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Toronto Raptors (-11, ML: -800) @ Brooklyn Nets – O/U: 227.5
—————-Pace> TOR: 19th – BKN: 1st
OFF Efficiency> TOR: 1st – BKN: 28th
DEF Efficiency> TOR: 16th – BKN: 28th
Spread Notes:
-Raptors ATS: 12-7 away, 19-10 favorite, 6-5 road favorite
-Raptors have covered three straight games
-Nets ATS: 10-11 home, 18-18-2 underdog, 10-9 home dog
-Nets ATS: 1-8 in their last nine games
TOR:
-Patrick Patterson (questionable- missed last two games, knee)
Kyle Lowry has been excellent this season, but he hasn’t reached salary expectations in his last four games. However, tonight’s matchup against the Nets is one of the best on the board and that could get him back on track. Lowry just posted 41.2 FDP against this same Nets team on Friday, and it could’ve been more if the game was competitive at the end.
DeMar DeRozan has a big difference of $8500 DK/$9400 FD price tags between the two sites, but it seems more advantageous to play him on DraftKings. However, you could do the unthinkable (which I do not recommend) and fade The Beard hoping that DRZ gets something remotely close to him.
Jonas Valanciunas has answered the critical words of his coach and reached value in three-straight games now. Tonight’s matchup is primo and opposing starting centers have been scoring an average of 9.03 FDP/8.56 DKP above salary expectations against the Nets this season. How do you not like them apples? I also don’t mind the much cheaper option at center for the Raptors, Lucas Nogueira, who just went for 29.8 FDP against the Nets on Friday.
DeMarre Carroll is still priced like someone who just dribbled a basketball for the first time. He’ll likely be a popular option tonight and his individual matchup is one of the worst defenders in the NBA. Carroll just posted 31.2 FDP against the Nets on Friday.
BKN:
-Jeremy Lin (out- missed multiple games, hamstring)
Brook Lopez comes at a much better discount on DraftKings according to his respective price tags, $6300 DK/$7000 FD. I’ll continue to say it- Brolo doesn’t grab rebounds! That continuously kills an extra 10 points off his FP total at the end of the night, and I want absolutely no part of that.
The one guy on the Nets that collects all those rebounds is Trevor Booker, and I do have some interest in him tonight. Booker has posted 30+ FPs in two of the last three games, and in three of the last five. We have seen the Nets play well as home dogs of 10+ before, so I do think they’ll do well enough for Booker to hit 5x value in this game.
Bojan Bogdanovic also has some noticeable price tag differences of $4900 DK/$4200 FD, so FanDuel is where I have much more interest. His direct matchup tonight is much better on paper and, if the Nets do end up keeping this game close, Bogey will have a hand in it.
Caris Levert is a star in the making, but I like him on DraftKings a lot more where you need extreme salary relief. He did have a terrible outing against the Raptors on Friday, but I’d be willing to forgive him since he’s performed admirably over the last 10 games. Be careful with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson tonight; the only reason he got more usage last game was because BroLo was out.
Houston Rockets (-8, ML: -315) @ Miami Heat – O/U: 220
—————–Pace> HOU: 4th – MIA: 22nd
OFF Efficiency> HOU: 3rd – MIA: 29th
DEF Efficiency> HOU: 17th – MIA: 12th
Spread Notes:
-Rockets ATS: 17-6 away, 20-14 favorite, 10-5 road favorite
-Heat ATS: 7-11 home, 16-18 underdog, 4-8 home dog
-Heat ATS: 3-7 in their last 10 games
HOU:
-Ryan Anderson (doubtful- illness)
-Clint Capela (will return tonight after missing several games, leg)
James Harden will be the top player on tonight’s slate, mark it down. If there is a knock on Harden tonight, it’s that he averages three more FPs per game at home than on the road- but that’s still 57.1 DKP/52.3 FDP per game.
If Ryan Anderson is out tonight, then a lot of three-point attempts will be up for grabs. This is where we look to Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon in that regard. I also don’t mind Patrick Beverley for some extra offense, and then (and then!) a minimum-priced Sam Dekker could also be in play.
Clint Capela should get the start tonight for the Rockets after a long time away from the game. I would recommend taking a wait-and-see approach to this situation since Montrezl Harrell and Nene Hilario are still in the mix.
