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—NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown – Thursday, November 17th—
New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards (-3, ML: -155) – O/U: 209.5
*———–Pace– NYK: 19th – WAS: 18th
*Off Efficiency– NYK: 16th – WAS: 23rd
*Def Efficiency– NYK: 30th – WAS: 18th
*Line Analysis:
Last night the Knicks got a win over the Pistons, who are a solid team at the defensive end. Tonight, they take on a team who is quite the opposite. The Wizards took an upset loss last night in Philly, and you might expect them to come out and show some fire tonight because of that.
NYK:
Despite being a Nets fan, I’ve rooted at the top of my lungs for Kristaps Porzingis – I’m so glad he’s made every Knicks fan look like the mouth-breather that they are. The Prince of New York had a career-high 35 points against the Pistons on Wednesday and he’ll look to stay hot for the second consecutive night. However, we did see KP struggle in B2B spots at times last season, just as any rookie would. This season he’s produced FDP totals of 17.6 and 26.8 in those scenarios.
It may have seemed like Carmelo Anthony took a back seat to the KP show last night, but he’s chugging along just fine. I would expect Melo to take lead on offense tonight; after all, this is still his team. If you want to completely dismiss him from this offense… (in the words of Lee Corso) not so fast, my friends.
Joakim Noah had a great game last night despite not playing in the fourth quarter. Noah has put up at least 29 FDP in three of his last four games while not scoring in double-digits, something he’s only done once this season. Justin Holiday has played at least 24 minutes in three of the last four games, falling into favor with the Knicks coaching staff.
WAS:
John Wall had an awful first half last night against the Sixers, but he did turn it around to finish up with 40.8 FDP in 24 minutes. Wizards head coach Scott Brook said that he wants to monitor the minutes on Wall, so that is something to keep in mind. Also keep in mind, the Knicks have given up the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the point guard position. That’s weird since Derrick Rose plays that position, right? Well, don’t get all worked up because he has allowed George Hill, Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas to reach 5x value.
If you’re wondering why the light has suddenly turned on for Otto Porter, it’s because this is a contract year for him. Sure, he had plenty of breakout performances last season but now we’re seeing him dive for loose balls and play defense- it’s all equated out to a well-rounded basketball player. Tonight could be a great time to buy in on Porter tonight since the Knicks have the worst defense in the league right now, and his price has gone down $200 on FD since last night.
Marcin Gortat has been incredibly consistent this season, but his price may be a bit too much for the lack of upside he brings to the table; I would also put Markieff Morris in the same boat, in terms of the price not matching the upside. No word on the availability of Bradley Beal yet, but should he miss another game then Sheldon McClellan would get the start while Tomas Satoransky and Marcus Thornton would also fill some of the void.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat (-3.5, ML: -155) – O/U: 200.5
*———–Pace– MIL: 17th – MIA: 23rd
*Off Efficiency– MIL: 15th – MIA: 29th
*Def Efficiency– MIL: 11th – MIA: 3rd
*Line Analysis:
The Heat have been struggling mightily at the onset of this season with a 2-8 overall record, including 1-5 at home. Yikes! It’s not like the Bucks are a great team that will come in and pounce on the Heat. The Heat’s strengths tonight should ultimately win out over the Bucks biggest weakness.
MIL:
A lot of people may take the road to Giannis Antetokounmpo over Harden tonight, but I don’t know that I’ll be one of them. Sure, he’s hit for 50+ fantasy points in his last two games but I don’t see that happening against a very stout defensive team that likes to slow down the pace. In his last back-end B2B scenario this season, he posted 27.4 FDP against the Mavericks. I don’t mind Jabari Parker either, but it’s certainly not my favorite play of the night.
MIA:
The mismatch I referred to in the line analysis refers to the Milwaukee Bucks and their inability to defend down low. I have zero faith in anyone they could possibly throw at Hassan Whiteside. Get busy, kid!
Justise Winslow is out and Goran Dragic is questionable for tonight’s game. Dragic did go through shootaround, so that’s a positive sign for him but not the rest of the Heat roster from a fantasy perspective. Tyler Johnson should see his usual allotment of minutes, but if Dragic returns it does cloud everyone else’s outlook for tonight.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Houston Rockets (-5, ML: -185) – O/U: 220
*———–Pace– POR: 8th – HOU: 15th
*Off Efficiency– POR: 14th – HOU: 7th
*Def Efficiency– POR: 27th – HOU: 22nd
*Line Analysis:
This will be the fastest-paced game of the slate, so we should have a great deal of interest here. Both teams are coming off a loss, but the spread tells me that something is wrong with the Blazers right now. You’re telling me a team that just played last night is a five-point favorite against a team with a much better all-around roster? OK…
POR:
Damian Lillard doesn’t have a great matchup now that Patrick Beverley is back for the Rockets. This is Beverley’s first game back rom injury, so I don’t think he’ll completely shut down Lillard; it’ll just be more of a pain in the ass kinda thing. I can see Lillard deferring to his teammate CJ McCollum a lot tonight, making him a tremendous play at the shooting guard position.
