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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Charlotte Hornets (-5.5, ML: -260) – O/U: 206.5
————Pace> MIN: 20th – CHA: 14th
OFF Efficiency> MIN: 11th – CHA: 12th
DEF Efficiency> MIN: 23rd – CHA: 6th
Line Analysis:
Minnesota has struggled mightily this season, but they have been pretty solid on the back-end of B2Bs scoring an average of just under 117 points in those three games. Charlotte gets it done on the defensive end, hence the sixth-best defensive rating in the NBA. Should be a fun mix of oil and water but, even with that T-Wolves stat, I think we’ll see a close/low-scoring game.
MIN:
This does not appear to be a good spot for the T-Wolves, but Zach LaVine has been the most consistent of the bunch lately, reaching 5x value at his current price in four of the last five games.
Everyone else from the T-Wolves is too volatile to take a chance on.
CHA:
Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are interesting for the Hornets, but both guys aren’t exactly desirable in terms of salary. I guess I don’t mind going there for differentiation purposes in GPPs if it had to be done.
Frank Kaminsky has dropped stinky duds in his last two games; I’ll wait and see when he comes back around again.
Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors (-9, ML: -480) – O/U: 207
————Pace> ATL: 6th – TOR: 22nd
OFF Efficiency> ATL: 25th – TOR: 2nd
DEF Efficiency> ATL: 2nd – TOR: 17th
Line Analysis:
The Hawks are struggling in a big way right now, losing eight of their last nine games. Vegas has no confidence in them in this matchup with the Raptors and I can’t say I’d disagree.
It’s a different story with the Raptors, as they have won their last five games by an average of just under 19 points- that is flat out ridiculous.
ATL: Paul Millsap (out)
With Millsap out, give major bumps to Dwight Howard and Dennis Schroder. Given the fact that they are such heavy underdogs, I would say that Schroder is the only guy I would seriously consider. I don’t think any told Howard the Hawks were playing last night; he was absolutely dreadful in a matchup that he should have crushed.
Kent Bazemore should get more usage with Millsap out, but he’ll draw a difficult matchup here with the Raptors’ best defender back in the lineup.
TOR:
It’s a broken record when analyzing the Raptors, but we’ll always go back to the well with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Not much to say about them that you don’t already know; they’re good at basketball and it’s always just a matter of whether or not you can fit their salaries in.
Do not go back to the well with Norman Powell. When DeMarre Carroll is in the lineup, Powell becomes as much of a profitable fantasy player as the guy who dries up the wet spots on the court. Speaking of Carroll, there is a bit of a narrative here since he used to play for the Hawks. He’s had some solid games lately, so I don’t mind him at all as a small forward punt, and there’s no problem with fatigue since he sat out to rest yesterday.
Boston Celtics (-9.5, ML: -500) @ Philadelphia 76ers – O/U: 205
————Pace> BOS: 19th – PHI: 12th
OFF Efficiency> BOS: 9th – PHI: 29th
DEF Efficiency> BOS: 18th – PHI: 22nd
Line Analysis:
It is interesting to note that both teams are on the back-end of a back-to-back, but the Sixers didn’t have to travel…that is a MAJOR advantage. Most teams that do the weekend back-to-back set always do one at home and one on the road. Come to think of it, I don’t think the Sixers have had a major advantage since the Allen Iverson era.
BOS:
Lots of goodness for Boston in this scenario tonight, and it all might go overlooked with fantasy goldmines on the slate. Most of their starting lineup is in play here but, if there’s a downside, it’s that they all kind of eat into each other’s ceiling. I could certainly make the case for any of their guys, but Jae Crowder and Al Horford are the two guys I’d rank above the rest; they won’t break your bank and can actually get into that 6x or 7x value plateau.
PHI: Robert Covington (doubtful)
Ersan Ilyasova or Dario Saric are the guys I’ll be interested in here. They are incredibly cheap for this matchup and both see a big boost in usage when Joel Embiid isn’t playing. Ilyasova played 17 minutes last night and Saric saw 16, which means Brett Brown could’ve been keeping them fresh for this game. If Covington is out, either guy could probably see more minutes at the three.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies (PK) – O/U: 203
————Pace> LAL: 4th – MEM: 27th
OFF Efficiency> LAL: 13th – MEM: 27th
DEF Efficiency> LAL: 28th – MEM: 7th
Line Analysis:
The line has moved to -2.5 in favor of the Grizzlies, and a lot of that is because of the brutal schedule the Lakers have had recently. This is one of the games that Cheri Mah listed as one you can guarantee a loss. But here’s the thing, I’m smart as fuck. In yesterday’s article, I mentioned that the Lakers might mail in the game against the Raptors (who aren’t in the same conference as them) and then really go for it against the Grizzlies. Well, one part of that prediction has held up so far. Come on, Memphis…let’s make me a certified genius!