MIA:
-Josh Richardson (out- will miss two weeks, foot)
-Willie Reed (will play- missed last game, chest)
Goran Dragic is usually a favorite play of mine in an up-tempo setting, but his individual matchup against Beverley clouds the outlook a bit. It’s not like Dragic’s $6800 DK/$6700 FD price tag is that cheap either. Tyler Johnson is only $300 cheaper than Dragic on FanDuel, but comes at a significant discount of $1200 less ($5600 DK) on DraftKings.
Hassan Whiteside hasn’t played that well lately, aside from his dominating performance at Golden State last week. However, he was coming off the orbital injury and tonight’s matchup against an undersized Rockets frontline could be a good opportunity for him to get back on the good foot.
James Johnson is still getting significant minutes for the Heat, and he damn well should be. JJ’s $6100 DK/$5900 price tag won’t necessarily save you ALL the money but he will still offer solid production, and could have massive upside in an up-tempo game.
Dion Waiters is interesting in the up-tempo setting as well, especially since he’ll draw the Harden defensive experience; we all know what that is like, so Waiters priced at $5300 DK/$5200 FD playing 30+ minutes, without Josh Richardson in the lineup, becomes a lot more appealing.
Dallas Mavericks @ Chicago Bulls (-6, ML: -240) – O/U: 196.5
—————Pace> DAL: 29th – CHI: 24th
OFF Efficiency> DAL: 25th – CHI: 19th
DEF Efficiency> DAL: 22nd – CHI: 10th
Spread Notes:
-Mavericks ATS: 9-11 away, 15-20 underdog, 9-11 road dog
-Bulls ATS: 11-10 home, 9-11 favorite, 7-9 home favorite
-Bulls ATS: 6-2 in their last eight
DAL:
-Andrew Bogut (out- will miss extended time, hamstring)
Even though this game has the lowest total of the night, I don’t mind the Mavericks as only five-point underdogs- this number seems a bit too low and we have seen shitty teams walk right into the United Center and win outright this season.
I’ll mention it every time the Bulls play, but they have absolutely sucked at defending point guards since MCW has taken over the starting job. Deron Williams is next in line for a productive night, but he is priced a bit higher than D’Angelo Russell with the nuts matchup of the night; that basically reserves D-Will for GPP duties only.
Over the last three games, Dirk Nowitzki has channeled his inner 2011 NBA Playoffs self and averaged nearly 33 FDP in that span. OK, it’s not 2011 NBA Playoffs-like, but it’s still a lot for a guy that had seemingly fallen off the face of the basketball universe. The Mavs have been playing him at center recently and that’s given him a mismatch against most the lanky bastards he goes up against on a nightly basis.
While Dirka Dirka has been on this successful run, Harrison Barnes has seen a few more duds than we’d like. Barnes still has a $6400 DK/$6800 FD price tag makes you cringe a bit, and his matchup against either Butler or Gibson is not one that is easy. Wesley Matthews has seemingly got back on the good foot in his last two games, posting totals of 28.5 and 29.9 FDP. However, there is a chance that he could draw Butler on the defensive end for some of this game…and that would suck.
CHI:
-Nikola Mirotic (will play- missed last four games, illness)
I’m not too enthralled with many Bulls tonight, but it’s tough to turn Jimmy Butler away. He came off of that illness on Saturday in a big way for 55.6 FDP and then fell victim to the Doug McDermott show the next night. Butler had a massive game against the Mavs earlier this season, but the Bulls were missing some key players in that one.
I really like Dwayne Wade for this matchup, but his $6500 DK/$7000 FD price tag could be a problem on a night like this with other studs on the slate. However, D-Wade is coming off a night of rest so he should be fully charged for this one.
Robin Lopez has exceeded salary expectations in his last four games. Tonight’s matchup against the Mavs puts him in perfect position to make this five in a row. Without Andrew Bogut in the Mavs lineup, they really don’t have any solid rim protection.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs (-11, ML: -750) – O/U: 202.5
—————Pace> MIN: 25th – SA: 27th
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 12th – SA: 4th
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 23rd – SA: 3rd
Spread Notes:
-Timberwolves ATS: 6-13 away, 11-14 underdog, 5-8 road dog
-Timberwolves ATS: 4-1 in their last five games
-Spurs ATS: 11-8 home, 21-16-1 favorite, 11-8 home favorite
-Spurs ATS: 7-3 in their last 10 games
MIN:
It’s a tough spot for the T-Wolves (as 12-point underdogs) in this game but, surprisingly, that’s when Zach LaVine has been at his best- 40.8 FDP against the Jazz, 39.4 against the Raptors, etc. This could be a calculated GPP dart to put you ahead of the crowd.
