Welcome to the world’s fastest breakdown in DFS NHL! Much like my favorite player of all time, Pavel Bure on a breakaway, this is going to hit you fast and hard so you can go about your day. You can find me in our VIP Slack Forums and on Twitter under the handle @ChoppoDong. Let’s fire up some conversation!
I am going to assume you know the basics of DFS like cash games, stacking, and short vs full slates. If not, look under our strategy tabs at dfsarmy.com. We have plenty of articles describing these terms designed to bring you up to speed quickly.
Contests to Attack
I believe the fastest way to get up and running is to practice in 5050s and HTHs. Hockey is a highly volatile DFS sport where you can go on long winning and losing streaks at the drop of a hat….errr puck. We want some upside for those nights we hit some great scores, but we want most of our money (about 90%) in the safer cash-type games like 5050s and triple ups since we will hit these most often. Bankroll management is key and we want to stick to areas we can win most often in the beginning. If I planned to invest $10 per night, I’d have at least $8 spread out in HTHs or 5050s, and triple ups. As you gain experience, you will adjust your contest selection to your own style. For now, start at a 90:10 cash to GPP ratio.
Oh-fenses to Target
1- MTL – All indicators point to the Habs having a solid night. They area among league leaders in attempted shots (3rd), SOG, and scoring chances (4th). It hasn’t translated into fantasy production across the board lately, but they are at home and face a PIT squad that plays defense about like James Harden. The Penguins allow shots (9th), allow scoring chances (4th), and allow fantasy points over both 4 week and 1 week periods (ummm, 1st and 1st). Grab the premium talent here, or the value for savings, a lot of players should see good numbers per dollar tonight.
2- PIT – The Pens carry the flip side of this coin, but I’m not as excited to take them on the road due to their notable splits. However, I don’t see other offenses I like a lot better, so I kind of have to toss this juggernaut of an offense in as the 2nd pick tonight and hope they go off. When it comes to Corsi and Scoring Chances across the season, PIT is elite. They generate offense! They also rank 5th and 8th respectively when it comes to turning that activity into fantasy production across 4 week and 1 week time frames. MTL has been friendly lately to opposing teams, so this one sets up as a shootout tonight since these two play each other. Don’t let another Dallas/NYR or WSH/PIT game break out on you when you only have one side of it. Take a couple to a few skaters from both sides of this one, but remember the home team usually gets the best of the individual matchups due to holding the last line change.
3- WPG – The Jets draw the 3rd spot tonight largely due to Vegas and season-long numbers. Over the larger sample, WPG is kind of middle-of-the-road offensively, but the Coyotes are brutal when it comes to giving up shots and quality chances on their own net. ARI doesn’t travel well, and the Jets own the last 10 meetings by a record of 7-3. The line is settling back a little, but a -180 is nothing to sneeze at. WPG should win this game and score a few goals in doing so. However, if you are contrarian, I can see a scenario where ARI takes advantage of this recent 4 gm skid the Jets are in the middle of and do some damage of their own here. If playing GPPs, it might not be a bad spot to take a shot with a line stack for lower ownership….just sayin.
Other acceptable choices
Not a lot here. LA is ok. BOS typically shoots a lot, but hasn’t been scoring a ton lately. EDM looks ok on paper for some one-offs, and DET is another contrarian option for GPPs. The Red Wings are actually slightly above average in terms of pure fpts scored over an extended period now. Another scenario that wouldn’t surprise me, especially since they are the home team tonight (to counter the counter, BOS is very good on the road which is why this is so contrarian).
Between the Pipes
Goalies are premium sources of our production, and they are usually consistent if we don’t get too cute. Fight the urge to be contrarian and just pay up. You can differentiate elsewhere in NHL easily enough. Focus on heavy Vegas favorites and stay near the top of the salary range. Our target score on DraftKings is 30 points. Goalies earn 3 points for a victory alone. It’s much like the starting pitcher in baseball. Pick a goalie in line for the win and you are set up to cash that night more often than not.
1- This might sound dumb as hell, but Vegas loves Ondrej Pavelec tonight. Well, Vegas loves Winnipeg to win the game is more accurate. This could be a rare chance to pick up a win and roster a cheap/value goalie in cash. $6800 on DK for a goalie is pretty darned cheap. WPG is desperate in goal and just called him back to help. Hellebuyck and Hutchinson suck pretty hard and Pavelec is above .500 (8-7-2) in the AHL with a .917 SV%. This is another thing to think about if you trust Vegas……or if you are more contrarian and want to attack the “3rd stringer” fresh off a call up. Hint: If you take ARI skaters, you might want to take Mike Smith because if your skaters rock, Smith likely gets the win too.
