Rested and ready to go to go for this new week of Premier League soccer. We had a nice little break after the Festive holidays and I gotta say it was much needed! Happy New year everyone! With the new year comes new hopes and goals and even some new beginnings. Last year we took on EPL DFS with fresh eyes eager to learn. This year we attack. A couple nights ago, we released a much new and improved Team Sheet to aid us in our research, identify trends and (hopefully) improve our results as EPL DFS players. I’m really excited to see what tomorrow brings. Let’s get right to it because we have 7 games and not a lot of time. You may read some new stats and wonder what it is I am talking about. Well, if you are not a DFS Army member, you should get on that because we have a bevy of information that is just waiting to make you a better player.
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Seriously, do it! Now let’s get to it.
Gameweek 21.
Watford v Middlesbrough
Yawn! This game looks to be a snoozefest. Remember a couple weeks ago when Man U had all that possession but was having trouble breaking down their defense until late? Sure they had plenty of shots and some near misses (and a blown call by the ref on Ibra’s non-goal goal), but Boro played solid defense in that one. Every week it seems Boro is on our main slate and every week they give their opposition fits. Watford is no Man U. I like this game to go under. I am envisioning a 1-0, 1-1 type of game.
I cannot predict a Boro victory… ever. They are last in the league in shot on target accuracy and it isn’t even close. Moreover, it is looking like Gaston Ramirez will miss this match due to injury. He has a shot to play but it doesn’t look good. He has been involved in 11 goal attempts in the last 4 matches. That is 3 more attempts than Alvaro Negredo, who has been involved in 75% of the goals that Boro has scored in the last 4 matches. I think he will be missed. Play more for the defensive side of things here. Victor Valdes just got healthy after missing the last match and is expected to start. Callum Chambers is safe for cash on their back line. More of GPP pivot could be Ben Gibson. He has at least taken a shot in the last 4 matches…
On the other side, Watford has played pretty well at home, as of late, despite owning a -1 goal differential at home. They are 3-1-2 (W-D-L) in their last 6 home matches. Watford will probably own more of the possession and I see Holebas sending in cross after cross here. I don’t know how many of them will be successful, but those are points on DK. As far as goal threats for Watford, they are GPP plays as I think there are better options on this slate. Troy Deeney is in play, I suppose; but, I don’t like him to break down the Boro defense. Jordin Amrabat has 3 shots from inside the box in the last 4 matches. I suppose he is an option. He will be low owned, for sure. I kinda like Younes Kaboul, though.
Watford has only scored twice in their last 4 matches and he was involved in one of them. He was also involved in another big chance that missed and has 9 touches inside their opponent’s box in the last 4 matches. How’s that for off the beaten path. I am not sure I will touch Watford, though. Maybe I go to Holebas in cash… maybe.
Middlesbrough Footballers I like — Victor Valdes, GK; Callum Chambers, DEF
Middlesbrough GPP Plays (if you must) — Ben Gibson, DEF; Martin De Roon, MID
Watford Footballers I like — Jose Holebas, DEF
Watford GPP Plays — Jordin Amrabat, MID; Younes Kaboul, DEF
West Ham United v Crystal Palace
This one is more interesting than the last. Big news here in that Dmitri Payet wants off West Ham and was then told to stay home. He will not feature in this match which sucks because Crystal Palace is worst in the league against set pieces. A lot of the possession centers around him, too. So where do we go from here? I think set piece duties could fall to Aaron Cresswell. He has a 73% successful pass rate in the final third (over the last 4 matches) and has 12 open play crosses, behind payet’s 14. I do not like to tout Andy Carroll but without Payet, he could be called upon on a set piece target. I expect a jump in his ownership with Payet out.
If we wanted to pivot at midfielder, Manuel Lanzini has taken the 1 corner that payet didn’t take in the last 4 games. He will be sure to be low owned but he has only recorded 3 shots from outside the box (smaller chance of an expected goal) in the 167 minutes he logged in the last 4 matches. Andy Carroll has made a living being strong in the air and could see a headed goal tomorrow. The new leader on the field may have to be Michail Antonio. I think he will be the highest owned player from this match not named Christian Benteke. He will have a solid game and he does lead West Ham in goals scored.