LAL:
Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson will have a lot of heavy lifting to do tonight. Good thing neither of them showed up in Toronto last night and they won’t be as ruined for this one. I usually like Sweet Lou more between these two, but I fear that he’ll get an up-close view of the Tony Allen defensive extravaganza.
Julius Randle hasn’t looked 100% lately but the Lakers don’t have much of a choice to lean on him. Luke Walton could have limited his minutes last night to keep him fresh for tonight, just like he did earlier this week when they had another B2B. However, this will be the Lakers’ fourth game in five days and I’m not sure how effective he’ll be tonight. Larry Nance Jr could be the better play if we get any news on Randle prior to tip-off.
Brandon Ingram has been thrust into more minutes lately, but as a rookie playing in a huge chunk of games in a short time-frame, he is going to struggle tonight. There are so many options at the small forward position that you don’t need to take this risk.
MEM:
The Lakers give up the most PPG inside the paint this season, so Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green could be in line for a massive game. With Mike Conley and Zach Randolph out of the lineup once again, there’s no doubt that Gasol and Green will set up a picnic blanket in the paint and feast all night.
Andrew Harrison is a guy that should be highly-owned tonight; he’s doing a great job running the point for the Grizz and this is a very favorable matchup in front of him . The Lakers have a difficult set of circumstances with tonight’s game and an injury-ridden roster, so defense probably won’t be a big priority for them.
Chicago Bulls (-5.5) @ Dallas Mavericks – O/U: 189
————Pace> CHI: 21st – DAL: 29th
OFF Efficiency> CHI: 10th – DAL: 28th
DEF Efficiency> CHI: 8th – DAL: 15th
Line Analysis:
CHI: Dwayne Wade (out)
The Bulls will be without Dwayne Wade tonight and that means Rajon Rondo and Jimmy Butler will get an increase of usage and ownership percentage. This game does have the lowest total on the slate, so you might want to temper your expectations on an all-out Bulls stack.
I don’t mind Taj Gibson or Robin Lopez, but I think we’re chasing points with these two guys. If this wasn’t a B2B/road game combination I would have more optimism. A better $/pt option would be Nikola Mirotic, who sees a lot more time when D-Wade is out.
DAL: Seth Curry, Dirk Nowitzki (out)
The team with the second-slowest pace/third-worst offensive efficiency rating playing in a game with the lowest total on the slate isn’t a ringing endorsement, but the Mavs do have some decent value plays. Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews and Andrew Bogut will be in the starting lineup and, while they don’t flash much upside, the $/PT number is fairly decent. Dwight Powell may be there as well, but I don’t like him in that matchup with Taj Gibson.
Harrison Barnes should draw Butler on the defensive end, and I am OK with letting someone else trying to make money off that matchup.
Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz (-5.5, ML: -260) – O/U: 199
————Pace> DEN: 5th – UTA: 30th
OFF Efficiency> DEN: 20th – UTA: 8th
DEF Efficiency> DEN: 24th – UTA: 3rd
Line Analysis:
The Nuggets are coming off an embarrassing performance last night and today’s reward is a meeting with the third-best defense in the NBA. Congratulations. Vegas thinks this will be a close game, given the marginal spread and money line. I tend to agree, with all the injuries the Jazz are dealing with and you have to think the Nuggets will play some inspired ball after coming out so flat last night.
DEN: Nikola Jokic (out)
The Nuggets wasted no time getting Will Barton acclimated back into the lineup, giving him 33 minutes of time on the court last night. I’ll never understand Mike Malone, and I’m not sure anyone will. Barton, Danilo Gallinari and Darrell Arthur have all been dealing with injuries, but all three are listed as probable for tonight’s game. Excellent, more players in an already chaotic rotation…
Nikola Jokic is out tonight, so that will give more minutes to Kenneth Faried, Jusuf Nurkic and maybe even Arthur. I’m not particularly thrilled about anyone in this group, but if I did play anyone it would be Faried.
Wilson Chandler is a beast, and I never thought those words would be typed by my fingers. He’s struggled in two recent games against the Jazz but, given all their injuries, I don’t mind him tonight…he’s just not my first choice.
