Follow me on Twitter @14AdotWalsh for shitty jokes, DFS advice & retweets from beat writers
Portland Trail Blazers (-1, ML: -115) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 209.5
————–Pace> POR: 10th – PHI: 13th
OFF Efficiency> POR: 11th – PHI: 30th
DEF Efficiency> POR: 27th – PHI: 10th
Spread Notes:
-Blazers are 2-9 outright/ATS this season in the eastern/central time zones
-Sixers have won five of their last seven games, and seven of their last nine
POR:
-Ed Davis (questionable- missed last game, ankle)
Damian Lillard is on the brink of getting back to his usual self, but he’s only posted 40+ fantasy points once in the last six games. He does draw a difficult matchup against TJ McConnell who ranks in the top 10, according to Defensive RPM, amongst all point guards.
His backcourt mate, CJ McCollum, is coming off two stinkers, but he was averaging 45.6 FDP in the seven games prior to that. If you want to take a trip down #NarrativeStreet, McCollum played his college ball at nearby Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.
The best place to attack the Sixers this season has been anywhere but the backcourt. Al-Farouq Aminu draws a fantastic matchup but he hasn’t posted 25+ fantasy points in his last three games. Mason Plumlee has not met salary expectations in four of his last six games, but of course, the center position has always been the absolute best place to attack the Sixers.
Evan Turner draws a revenge game against the team that drafted him; the former number-two pick has done well lately, but there haven’t been too many performances that have wowed the public. Maurice Harkless could be an interesting GPP play here as well.
PHI:
The price tag on Joel Embiid is starting to get up there but that’s what happens when you’ve posted at least 40 fantasy points in each of the last four games. Tonight’s matchup against the Blazers is primo since they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the center position.
As for the rest of the Sixers, it’s tough to get excited about throwing your money that way. Sure, their matchup is fantastic, but the roster is basically at full health and I’m not 100% sure where the minutes will go outside of Embiid.
It was good to see TJ McConnell get his usual run of minutes, and that’s even after missing a game with Sergio Rodriguez back in the lineup. This could be a good way to get cheap exposure to a team going against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
The minutes for Robert Covington are somewhat consistent, but the production is not. Ersan Ilyasova is still getting minutes in the upper-20s, but most of his success has come when Embiid has been off the court.
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets (PK) – O/U: 216.5
—————Pace> TOR: 20th – CHA: 16th
OFF Efficiency> TOR: 2nd – CHA: 14th
DEF Efficiency> TOR: 16th – CHA: 8th
Spread Notes:
-Hornets won the first meeting 113-111
TOR:
-Patrick Patterson (doubtful- missed last four games, knee)
-Lucas Nogueira (doubtful- missed last game, concussion)
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are two peas in a pod but on a nine-game slate, we’ll have to choose between one or the other…or neither. I’m just going to leave this photo here…
Jonas Valanciunas has posted at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Charlotte is giving up the third-most fantasy points to the center position so this looks like a match made in heaven.
Jared Sullinger just basically appeared out of nowhere from the injury list to the Raptors lineup in Wednesday’s game. He only played 14 minutes, so expect him to get eased back into game-playing shape for a while before seeing significant time on the floor.
This photo (below) shows what the Raptors offense looks like without Patrick Patterson and Lucas Nogueira on the floor. Norman Powell could make his monthly appearance, but he would ONLY be playable if he gets the start. Terrence Ross would likely receive a significant increase in minutes.
CHA:
-Jeremy Lamb (questionable- missed last three games, ankle)
Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum nearly missed double-doubles against the Raptors when they played earlier this season. However, there was a major difference between the two- Kemba scored 40 points and Batum only had 18.
Bigs have been the best players to attack the Raptors with, so Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller could be interesting GPP dart tosses. Williams double-doubled in that first meeting against the Raptors this season and Zeller wasn’t far off either. Both are priced quite generously so it does become more of a calculated risk.
Milwaukee Bucks (-4, ML: -140) @ Orlando Magic – O/U: 210
————–Pace> MIL: 21st – ORL: 19th
OFF Efficiency> MIL: 9th – ORL: 27th
DEF Efficiency> MIL: 17th – ORL: 21st
Spread Notes:
-Bucks ATS: 7-12 road, 8-9 favorite, 1-1 road favorite
-Bucks ATS: 2-6 in their last eight
-Bucks have won both meetings against the Magic this season
-Magic ATS: 5-13-2 home, 15-17 underdog, 3-8 home dog
*The first time these two teams met, the totals of the respective games were 200.5 and 196.5 – all of a sudden, we get a 210 in this one? OK…
MIL:
Giannis Antetokounmpo will have a fantastic matchup against whomever the Magic will throw his way. The Greek’s first appearance in Orlando this season was a very profitable one as he finished with a triple-double, in addition to five steals and three blocks.
Jabari Parker, Melvin Brogdon and Greg Monroe are the only other targets to consider from the Bucks.
ORL:
-Evan Fournier (questionable- missed last three games, foot)
-Jodie Meeks (out- will miss 4-6 weeks, thumb)
Elfrid Payton really chumped it in his Louisiana homecoming on Wednesday, but you should be willing to forgive him if Evan Fournier is going to miss another game. Payton had exceeded salary expectations in the three games prior to last, so this could be a fantastic bounce-back spot for him. If Fournier does play, he’ll be risky coming off an injury but it is worth noting that he posted a team-high 47.7 FDP against the Bucks this season.
This could be a great spot for Serge Ibaka, who draws a matchup against Jabari (ranked 92nd out of 93 power forwards in Defensive RPM.) Ibaka has posted totals of 39.1 and 31.7 FDP already against the Bucks this season.
Nikola Vucevic has failed to meet salary expectations in his last three games, but he did post 42.7 FDP against the Bucks earlier this season.
Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans (-10, ML: -600) – O/U: 218.5
————–Pace> BKN: 1st – NO: 8th
OFF Efficiency> BKN: 28th – NO: 26th
DEF Efficiency> BKN: 28th – NO: 7th
BKN:
-Jeremy Lin (out- missed multiple games, hamstring)
The DFS Army Domination Station loves Sean Kilpatrick tonight, which is a bit surprising. I have seen optimizers spit out a player before, and it’s actually someone else of a similar profile that ends up balling outrageous. That could mean good things for Bojan Bogdanovic as well.
The price tag on Caris LeVert has climbed a bit more than what we would like on FanDuel ($4100), but on DraftKings ($3300) we can keep rolling him out without hesitation. Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson has acknowledged that he needs to get his talented rookie more minutes, and with the season lost already that could certainly happen.
It’s a rare thing to mention bench players before starters but the Nets are an unusual bunch. Brook Lopez did have eight rebounds last game by some miracle of God but don’t expect that to be a constant outcome. Trevor Booker is typically the better $/PT player and power forwards, above any other position, have given the Pelicans most the trouble this season
NO:
The Pelicans have the best matchup on the board as they take on the Nets, who run the fastest pace in the NBA and also own the third-worst defense. Unfortunately, the Pelicans run a crowded rotation, especially in their backcourt where minutes are being split between five guards. However, Tyreke Evans has emerged recently at the top of the hill with some solid performances.
This game sets up real nice for Anthony Davis, or as everyone else refers to as Mr. Glass, Mr. Glass House, Mr. Tutu-Wearing AssHole…and the list goes on and on. The Nets are getting absolutely hammered by opposing centers this season, and that’s the good news. You already know what the bad news is…
Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks (-5, ML: -205) – O/U: 204
————–Pace> CHI: 24th – ATL: 12th
OFF Efficiency> CHI: 19th – ATL: 23rd
DEF Efficiency> CHI: 13th – ATL: 5th
Spread Notes:
-Bulls ATS: 10-11 road, 12-10 underdog, 8-9 road dog
-Hawks ATS: 9-10 home, 13-17 favorite, 8-10 home favorite
CHI:
-Taj Gibson (GTD- missed last game/did practice Thursday, ankle)
Jimmy Butler has posted at least 50 fantasy points in two of his last three games, and now he gets a decent matchup against the Hawks. He could be a solid pivot off some of the higher priced options on tonight’s slate, while also providing exceptional production.
Not much else to get excited about for the Bulls in this matchup.
ATL:
-Mike Muscala (out- missed last three games, ankle)
My level of interest in Paul Millsap depended on the status of Taj Gibson, who was just ruled in for tonight. I’m sure Millsap will have a decent game, but his price tag is too high to take on some of the upper-echelon talents on tonight’s slate. Dwight Howard could also do some damage down low, but consistency and his name have not fit in the same sentence for some time now.
Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr could wind up being sneaky GPP plays tonight, given the fact that the Bulls have struggled against perimeter players since the start of the new year.
Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8, ML: -290) – O/U: 203
————–Pace> SAC: 23rd – MEM: 28th
OFF Efficiency> SAC: 18th – MEM: 24th
DEF Efficiency> SAC: 26th – MEM: 4th
Spread Notes:
-Kings ATS: 10-10 road, 13-13-1 underdog, 8-8 road dog
-Kings ATS: 3-7 in their last 10
-Grizzlies ATS: 12-10 home, 8-10 favorite, 5-6 home favorite
SAC:
-Rudy Gay (out- will miss the rest of the season, Achilles)
-Omri Casspi (out- will miss 1-2 weeks, calf)
-Ty Lawson (questionable- missed last game, ankle)
The Kings were dealt a bad hand with the season-ending injury to Rudy Gay, but it does mean that DeMarcus Cousins will get more shots than he knows what to do with them. With Gay (out), Omri Casspi (out) and Ty Lawson (questionable) off the court, Cousins has a 37.8% usage rate.
Darren Collison and Matt Barnes see the next two biggest bumps in that scenario, so both of them are in play as well. I especially like Collison in this matchup against Conley, who is not the same lock-down defender as he was in the past.
MEM:
Marc Gasol and Mike Conley should both have exceptional nights, but for tournaments, it’ll be tough to trust them at their steep price tags in a game with a slow pace. Zach Randolph, JaMychal Green and James Ennis could be interesting GPP tournament darts.
Golden State Warriors (-4.5, ML: -205) @ Houston Rockets – O/U: 239
————–Pace> GS: 2nd – HOU: 4th
OFF Efficiency> GS: 1st – HOU: 3rd
DEF Efficiency> GS: 1st – HOU: 14th
Spread Notes:
-Warriors ATS: 7-11-1 road, 19-22-1 favorite, 7-11-1 road favorite
-Rockets ATS: 11-10 home, 7-2 underdog, 0-1 home dog
GS:
-David West (out- will miss at least two weeks, thumb)
Kevin Durant is the most consistent of all Warriors, and in a game with a 239 total, this is probably where a lot of people will begin their roster construction. Can’t say that I blame them.
Steph Curry has eclipsed 50 fantasy points only once against the Rockets in the last three seasons, and a lot of that can be attributed to his direct matchup, one of the best defenders in the NBA.
Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have much better matchups and are cheaper than the two-time reigning MVP, so that could alleviate some money from your salary cap while still getting exposure to the favored side in the game with the highest total.
Warriors head coach Steve Kerr indicated that Kevon Looney will see an increase in playing time with David West out, but that’s not a risk that I’m willing to take. There is probably more assuredness in minutes for Andre Iguodala, who could see more minutes in order to give Klay a break from defending Harden. Iggy has posted 20+ fantasy points in four of his last five games.
HOU:
-Ryan Anderson (questionable- missed last two games, illness)
James Harden against the magical up-tempo team of our decade…any questions?
If you can’t afford The Beard or any of the higher-priced options from this game, Patrick Beverley is a fantastic way to get yourself onto the dance floor. He’ll be needed on the floor as much as possible as the best defender that the Rockets have. You know my saying- if they are out on the court for a ton of minutes, they’ll likely fall ass backward into points.
Other than these two for the Rockets, it wouldn’t be a great outlook if it weren’t for the immense total. Ryan Anderson has been much better on the road this season, Trevor Ariza has a tough matchup against KD and then Eric Gordon’s price tag on FanDuel is only $300 less than Klay.
Montrezl Harrell has played well recently and the Rockets may need him more for smaller lineups. The return of Clint Capela does put some uncertainty on this backcourt, but they may not want to put him in that much danger in such an up-tempo pace.
Utah Jazz (-6, ML: -235) @ Dallas Mavericks – O/U: 187
————–Pace> UTA: 30th – DAL: 29th
OFF Efficiency> UTA: 10th – DAL: 25th
DEF Efficiency> UTA: 2nd – DAL: 22nd
Spread Notes:
-Mavericks on back-end of a B2B
UTA:
-Rodney Hood (out- will miss two weeks, knee)
Rudy Gobert has just missed 50 FDP in his last two games, so this could be a great way to get low-owned exposure on this dud of a contest. The Jazz should be able to feast on a tired Mavs team tonight, and Gobert would likely be there to collect all of the rebounds.