The rest of the Blazers are a crapshoot trying to predict. Any given night it’s a pick of the litter between complementary pieces like Mason Plumlee, Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless, Myles Leonard and Allen Crabbe– that’s the fantasy price you pay for having such a deep team in real life. In this situation, I’d have to give the upper hand to Crabbe because of his matchup and the fact that he’s played 30+ minutes in four of the last five games.
HOU:
James Harden did not live up to the billing last night, but he gets a chance at redemption tonight against the fourth-worst defensive unit in the NBA. He reached his exact floor prior to last night, and that’s still 40.9 points. On a short slate, you’d be a damn fool to pass up on Harden. People are worried that Beverley being back could end Harden’s reign at point guard, but I don’t see that happening. Harden has done so well to start the season and I don’t see the need to just automatically take that away from him.
Trevor Ariza might go overlooked on a slate that features a healthy amount of exceptional small forwards. He’s been unbelievably consistent over these last five games, with a floor of 24.5 FDP- he’s $5300 on FanDuel and $5600 on DraftKings.
Clint Capela is another fine option, especially since he’s posted at least 35 FDP in consecutive games and the Blazers have given up the most FDP in the NBA to centers over the last 10 games. I’d love to be able to trust Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, but I value my money.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-10, ML: -725) – O/U: 214
*———–Pace– PHI: 12th – MIN: 19th
*Off Efficiency– PHI: 30th – MIN: 3rd
*Def Efficiency– PHI: 25th – MIN: 28th
*Line Analysis:
I don’t expect the Sixers to put together many back-to-back wins this season and, apparently, Vegas doesn’t either. The Timberwolves aren’t off to the start everyone anticipated, but tonight could be a great spot for them to get everyone involved and (not to sound like a cornball) finally have a team-building win.
PHI:
Much to the chagrin of their head coach Tom Thibodeau, the T-Wolves have the third-worst defense in the NBA. The Sixers totally know that feeling.
Joel Embiid will be back in the lineup and his 36% usage rate will swallow up a lot of production from other players on the Sixers. However, I think Sergio Rodriguez is a great pivot off of the masses who will be going to Jerian Grant from the Bulls. Dario Saric and Ersan Ilyasova have been a nice boost for the team so far, and don’t break your bank for nice production.
MIN:
This is probably the best spot so far this season for the T-Wolves, let us take advantage. Andrew Wiggins is going crazy lately, becoming the poor man’s version of DeMar DeRozan and loading up the stat sheet with mostly points…and plenty of them. He’s exceeded value now in four of the team’s last five games and tonight would be an ideal opportunity to make it five in six.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng have been more like complementary pieces this season, as opposed to the headline attractions they were last season. You can’t put all the blame on them; this is a very talented roster and sometimes they’re just simply not going to get the volume of touches they want. They should do just fine tonight against the Sixers, who are giving up the fifth-most points per game in the paint this season.
Ricky Rubio is a great option for GPPs tonight. The Spaniard has been great since returning to the lineup, notching nearly a fantasy point per minute via filling up the stat sheet in a number of different areas. While most people run to Lillard, you can save $3000 on both sites and still get at least 30 fantasy points to feel comfortable with.
Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz (-4, ML: -175) – O/U: 192.5
*———–Pace– CHI: 21st – UTA: 30th
*Off Efficiency– CHI: 6th – UTA: 13th
*Def Efficiency– CHI: 9th – UTA: 5th
*Line Analysis:
Unsurprisingly, this game has the lowest total on the slate by a mile. I’m not going to completely stay away from this matchup because of that, but you should embrace it since a tight battle is to be expected.
CHI:
Rajon Rondo is doubtful to play tonight, so that means Jerian Grant would likely get the start. On Tuesday, Grant had a phenomenal 34.6 FDP finish but that total was ballooned by five steals and an easy Bulls victory. Tonight’s game with the Jazz will not afford Grant the luxury of steals or many shots for that matter.
All of that leg work will be left to Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade. On Tuesday, you saw both of these guys bringing the ball up the floor and handling the offensive control board with relative ease. Now, tonight will not be easy by any means, but expect nearly all of the volume to go through them tonight.
UTA:
With Derrick Favors and George Hill out tonight, expect Gordon Hayward to get a ton of usage and bounce back from Tuesday night’s lackluster performance. In some sort of statistical anomaly, small forwards have done well (based on their price) against the Butler defense and Bulls team.
Also because of the Favors injury, I like Trey Lyles at a bargain bin price. With Favors fully out of the way last game, Lyles played 32 minutes and put up 30 FDP against the Grizzlies.