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NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown for Tuesday – October 25th, 2016
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-9.5) – O/U: 205.5
Line Analysis:
The nine-point spread gives further evidence to what we all know- the Knicks are going to get their asses kicked. Typically, teams that host “banner night” give the opposition some incentive to come in with an axe to grind. I’m not sure it’s going to matter, as the Cavs hold the advantage in nearly all aspects of this game. There is a sneaky possibly that this could be the highest scoring game of the night, as the Cavs are very efficient and the Knicks will presumably run a much faster tempo than in the past.
NYK:
The Knicks come into this season with enormous expectations after adding Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee and Brandon Jennings. Unfortunately, most of these guys won’t make a difference in the opener but you might as well take mental notes on how they fit within their new offense. I could make the case for D-Rose in a favorable matchup against the opposing point guard; if you’re going to attack the Cavs, that is where you do it. However, he’s barely been with the team over the last few weeks and you have to think the cohesiveness isn’t there. I hate the matchup for Noah, but he could add a lot of peripheral stats that could possibly make him a solid value play.
Carmelo Anthony will be an option for us at some point, but not tonight. The Cavs have one of the best defensive units in the NBA, especially Melo’s direct matchup at small forward. He did hit 11 three-pointers against the Cavs last season (most against any team) and averaged 23.7 points and rebounds in 37.4 minutes over three games.
Kristaps Porzingis is the one guy I’d advocate using for the Knicks tonight. He does have a massive reach advantage K-Love and plays a similar type of game, in that they both spend a great deal of time out on the perimeter looking to shoot the three ball. Blocking shots is one thing you always count on from Porzingis; last season he averaged 1.9 per game in 28.4 minutes and already seems to be in mid-season form as he’s averaged 1.8 per game in 22.8 minutes over six appearances this preseason. The one thing that does concern me is the anticipated drop in rebounds. With Melo and Noah both very efficient on the glass, it’s just a mere formality.
ELITE PLAYS: Kristaps Porzingis
SECONDARY: Carmelo Anthony, Brandon Jennings
FADE: Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah
CLE:
OUT – Kay Felder (concussion)
The city of Cleveland got themselves a championship for the first time since the Lyndon B. Johnson administration (I looked it up) – In fact, the city has a chance to win their second title this year as the Indians begin the World Series a couple hundred feet away from the Cavs opener.
On a three-game slate, you better start your lineup with LeBron James and not look back. In my eyes, he’s the best player to ever lace them up in the NBA (yes, even better than MJ) and you don’t need many stats to be nudged in The King’s direction, but I’m going to give you some anyway. In four games against the Knicks last season, he averaged 26.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 6.3 APG. According to the DFS Army Projections, LBJ has the highest value and is projected for the most points at small forward.
Kyrie Irving is a popular pick among experts to take that next leap this season. He hit the clutch three-pointer to clinch Game 7 of the NBA Finals and since then it’s been a whole lot of rah-rah formulating into a cyclone of hype ready to hit the 2016-17 season. There are going to be plenty of talented point guards you can use on tonight’s slate, but this is a mismatch I want to take advantage of. Last season, the Bulls gave up the third-most fantasy points to point guards; that’s where D-Rose played 66 games last season. According to our system, Kyrie has the highest value rating and second-most projected points at the PG position. In my opinion, all of the big tournament winners tonight will have him in their lineups. Also, with the backup point guard Felder out for this game, Kyrie could get some extra minutes.
Kevin Love is a guy I could take or leave in this situation. I’m not a fan of rostering guys matched up with The Zingis and his 747 wing span. Sure, K-Love could take him out on the perimeter and kill it with the jumper, but his rebounds and inside scoring are very limited in this scenario.
This season you should expect Tristan Thompson to put up massive numbers with Timofey Mozgov on the other side of the country. In six games last year with Mozgov out of the lineup, Thompson averaged 8.8 points, 12.3 rebounds and just under a block and a steal in 37.1 minutes per game. Regardless of all the horror that comes along with being engaged to a Kardashian, Thompson ranks as the top value play at center in our system and the second-highest projected score for all centers.
JR Smith just got reacclimated with the team a week ago and I would not give him any serious recognition tonight as he gets his legs back under him. However, Iman Shumpert could be an interesting GPP dart on a night where you’ll have to conserve some money throughout your lineup; he will be the immediate beneficiary with JR likely on deck for a limited role.