Gordon Hayward has been all over the map lately, but he hasn’t posted less than 28 fantasy points in his last five games. It’s not the greatest matchup for him, so he’s relegated to a GPP dart at best.
I don’t mind George Hill but according to the beloved DVP chart, point guards haven’t done that well against the Mavericks this season. In my opinion, a lot of that has to do with the stellar rim protection they have received this year. Regardless, Hill is a decent GPP dart just like Hayward.
DAL:
-Andrew Bogut (out- will miss extended time, hamstring)
I think the only guys to target here would be Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews and Seth Curry. It’s tough to trust older players like Deron Williams and Dirk Nowitzki on the back-end of a B2B. All in all, it’s a terrible idea to roster Mavs in this scenario against the second-best defense in the NBA.
Indiana Pacers (-2.5, ML: -145) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 220
————–Pace> IND: 9th – LAL: 6th
OFF Efficiency> IND: 16th – LAL: 20th
DEF Efficiency> IND: 18th – LAL: 30th
Spread Notes:
-Pacers ATS: 6-13 road, 10-11 favorite, 1-5 road favorite
-Lakers ATS: 10-12-1 home, 16-21 underdog, 7-8 home dog
-Lakers ATS: have not covered in five straight games
IND:
-Rodney Stuckey (out- will miss next few games, hamstring)
Paul George will probably get more ownership than usual as he takes aim against the worst defense in the league in the final game of the night. If his 30 FDP averaged over the last four games are any indication of what see tonight, it could be a decent fade.
Jeff Teague might be a better option for this game, but it will cost you slightly more. Myles Turner and Thad Young are also in play, against a Lakers team that gives up the most PPG inside the paint this season.
LAL:
-Larry Nance Jr (out- will return next week, knee)
-Luol Deng (questionable- missed two of last three games, wrist)
When someone asks who they should roster from the Lakers, I be like…
I’m running out of suggestions for this team on a nightly basis. Lakers head coach Luke Walton is essentially riding the hot hand each game and there is no way to predict who “the guy” is going to be. If anyone tells you they know, they are lying.
The DFS Army Domination Station loves Lou Williams, but that will only make sense if Luol Deng is ruled out for this one. D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle are in play, but the minutes have been quite volatile lately. The Lakers do seem to be willing to give more and more minutes to Brandon Ingram lately, so that could be an interesting play for GPPs.
DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP
There’s never been a better time to get registered as a DFS Army VIP! We just launched the Domination Station and it’s already spitting out winning lineups for our members. Our best in breed NFL cheat sheet includes custom DFS Army projections, Values, DVP, Targets, Workloads, Trenches Breakdowns, too much to list. The idea is to give our members the tools they need to compete with the big boys. The last, and possibly the best part of our membership, is our DFS Army Team Slack Forums. All of our pros are fixtures in there answering questions and talking strategy. We all help each other and root one another on during big sweats. We’ve built a great community and the method works. If you want to check out DFS Army VIP Membership FREE it’s simple. Register for one of the DFS Sites below with a new depositing account. I’ll hook you up with a free month of DFS Army VIP membership as well as the links to download our DFS Strategy eBooks.
FanDuel – They are running a special where you get five free entries to paid contests when you register a new depositing account via this link
DraftKings – You get a ticket ($20) to the Millionaire Maker contest when you register via our link
FantasyDraft – Get a deposit match of up to $600 when you register via our link
Fantasy Aces – Get their top new player bonus offer
Boom Fantasy – Boom has a completely new take on DFS. Instead of a salary cap, to build a team. They have contests where they throw questions at you during the games. Who will score the next TD? What team? Which QB will throw for the most yards? They issue different point totals based on which player or answer you chose. The game-play is designed for casual players. In my case, as a Bucs fan, it matched me up with an opponent based in Dallas and asked questions based on the Bucs/Cowboys game. I tried it out and it was easy to play. We set up a deal with them where new users via our link, that deposit $50 or more, get a deposit match as well as $10 in Boom Cash which can be used immediately to enter paid contests.
Remember to email Kevin at [email protected] to get your eBooks and a free month of DFS Army VIP membership when you register a new depositing account via the links above!