Gorgui Dieng also falls into the same category as LaVine. It’s a common mistake that most fly-by NBA fans make, in thinking that Karl-Anthony Towns is actually the one playing the center position (because it says so on FanDuel). But it’s actually Dieng that plays center, and that gives him a more advantageous matchup against Pau Pau. It’s tough to feel optimistic about this team as such a heavy underdog, but Dieng could pay off his generous $5200 DK/$5100 FD price tag.
Ricky Rubio is the same price tonight as D’Angelo Russell of the Lakers. Russell goes against the Nuggets in a significantly faster up-tempo game and Rubio goes against the Spurs. Mic drop.
Andrew Wiggins has to deal with Kawhi, and yeah…no.
SA:
This should be an easy win for the Spurs tonight, but we’ve seen their star players fall well below salary expectations as a large favorite before. Kawhi Leonard has a fantastic matchup, whether he draws LaVine or Wiggins, and this could be a yuuuuuuge reason why this game does end up getting out of hand. I do love this matchup for Kawhi, but the 12-point spread seems like the massive upside could be clipped off. You have to remember, Kawhi rarely flashes that massive upside anyway.
Something doesn’t seem right with LaMarcus Aldridge at the moment. Ever since resting that game against the Bucks last week, he’s only posted 40.6 FDP in two games combined. However, we’ve seen plenty of players fatigued or sick lately, so he may be worth a GPP dart if everything is out of his system.
Pau Gasol has posted decent numbers of late, but with Valanciunas in a primo matchup for cheaper on the slate, I’m not sure why you would go this route.
Tony Parker has been fantastic in eight of his last 10 games, reaching or being right around 5x value in that span. Tonight’s matchup isn’t tops on the board, but it is worth a look for salary savings.
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers (-1, ML: -120) – O/U: 227
————–Pace> DEN: 5th – LAL: 6th
OFF Efficiency> DEN: 11th – LAL: 20th
DEF Efficiency> DEN: 29th – LAL: 30th
Spread Notes:
-Nuggets ATS: 10-9 away, 11-10 underdog, 8-6 road dog
-Nuggets ATS: 3-7 in their last 10 games (covered last two)
-Lakers ATS: 10-11-1 home, 3-5-1 favorite, 3-4-1 home favorite
-Lakers ATS: 3-7 in their last 10 games (have not last four)
DEN:
-Gary Harris (out- missed two of last three games, ankle)
-Darrell Arthur (out- missed last two games, knee)
Nikola Jokic has a fantastic matchup against this weak Lakers frontline. His price tag is starting to get up there now, so there could be some legit question as to whether or not you put him in your lineup tonight, especially on the back-end of a B2B.
Will Barton has a big difference on his $5600 DK/$4800 FD price tags tonight, as does Wilson Chandler at $6700 DK/$5800 FD. Both guys are viable options tonight will Gary Harris out of the lineup, but we could even see Jameer Nelson pick up more minutes as a result. Danilo Gallinari gets some consideration as well.
LAL:
-Larry Nance Jr (out- missed multiple games, knee)
-Jordan Clarkson (questionable- ankle)
-Tarik Black (questionable- ankle)
D’Angelo Russell has a major difference in his respective $7000 DK/$6000 FD price tags, so the option to play him in this advantageous matchup is a no-brainer. The Lakers’ second-year point guard is at the top of his game (aside from two blowout losses against the Clippers and Spurs), consistently posting FDP totals in the 30s. The Nuggets are also allowing about 6.4 fantasy points above expectations to point guards this season.
Julius Randle also has a major difference in his respective $7200 DK/$6200 FD price tags and, just like Russell, he’s a much more fantastic bargain on FanDuel. Randle has struggled a bit of late, but he finds himself in a great up-tempo matchup against the Nuggets who have given up fantasy points to all positions this season.
If Jordan Clarkson is out tonight, Lou Williams will get a significant bump. Sweet Lou is coming off his best performance in a while, and a big reason for that came at the expense of Clarkson’s injury in that game. Fight fire…with fire!