Crystal Palace had to play their non-EPL campaigns without Christian Benteke, but they expect him to play. Last week he got tripped up by the keeper and hurt his shoulder. If he is back, he is in play. There is a way for Palace to win. If they are winning I bet Benteke will be involved. Yohan Cabaye has taken more shots in their last 4 EPL matches than Benteke. He isn’t really ever highly owned but he does possess goal upside. The only problem is he sorta kinda shares duties with Jason Puncheon. They both are available for set piece duty and play in the middle of the pitch. Puncheon has logged 23 more minutes over the last 4 matches and gets the edge in set piece duty when on the pitch. I am more a Puncheon guy, but he does not get off his own shot as much as Cabaye. Zaha is away at the African Cup of Nations, or else I would say this match sets up well for him.
West Ham Footballers I like — Michail Antonio, MID
West Ham GPP Plays — Andy Carroll, FWD; Aaron Cresswell, DEF; Manuel Lanzini, MID
Crystal Palace Footballers I like — Christian Benteke, FWD
Palace GPP Plays — Jason Puncheon, MID; Yohan Cabaye, MID
Sunderland v Stoke City
I am not sure why Stoke got the early love here. Let’s start with the basics. Over the last 4 matches, both teams have sucked defensively. Sunderland is averaging 2.25 goals conceded and Stoke is giving up 2.5. Considering that both teams have kept a clean sheet in that span, it is really exciting to think what could be. I do think there are a lot of fantasy points to be had in this game. Matches between these squads have historically gone under; but, with players gone for AFCON or injured on both sides, I think this has the potential for more. Feel free to disagree.
Sunderland goes as Jermain Defoe does. He is a big target for their offense. He has 19 touches inside the box over their last 4. Nobody else healthy is in double digits. I say healthy because Victor Anichebe has 17 but does look to be in the picture for this tilt. I think he will be moderately owned and rightfully so. So, too, will Patrick Van Aanholt. If Defoe is the target, Van Aanholt is the facilitator. He also has some goal upside with 4 shots on target in the last 4 games, 3 of which came from within the box.
Maybe Adnan Zanujaj could be a GPP punt. He recently made a call to arms and don’t you kinda have to lead the charge if you are going to do that? He will cross the ball a bit and take a shot here and there , but most of his shots come from outside of the box. Stoke doesn’t have good defense, so maybe he gets a little closer.
Stoke is a little less straightforward than Sunderland. They have plenty of guys getting into the mix in many aspects of the game. Bojan, Charlie Adam, Joe Allen, and Xherdan Shaqiri have taken at least 1 corner in the last 4 games, but only Joe Allen has played all 4 matches. Let’s see who starts this match because with big Peter Crouch standing in the box, we like the opportunity for a set piece goal here. Sunderland does not defend them well and Peter Crouch is 6’7”. No lie. He keeps scoring week in and week out, so expect some pretty solid ownership. Erik Pieters should get forward into the action and be involved all day.
Sunderland Footballers I like — Jermian Defoe, FWD; Patrick Van Aanholt, DEF
Sunderland GPP Plays — Adnan Zanujaj, MID
Stoke Footballers I like — Joe Allen, MID; Peter Crouch, FWD
Stoke GPP Plays — Charlie Adam, DEF; Erik Pieters, DEF
Swansea City v Arsenal
For swansea this should be another rough game in a very rough season. Anybody you would think about playing here is a GPP punt. I am expecting them to employ a more counter attack type game here, even though they have owned more of the possession in their last 4. I think their biggest goal threat tomorrow will be llorente. I think they are able to scrounge up a goal. I don’t see more than that, though. Their attack runs through Sigurdsson. He typically fires away from outside the box and I think they need to get in close to beat Petr Cech. I am fading Sigurdsson at home, despite touting his home/road splits a couple articles ago.
If you need to play someone from this side, then it’s the defenders for shot blocking and clearances and for maybe a long shot attempt. Angel Rangel hasn’t been afraid to shoot but he typically doesn’t start. Alfie Mawson is their best defender and he does try to get forward when he can. Anybody else can have at it. There look to be plenty of goals to go around and I do not want to chase the loan Swansea goal. I will not own a single Swansea player.
Load up your Arsenal players with confidence. There are tons in play. Sanchez. Giroud. Ozil is back. Monreal out of the back. Walcott and Coquelin are out. I will say this. If Giroud is starting up top, he is going to be a target for crosses and set pieces. I will be finding a way to get him in my lineups. Sanchez takes a lot of shots and owns a lot of possession. With how bad Swansea has been defensively (11 goals conceded in last 4 games), a crooked number is going up on the board and I believe Sanchez has something to say about that.