2- Your other, and possibly safer, option is Cam Talbot in EDM. The Panthers are on road B2B games and the Oilers are a bit hot currently. Last 10 meetings also show dominating ownership by EDM with the 7-3 advantage over the Panthers when playing each other. We pay up for goalies, but with a nearly -200 favorite for so much less in salary, Talbot is actually my secondary choice.
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Hat Trick Studs
Everyone loves throwing their hat on the ice, especially after rostering that stud for DFS. The goal scorers push you over the edge in tourneys when you find a few of them on the same night. These guys are set up tonight to test their ceilings…
1- Sidney Crosby is averaging more than a point per game (5 G, 9 A) over his last 10 and fires quite a few shots on goal. Featured on the top line and the PP1, he’s your elite C tonight. And, with the value at goalie, you can grab him easily if you choose to tonight.
2- Max Pacioretty fires shots on goal even more often than Sid the Kid above. He might be a little more up and down lately in scoring, but his shots create a decent floor for you. Also, when it comes to bang for your stud buck, he’s priced substantially less than Sid lending to a more balanced lineup construction or a stack of the MTL top line in the best spot of the night.
3- Brent Burns isn’t in the best spot, but he’s the best defenseman on the slate every time he laces up. This dude is expensive, but steadier than even Crosby most nights. He has scored 6+ fpts in five of his last six and 7+ in four of those five. When you have money to burn, Burns is never a bad way to go if you want to see how flammable salary money can be in a good way.
Salary Saver Skaters
You will need one or two of these guys if you listened to my advice and paid up at goalie. Spending $9000 on FanDuel for a goalie leaves you an average of $5750 per player the rest of the way. Spending $8000 on DraftKings leaves you $5250 on average. If you want some skating talent, you will need a couple of guys well under these average salaries.
1- Jacob Trouba serves on the 2nd pairing and PP2, but has really been bringing cheap value lately. He finds himself in a good spot tonight and is definitely value priced on both sites today. 26 shots and 13 blocked shots create a nice floor for the price.
2- Nathan Beaulieu is another defenseman, but he might be my favorite value play in all of NHL DFS at the moment. Another serving on the 2nd pair and 2nd PP unit, we don’t care in that game tonight. We want that cheap price and the nearly 1:1 fpt to salary ratio on DK across the past 10 games.
3- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the 2nd line center and runs on the PP2 for the Oilers tonight. Averaging 3 SOG per game gives a little bang for the buck, but points in 3 of his last 4 games suggest he might be running a little hot and currently underpriced for his production. EDM might not be our best game to target, but he’s a nice one-off that affords you the bigger guns in the bigger games.
4- Carl Hagelin has been splitting time with the Malkin line and the Kessel line almost equally lately, which might have some effect on his recent uptick in production despite his absence on either PP unit. Should this continue, his price brings about more production than cost until either his price adjusts or his time with Malkin regresses.
Stacks of/for Cash
If you want to understand better why I stack the way I do, read my piece on Cash Game Strategy. Long story short, we are casting a wider net here so we get a piece of what happens in the games we like no matter where it comes from. If we want to stack an entire line, we should be playing GPPs.
1- Malkin/Schultz – With the Letang injury, Schultz becomes the top producing blue liner for the Pens despite serving on the 2nd pairing. He gets the bump to the top PP unit, however, bringing exposure to Sidney Crosby in the process.
2- Pacioretty/Galchenyuk/Radulov – With possible value at goalie tonight, you can grab the electric top line of MTL facing the Penguins (a team previously mentioned as allowing more fpts to teams across both 4 week and 1 week periods). This is definitely stacking the deck. If you want a little exposure to other lines just in case, look at dropping perhaps a Pacioretty and picking up a Beaulieu or Petry on defense.
Fill in the Blanks
Sometimes a fun and interactive way to build lineups is to do them together. Well, I can’t be right next to you when you have all those tie-breaking questions between players, but I can get you started. Have fun with these, but most of all, learn from them. Go balanced with the rest, or stack them up with another offense. The choice is ultimately yours, but these are players from our list and how they might fit into a normal lineup. If you used any of these as your foundation, give me a shout on Twitter or in Slack and let me know when you do well.
Sample 1
Sample 2
Sample 3
The Smelly Mitt
Roster up some of your own lines, and don’t be shy about rubbing that smelly mitt in my face when you do well. Hopefully, this helped direct some of your research. There will be more talk in our NHL room for our VIPs. If not a member, don’t forget how to join up above. I hope to see you inside soon! #ChoppodongOut