Welcome to the world’s fastest breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Target NHL Oh-fenses
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. Hockey is a highly volatile DFS sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. (For example, just last night I hit most of my offensive teams, but didn’t have the correct lines that did the damage and failed to cash. Missed quite terribly honestly. But, the night before I missed on the goalie and still swept the table hitting my quintuples, triples, and 5050s with ease.)
Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Here are your best offenses to target today based on Corsi (For and Allowed), Scoring Chances (For and Allowed), Fantasy Points Scored (For and Allowed) over both a 4 week and 1 week period. Looking at today’s matchups within these team stats tells us which offenses are facing poor defenses, who likes to shoot, who allows shots, and which team is hot facing a team in the gutter. Add all that together and you get some neat areas on which to focus your attention.
Elite Options
1- NY Islanders – The Isles have some punch this year. They happen to host a team in Dallas that loves to play at a breakneck speed when allowed. Dallas allows 4th most shot attempts, 9th most scoring chances, 6th most fantasy points over last 4 weeks, and 6th most fpts over the past 7 days. Umm….yes please. When a top 10 offense in those categories (Isles) meets a defense (Stars) that thinks defense is a four-letter word, you roster up! (TIP: It’s up to you to look at the player production and find which players are producing, but the top 2 lines are in play here and some of the third.)
2- Dallas Stars – Just because a team is offering a lot of points doesn’t mean they don’t score them for themselves, too. DAL has been hot the past couple games and is worthy of strong consideration, especially when their opponent (NYI) allows nearly the same numbers of shots, scoring chances, and fantasy points as Dallas does. This game could be up and down, back and forth, shot after shot after shot. Hopefully, we get the goals to match from this one. I have no issues loading up both sides of this contest.
3- Toronto Maple Leafs – The Leafs are another team that skates and shoots a ton but allows a ton on the back end. The Rangers are top 10 in allowing all previously mentioned categories on the season, and they are top 3 in fpts allowed over the 4 week and 1 week periods I’m watching. This is another no-brainer game that should yield goodness. TOR gets the slight edge over NYR as my 3rd elite team being at home.
Secondary Options
4- NY Rangers – But, the Rangers are not far behind. This game looks just like the first two mentioned. Up and down, back and forth, shot after shot after shot. The Rangers have the league’s highest goals per game scored on the year and have scored the most fpts over the last month and the 2nd most across last week. You might not need to look further than these four teams tonight.
5- Washington Captials – But, just in case you need that 5th team to make you feel like you got your money’s worth, I give you the Capitals. They do a ton of scoring in their own right, and STL has currently had it’s issues at home. STL gave up the 9th most fpts to opponents over the last 4 weeks. They have righted the ship a little of late, but that was out west on the road. They came back home this week and proceeded to lay another egg. Something mental is going on in The Lou right now and the Blues can be targeted until further notice most nights.
Two Pads Stacked
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
Primary Option
John Gibson – Let’s just start with the Vegas line on this game. -270 in favor of the Ducks as of right now. Ummm…enough said. Gibson should easily grab the win here behind a stout Anaheim defense that literally gives up the fewest fpts to opponents over the 4 week and 1 week periods. Chalk him in and move along. Nothing else to see here.
Secondary Options
Devan Dubnyk – If you must buck the obvious, Dubnyk shit the bed on us last time out. He doesn’t make a habit of it and the Coyotes suck, especially on the road. He’s a fine option. He’s just not as strong as a nearly 3:1 favorite.
Sergei Bobrovsky – The Bob has been playing fairly well over the past month or so. He’s another fine choice. But, I won’t be using him. I just wanted to mention his home record is pretty stellar. The main concern is the Ottawa Senators who got a little hot last week and rolled up my Blues in their last game on the road. I’m not nearly as confident in Bob as I am the others.
Why No NHL Player Picks?
Well, because that takes a ton of time. This is a breakaway not some reverse rollerskate on disco night. Target the offenses I singled out for you and nail your goalie. Spread the wealth across the scoring lines for your skaters. If you want tips there, read my Cash Game Strategies piece because it lays out how to cast a wide net for NHL vs tighter stacking of full lines in GPPs.
But wait, there’s more…
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Filling in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
DraftKings 1
DraftKings 2
FanDuel 1
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut