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>> NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Tuesday – November 22nd, 2016 <<<
New Orleans Pelicans @ Atlanta Hawks (-8, ML: -350) – O/U: 208
———–Pace: NO: 8th – ATL: 4th
Off Efficiency: NO: 25th – ATL: 14th
Def Efficiency: NO: 14th – ATL: 1st
Line Analysis:
The Hawks are probably salivating in anticipation for tonight’s game. According to the spread, they should roll easily but the major outlier is the Hawks #1 defense matched up against the sixth-worst offense of the Pelicans. That should create plenty of rebounds and the Hawks have two guys that will be more than happy to grab them.
NO:
The matchup for Anthony Davis could go one of two ways- 1) The fast tempo goes according to plan and allows him to draw to his man out to the perimeter…or 2) He gets bodied up by Dwight Howard and gets flustered like all hell. AD has been outstanding since the return of Jrue Holiday to the Pelicans lineup, putting up 60+ in both games; Holiday, himself, has put up exactly 36.9 FDP in each game. He’ll probably go overlooked today, in favor of AD, but going with both guys could be a great way to separate yourself in tournaments. However, there is a pretty good amount of risk since they go up against the NBA’s best defense.
Who knew that Holiday’s return to the lineup would be the thing to recapture a lost Tim Frazier? It’s working well with the two of them in the same backcourt and, if there is a way to attack the Hawks defense, that’s how you do it.
The only other Pelican I may take a chance on in this slate would be Solomon Hill. With Terrence Jones wearing the questionable tag for tonight’s game, Hill would fall into more minutes. This would classify as one those “quantity over quality” types of situations.
ATL:
You can basically pick a Hawks name out of a hat and feel comfortable with it in this matchup. Dwight Howard will probably go overlooked while people prefer to pay down at the center position this evening but, keep in mind, he’s posted at least 33 fantasy points in nine of his 12 games this season.
Paul Millsap is interesting tonight in this favorable matchup, and he did post totals of 39.9 and 45.2 FDP against the Pelicans last season. He’s somewhat underpriced, in my opinion, for a guy that’s had at least 39 fantasy points in three straight games.
A couple of side dishes to look at (pun intended) are Kent Bazemore and Dennis Schroder. I expect Bazemore to be incredibly popular tonight, but that price is awfully tough to pass up on. Whatever the opposite of popular is…that’s exactly what Schroder will be. I get it, I really do, but they are taking on the Pelicans and he’s the cheapest of the point guards that will be starting.
Thabo Sefolosha is expected to return to the lineup tonight, so that hurts the upside for guys like Kyle Korver and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Portland Trail Blazers @ New York Knicks (-2, ML: -120) – O/U: 215.5
———–Pace: POR: 8th – NYK: 18th
Off Efficiency: POR: 11th – NYK: 15th
Def Efficiency: POR: 30th – NYK: 27th
Line Analysis:
Ding, ding, ding…ring the bell for tonight’s main event! Both teams suck on defense right now, but scoring is not as issue. Not sure what else you need for fantasy success.
POR:
If Damian Lillard can cut some time out of his busy rap album promotion schedule, he’ll join the rest of teammates for a great matchup. All that promotion could be the reason why he hasn’t topped 33 fantasy points in his last four games. It’ll be tough to pass over a matchup against the Knicks, but that makes it a little easier. Hopefully, he can just defer to his more dependable teammate CJ McCollum who is cheaper. It’s not like he’s lighting the world on fire, but he’s had his moments this season. The Knicks (lack of) defense should elevate their final totals when it’s all said and done.
I say this every time the Blazers are on the docket, but their role players are always intriguing because they play meaningful minutes…they’re just not consistent. If you have the winning numbers for tonight’s lottery, then maybe you can tell us if Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless or Allen Crabbe will have the most points out of this trio. Lastly, I bet we’ll see more minutes from Mason Plumlee and Meyers Leonard in order to stick with KP.
NYK:
Loves me some Kristaps Porzingis tonight and there’s nothing any of you can do to deter me off this track. The Blazers have struggled mightily down low against bigs and if Joakim Noah is out tonight, it’ll be Porzingis that sees a major uptick in minutes and all the peripheral stats that go along with it. I would honestly pay $10K for him in this matchup tonight, but luckily I don’t have to.
Carmelo Anthony also gets to take aim at the league’s worst defense, and he should go well overlooked given all the other options tonight. I can make the argument that he’s a top-three option on this slate, and the Blazers (lack of) defense gives that some validation. He has yet to hit the 50-point mark this season, but if Noah is out he’ll have a great chance to do so. I don’t mind Derrick Rose in this spot either.
Willy Hernangomez will be a very popular play tonight…almost so popular that you could even make the case to fade him in large GPPs. He’s had two profitable games (against BKN and BOS, both favorable matchups) of 26.2 and 27.9 FDP this season, but his other performances have been very underwhelming. Hernangomez did play 29 minutes against the Hawks on Sunday but he was only able to manage 15.1 FDP in a tough matchup. Tonight is a far better situation for him and the price is certainly right, so I’m not as worried…but I’m a bit skeptical about such a hyped-up rookie who has only performed well in a handful of appearances, including the preseason.
Chicago Bulls (-1, ML: -115) @ Denver Nuggets – O/U: 207.5
———–Pace: CHI: 22nd –DEN: 7th
Off Efficiency: CHI: 8th – DEN: 21st
Def Efficiency: CHI: 12th – DEN: 17th
Line Analysis:
This game will probably get thrown under the rug for player selection tonight, but that could be a huge mistake. The Bulls will likely see a boost in tempo since the Nuggets run the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA and their defense isn’t exactly something we need to avoid. The Bulls small implied margin of victory isn’t too much to worry about; most teams playing in Denver see this dip in their outlook. It is a difficult city to play in, but a veteran team like the Bulls should be able to deal with it.
CHI:
There are a lot of favorable matchups for the Bulls tonight, but none better than the one Rajon Rondo has. The Nuggets are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and we all know Rondo can get them in a variety of ways. After a mediocre start to the season, Rondo has now exceeded 5x value in three of his last four games- the one game he didn’t was because of an early exit.
Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade are in excellent spots as well. They’ll probably both go overlooked, given the major star power on tonight’s slate, but I can see either guy being a tremendous source of production. Butler has obviously been the more productive of the two, but Wade will pop up every now again with something good for the people.
Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez are all decent value plays. I think there are far better options around the industry, but if you’re looking to differentiate yourself in tournaments this could be the way.
DEN:
While I do like the outlook for the Bulls, the same cannot be said for the Nuggets…from a fantasy perspective. This is probably the most random performing team in the NBA, and a lot of that is probably the case of them taking on the form of their head coach, Mike Malone. He does, after all, run one of the most chaotic rotations in the NBA. It’s not that I’m scared to go against the Bulls, this is squarely on the Nuggets.
If I am picking anyone, I do like the upside for Emmanuel Mudiay and Kenneth Faried. Mudiay has exceeded 5x value in four of his last five games, and this is a great chance to make it five and six. He’s got a great matchup against the matador defense that Rondo brings to the table and is much better at home than on the road. Faried laid a stinker in his last game (against the Jazz), but he did have two 40+ fantasy point performances last week. Chicago is giving the seventh-most fantasy points to the power forward position so far this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5, ML: -135) @ Los Angeles Lakers – O/U: 220
———–Pace: OKC: 4th – LAL: 6th
Off Efficiency: OKC: 23rd – LAL: 9th
Def Efficiency: OKC: 5th – LAL: 26th
Line Analysis:
This should be an excellent game tonight at Staples Center with two teams searching to find their new identity. OKC still has their energetic playmaker, but are now a tremendous defensive team. The Lakers have brought excitement back to their franchise, doing it in a collective manner by sharing the ball at a fast tempo. OKC’s line has risen to -3 since the open, but that doesn’t do anything to alter my outlook on this game.
OKC:
Russell Westbrook comes in as the top play of the evening, as he does anytime OKC is on the docket. Pretty much everything is working in his favor- great matchup, narrative (he’s from LA) and the fact that he’s a flat out beast. Westbrook has two straight triple-doubles/60+ FDP performances; not much persuading to be done here.
The Lakers are giving the up most points in the paint per game this season, so Steven Adams and Enes Kanter could be great beneficiaries of this. However, both guys have been wildly inconsistent lately and I don’t think I could trust them, even in this favorable matchup.
Victor Oladipo seems to finally be finding his groove with Westbrook. He’s exceeded the 5x value his last three times out and tonight’s matchup is a dream situation against the Lakers fifth-worst defense in the NBA. Oladipo is doing his best work with the second unit when Westbrook is off the court, but there’s no need to mess with a good thing.
Andre Roberson is mostly known for his defense, but he has exceeded or been right at 5x value in five of the last six games. The game is slated to be close, so a guy that can fill up the stat sheet in a number of different areas could prove to be incredibly valuable…especially as a late-night hammer.
LAL:
D’Angelo Russell is questionable for tonight’s game, so if he’s out that’ll reveal tons of shooting guard options from the Lakers. Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson should be the immediate beneficiaries in this instance; I would give the nod to Clarkson because I’m sure Sweet Lou could see Roberson D.
I want Julius Randle to be an option, but you can never be sure what his minutes/production are going to look like. However, he does have a favorable matchup and put up 39.3 FDP against OKC earlier this season. If this game is going to be close, then you can bet Randle will have something to do with it. Larry Nance Jr could also be a viable play, considering he’s coming off a season-best performance.