Ozil should resume set piece duty. He also does literally everything and is great for a cash game play. Bellerin looks to miss here with an ankle injury but could be back next week. With Arsenal being the biggest name of the 10 am matches, expect their guys to be HEAVILY owned, even though they are expensive. There are cheap guys in other games that are in better spots than the “cheap” arsenal guys.
Swansea Footballers I like — N/A
Swansea GPP Plays — Fernando Llorente, FWD; Alfie Mawson, DEF
Arsenal Footballers I love — Alexis Sanchez, FWD; Olivier Giroud, FWD
Arsenal Footballers I like — Mesut Ozil, MID; Nacho Monreal, DEF
Arsenal GPP Plays — Whoever starts at right attacking mid (not in love with the play but they will be low owned in comparison)
Burnley v Southampton
I think Southampton is getting too much love here. They can be a dominating team on paper. They send in a ton of crosses and they hold court very well and they take a ton of shots, but they don’t turn those shots into much. Now they are on the road and they don’t travel well. They have earned just 5 points (out of a possible 18) in their last 6 on the road. They also have a negative 5 goal differential. Burnley has earned 15 out of 18 points in their last 6 at home and own a positive 6 goal differential. Burnley has even given up 5 goals to southampton’s 10 in their last 4 overall. Somehow, as of writing this, southampton is favored on the road. I am not sure what the deal is there but I will gladly take advantage.
Burnley will be missing Scott Arfield. Big loss in the middle of the pitch but they have plenty else. The emergence of Andre Gray has been very timely. It seems he is taking over striker duties. Ashley Barnes is running well, too. They have been involved in 4 goals and 3 goals, respectively, in the last 4 games. Add in Stephen Ward whipping cross after cross and some solid defending and they have a great base for dealing with Southampton. We still need to see the rotation. I bet gray is starting up top and while I would hope barnes is underneath him, it could be someone else. Ward and Lowton should be locked into the fullback roles and Keane and Mee should take the centerback roles. This has been a quality back line that should provide solid value, especially for their price. They are also playing in front of the Keeper with the most saves in the premiership. He is my top option at Keeper, even with his high price tag.
Southampton knows they are spinning at the moment and they could conceivably play a more defensive match to try and get things under control. I expect them to still shoot a ton but where we could see the sacrifice is in their possession numbers. Which I think bodes well for Burnley who is 6th in the league in shot accuracy, over the last 4 games.
Southampton’s top goal threat is likely Jay Rodriguez. He can have a decent game here. I don’t know if he will score but it seems right to make his presence felt. He has had 2 goals in his last 9 shots and 7 of those have come in the box. He is the obvious choice. Nathan Redmond might get some ownership but it probably won’t be huge. He has 10 shots in the last 4 games but no goals to show for it. I want to see who starts. Ryan Bertrand has 2 shots from inside the box but he has only played 2 games in the last 4, so perhaps he has some upside if he gets the nod. On the whole, this team is not safe for cash with the way they are playing.
Burnley Footballers I like — Stephen Ward and Mathew Lowton, DEF
Burnley GPP Plays — Andre Gray and Ashley Barnes, FWD
Southampton Footballers I like — N/A
Southampton GPP Plays — Nathan Redmond, MID; Jay Rodriguez, FWD
Hull City v Bournemouth
This is my favorite game on the slate. Neither team is stout or even half decent at defense. It is probably likely to end up a 2-1 Bournemouth victory but both squads have given up 9 goals a piece in the last 4 games. Maybe this could break as a sneak
Hull is hurting for players. They lost a couple people to AFCON and Michael Dawson is hurt. I still think they have enough to give Bournemouth a run. Some people are going to have to take on a bit more though. The best place to start is with Robert Snodgrass. He will need to find a new target with Mbokani away with his national squad, but he could also end up shooting more. I will likely have some of him.
If you are playing on fanduel, I like Harry Maguire in this spot. All he does is everything and he will need to do even more. He will be solidly owned but I don’t care. He doesn’t even have to shoot the ball to make value but he has that upside, too. You can bet I will have him in some of my lineups. I won’t go all in on him because there is a lot of value at defense this week across the slate and we might be able to get someone cheaper who can match him. He is a lot more steady week to week, though.
