew Bogut (probable- hurt last game, knee)
With the Mavs favored by a significant amount, a pace-up boost from the Suns AND it being Deron Williams Bobblehead Night, the possibilities are endless. The aforementioned D-Will is in a fantastic spot tonight, especially since point guards have been crushing them all season.
Harrison Barnes is in line to do some damage. The price tag on Barnes is getting up there at $7000 DK/$6900 FD but he does have one of the best matchups on the board against rookie Marquese Chriss, who is going through each and every single growing pain on the defensive end. I don’t mind Wesley Matthews either because of his consistency.
San Antonio Spurs (-7, ML: -290) @ Denver Nuggets – O/U: 213
—————Pace> SA: 27th – DEN: 5th
OFF Efficiency> SA: 5th – DEN: 11th
DEF Efficiency> SA: 1st – DEN: 28th
Spread Notes:
-Spurs are 5-1 outright in their last six games, 5-1 ATS in that same span
-Nuggets are 2-5 outright in their last seven games, 1-6 ATS in that same span
SA:
It’s really a pick of the litter with the Spurs tonight. The Nuggets are completely lost on the defensive end, and their head coach Mike Malone even went as far as to say they are the worst defensive team in the NBA.
Kawhi Leonard finally got rid of his illness and went all sorts of HAM on the Raptors in Tuesday’s game. He is a fine play, just as his running mate LaMarcus Aldridge is as well. Both guys have phenomenal matchups and I’m not sure how they could be stopped tonight. On another note, it’s tough to get excited about Pau Gasol while LMA is balling outrageous.
The other play to look at here is Tony Parker. Point guards have absolutely crushed point guards this season and TP9 has exceeded 5x value in five straight games, despite averaging 26.6 minutes in that span.
DEN:
-Kenneth Faried (questionable- missed last two games, back)
The only guys I’m interested in tonight are Nikola Jokic, Wilson Chandler and Jusuf Nurkic.
Jokic has been the belle of the ball these last couple games, but people may completely abandon him in this matchup against the Spurs. That might be a mistake if he’s matched up against Gasol because we have seen centers do some serious damage against him.
Chandler has been getting love everywhere around the internet today and I think he stands a chance to do well, as long as LMA doesn’t put him into foul trouble. In a perfect world, Chandler will be able to sit out on the perimeter and try to take him off the dribble…where I think he can be successful.
Nurkic is a total longshot play. We all know how handsy Jokic can be and against a very talented frontcourt, I can certainly see that happening. After all, this is a calculated move since Nurkic has posted B2B 30+ fantasy point games.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers (-6, ML: -240) – O/U: 214
—————Pace> LAL: 6th – POR: 9th
OFF Efficiency> LAL: 19th – POR: 9th
DEF Efficiency> LAL: 30th – POR: 29th
Spread Notes:
-Blazers are 7-9 outright at home this season
-Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
-Lakers are 2-7 outright in their last nine games (5-4 ATS in that span)
LAL:
-Larry Nance Jr (out- long term injury, knee)
-Luol Deng (questionable- bicep tendonitis)
Julius Randle has been a freak of nature lately, and I expect him to be a fairly popular play. He has exceeded 5x value in four of his last five games and is going up against the second-worst defense in the NBA. Being in the late night hammer game certainly doesn’t hurt either.
D’Angelo Russell will go overlooked and I think that’s a big mistake since he gets to deal with a hobbled Lillard, who is already a bad defender. D-Russ has played 30+ minutes in six of the last seven games, been at/exceeded 5x value in his last two games and this is as good of a matchup as there is. I really like him a lot tonight as a low-owned assassin.
Nick Young is another candidate to do some damage at a lower ownership level tonight. All he does is score points, but against the NBA’s second-worst defense there could be a chance that is all he needs to do.
POR:
Damian Lillard is back tonight and CJ McCollum fans are groaning all over the joint. I think both guys are in play against the NBA’s worst defense, but I’m not as giddy about Lillard because I have to hold true to my “see how they do first” attitude.
Mason Plumlee is one of my favorite centers on the entire board tonight. The Lakers are giving up the most points inside the paint this season and I would surely love to take advantage of that.
Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless all take a hit in some form with Lillard back in the lineup. Hold off, until further notice.
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