UTA: George Hill (out), Rodney Hood (game-time decision)
We already saw how amazing Gordon Hayward was in a similar situation last game with George Hill out, but the status of Rodney Hood matters here. Hood fully participated in the shootaround (that’s usually a good sign he’ll play) and his GTD tag makes the waters a bit murkier; if he doesn’t play tonight it’ll be an ALL-IN situation for Hayward, who becomes everything to the Jazz with Hill, Hood and Favors out of the lineup. If Hood sits out, Joe Johnson becomes a nice play again as well.
Bigs and point guards have done damage against the Nuggets this season, so Rudy Gobert and possibly Shelvin Mack are in play. I do think there are some better options than each of those guys, at a similar price tag, but it could be a good way to differentiate yourself in GPPs.
Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers (-6.5, ML: -265) – O/U: 214.5
————Pace> MIA: 25th – POR: 8th
OFF Efficiency> MIA: 25th – POR: 7th
DEF Efficiency> MIA: 10th – POR: 30th
Line Analysis:
Vegas likes this to be a close game tonight, given the marginal money line total. The Heat have played well over the last five games and the Blazers’ defensive struggles are still hanging over their heads, as they have allowed over 100 points in 13 straight games and in all but two games on the entire season. The Blazers had an extended rest, playing their last game on Wednesday, so I can see them getting off to a slow start based on what this line is saying.
MIA: Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Luke Babbitt (out)
There are plenty of Heat players to target going up against the worst defense in the NBA. Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside should ball outrageous since the Heat are basically the NBA’s version of The Walking Dead. These two will have so many fantasy points they won’t have hands to hold them…FP overflow! New phrase, make it catch on.
James Johnson is a guy that we’ve had our eye on for a while now, and he’s finally had those ??? performances that we could all be proud of- 33.9 and 38.7 FDP to be exact. Derrick Williams is back in the lineup tonight, but I don’t see it making much of a difference.
Wayne Ellington has been a shooting machine…no, literally. He doesn’t do anything else. Ellington’s minutes have gone up incrementally each game with all the injuries, but you’re screwed if his shot isn’t falling. Luckily, he’s up against the NBA’s worst defense.
POR:
If we’re going to see a competitive game, then Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum should flourish because of it. Lillard has been on a roll lately with at least 49 fantasy points in three of his last four games, while McCollum has averaged just under 40 FDP over his last three games; apparently, all they needed was some home cooking. Miami’s defense is usually pretty solid but, since they are banged up, have allowed an average of 107.5 points over the last four games.
I don’t mind Mason Plumlee in this spot for $/PT purposes. He’s reached salary expectations in four straight games and the Blazers will need him to deal with Whiteside for most of the night. Speaking of salary expectations, Maurice Harkless has exceeded them in five straight games and he’ll be asked to do some heavy lifting tonight as well; not on Whiteside, just in general.
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors (-17, ML: -3500) – O/U: 228.5
————Pace> PHX: 1st – GS: 3rd
OFF Efficiency> PHX: 23rd – GS: 1st
DEF Efficiency> PHX: 19th – GS: 9th
Line Analysis:
There are a lot of good teams in the NBA struggling right now, but don’t expect the Warriors to be one of them. Prior to Thursday’s loss to the Rockets, they were on a 12-game winning streak and they should be able to get back on the good foot tonight, as the biggest favorites of the night.
PHX:
The Suns should score plenty of points and they have the guys to do it. Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker and a very sneaky Brandon Knight are my targets here. The individual matchup isn’t the greatest but the fast pace and high total more than makeup for that.
Tyson Chandler had a very good game against the Warriors earlier this season. He could work, given the Warriors’ struggles down low, but it’s still a risky play nonetheless.
GS:
Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry are going to be two of the highest-owned players tonight and you can take that to the bank. I really like Curry in this matchup because he fouled out of that last game so he should be in straight-up assassin mode tonight. KD is pretty good at basketball too.
Draymond Green had his best fantasy output of the season on Thursday with 53.5 FDP. Of course, this comes on the same night that I write in my article…and I quote, “I’m not seeing enough upside to pay up for. His price has dropped down a bit below $8000 on both sites but he’s only exceeded 40 FDP three times in 18 games this season. There are a lot of power forward options for a lot cheaper that can pay off about 5x-7x their salary.” Yeah, about that… Two overtimes helped the cause a great deal, but he was still quite useful before that. There aren’t many power forward options on the board tonight that’ll wow you, so Draymond might actually be the biggest difference-maker on tonight’s slate. Hot take!
If you’re looking for cash game consistency, then Klay Thompson is your guy. At this time, I cannot consider him for GPPs because he hasn’t exceeded the 40-point mark yet this season. You can just tell, from Klay’s body language, that he isn’t the same type of player and he’s forcing way too many shots.
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