You might say I am crazy for believing in Hull but I kinda do this week. They even picked up a couple signing who could make their debut this weekend in Oumar Niasse and Evandro Goebel. They believe, too! It’s hard to find someone past the aforementioned. Shots should be coming from the right and I am sure Bournemouth has been instructed to close down snodgrass. A pivot could come in the form of Tom Huddlestone or Jake Livermore. These are a couple of central midfielders who have some experience. Let’s wait and see who starts and where, but for now I am done with Hull. I cannot believe I just spent 2 paragraphs on them or that you just read them.
Bournemouth has the ability to score goals. They are fast and physical. That can leave openings in counter attack, though; a style that hull loves to play out of their 3-5-1-1 formation. I expect Bournemouth to perform just fine. In their last 4 matches, they lead the entire premiership in accuracy at almost 49%. That’s staggering. Their production can also come from anyone. Their midfield is steady. Junior Stanislas, Jack Wilshere, Harry Arter all pass the ball well and do well to hold possession. They are all in play in a GPP.
It looks like Fraser will be healthy in time and Ben Afobe was given the ok to play from his national team in Africa. Did not see that coming. Anywho, they really spread out the shots. The safest guy on the squad is probably Junior Stanislas and Steve Cook. If Adam Smith starts at right back, he could have a good day. So many people have started for this squad that we will need to see who they line up with but just know that I want a guy or two from this side. We will tackle this one in slack chat.
Hull City Footballers I like — Robert Snodgrass, MID
Hull GPP Plays — Jake Livermore, MID; Tom Huddlestone, MID
Bournemouth Footballers I like — Junior Stanislas, MID; Steve Cook, DEF, Charlie Daniels, DEF
Bournemouth GPP plays — Whoever else starts in attacking positions, for now, I suppose?
Leicester City v Chelsea
This is the late game so you fanduelers play smart.
Leicester is getting Jamie Vardy back off suspension but they lost a host of players to AFCON. I wonder if they spread out the crossers by putting Marc Albrighton on the right side and leave Fuchs to handle the left. There is no Mahrez so Albrighton will shoulder quite a load. We will see.
Ahmed Musa could start, as he did well in the FA cup match. Y’all on DK can play around with that if you want. I think Vardy is the best chance for a goal for Leicester with Musa as a nice pivot. On paper it doesn’t look to be a good idea but Chelsea is the only squad of the top 6 who doesn’t dominate possession. That gives them a shot. Schmeichel could have a good day in net, but he is a GPP play. Chelsea hasn’t been blowing teams out like they should.
I waited for Chelsea to drop this tweet I read. I’ll paraphrase. An elite striker who fails to score in a match scored in their next one 69.3% of the time. Chelsea was shutout last week vs Tottenham. I will take those odds. I actually think there is only 1 player with better odds to score this week. I like Eden Hazard, as well. Pedro seems to be playing better. There are options. Courtois in net is a solid option. Marcos Alonso doesn’t look to play and Victor Moses is trying to get healthy. He has a better shot to play than Alonso.
Nathan Ake was recalled to Chelsea. If you are on DK, you could wait and see on him but he should not be played on FD. Azpilicueta could be a solid option if you want to hold a player back for the hammer game. Go with solid guys who play every week. Chelsea has a pretty safe rotation but the addition of Ake messes things up. I would lean towards Courtois, Costa, Hazard. Ownership levels depress for even the chalkiest of players on FD since people are scared not knowing the confirmed lineup.
UPDATE: Diego Costa is out! He fought with his manager and got put in timeout. We don’t know who is starting in his place yet. For DK players who can late swap, Pedro can make a couple things happen. I want to see Michy Batshuayi out there, though. He shined in his FA cup match and would open things up a bit price-wise. Bold strategy, though.
Leicester Footballers I like — Marc Albrighton, MID; Christian Fuchs, DEF
Leicester GPP Plays — Jamie Vardy, FWD; Kasper Schmeichel, GK
Chelsea Footballers I like — Eden Hazard, MID; Courtois, GK
Chelsea GPP Plays — Azpilicueta, DEF
Goalkeepers
Keepers I like —
- Heaton
- Valdes
- Courtois
- Cech
GPP Plays —
- Whoever starts for Crystal Palace
- Schmeichel
- Mannone
So that’s about it for the week 21 write-up. A note on FD, There are some qualifiers that are offering 25 tickets to the mega sweeper at the end of the month for a dollar. I will put a few tickets in there. 25 out of 117. I like those odds.