ELITE PLAYS: LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson
SECONDARY: Kevin Love, Iman Shumpert
FADE: JR Smith
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5) – O/U: 194
Line Analysis:
The 5.5 spread is trying to tell us that this is going to be the closest game of the evening, but the lowest total doesn’t inspire much hope for DFS purposes. The Jazz are one of the most painful teams to watch in professional sports. If you like college basketball that doesn’t involve marching bands and rabid co-eds, you have a new favorite team. The Blazers won’t wow you much either, but they do have an MVP candidate.
UTA:
OUT: Gordon Hayward (finger), Alec Burks (knee, ankle), Derrick Favors (left knee)
With injuries to their two leading scorers, look for the Jazz to go to Rudy Gobert early and often. We have seen glimpses of The Stifle Tower doing his thing as the main option in this offense during the preseason. In six games, Gobert averaged 14.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.2 blocks in 24.2 minutes. Last season, he averaged 31.7 minutes per game so you can expect these numbers to massively inflate, especially as more of a focal point within the offense. Gobert is projected to score the most points of any center on the slate and has the second-best value score on FanDuel/fourth-best on DraftKings and FantasyDraft at the center position. Portland allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers last season.
Trey Lyles and Boris Diaw are interesting plays at the power forward position. Lyles had a solid preseason, averaging 10 points and 6.5 rebounds while sprinkling in some peripherals over 20.2 minutes. His averages from the 2015-16 season don’t look as glamorous due to limited playing time at the onset but, when given the opportunity, he often shined. Old man Diaw developed an immediate connection with his fellow Frenchie, and current teammate, Gobert during the preseason. The two worked well together down low, but Diaw’s upside isn’t much. I prefer Lyles in this spot tonight. It’s unclear whether Favors will play or not, but if he does play then this whole situation down low becomes a bit muddled.
George Hill seems to have a favorable matchup tonight as the Blazers gave up the fifth-most points to PGs last season. Now, let me tell you why this specific case is one of the most misleading DvP stats in all of basketball: The Western Conference is filled with talented backcourt play, mostly point guards, and teams will face guys like Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook upwards of three to four times a season, whereas, in the Eastern Conference, they’ll only see those stars once or twice. Hence, why there were only three teams from the Western Conference in the top 10 defending point guards last season- the Jazz (4th), Clippers (5th) and Spurs (9th) all have solid defensive units. The truth hurts, doesn’t it?
Rodney Hood will be back for the Jazz, and he’ll be asked to shoulder more of the scoring load while Hayward is out. I think there are better options on the slate, but the Blazers did give up the sixth-most points to shooting guards last season. Joe Johnson will slide into the small forward spot in Hayward’s absence- not intrigued. As a Nets fan, I’ve seen plenty of games where he just disappears for minutes at a time and there’s just no need for that on a three-game slate, or any slate for that matter. I’ve heard Dante Exum mentioned in some circles but with Hood and Johnson in the lineup, they limit his upside.
ELITE PLAYS: Rudy Gobert, Trey Lyles
SECONDARY: Boris Diaw, Rodney Hood, George Hill (Sisqo)
FADE: Dante Exum, Joe Johnson
POR:
OUT: Festus Ezeli (left knee surgery)
Much like I mentioned with Kyrie, there has been plenty of hype around Damian Lillard to take the next step in his career and it starts tonight. Lillard doesn’t have the easiest matchup tonight, but he’s getting to the point where we might be able to give him the MP tag: matchup proof. I prefer Lillard on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where the savings are noticeable from the top PG of the night.
I, like many other people, almost passed over the rest of this Blazers team but it proves just how valuable research can be. For whatever crazy reason, I said, “Hmm, I wonder what CJ McCollum did against the Jazz last season?” Well, to my surprise I found what you see in the photo below. It’s certainly interesting, and the fact that the Blazers are favored by a decent amount makes this a discussion.
Mason Plumlee had his best game of the preseason against this same Jazz squad six days ago, as he posted an 8/10/7 stat line in 24 minutes. The seven assists certainly pushed his night over the top, but I really can’t advocate using anyone against Gobert the Frenchman. I guess Plumlee could be a GPP dart toss from 50 feet behind the throw line, but I’ll let someone else take that chance.
ELITE PLAYS: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum
SECONDARY: Mason Plumlee
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors (-8) – O/U: 213
Line Analysis:
Eight points are usually a lot to lay against anyone, especially the Spurs. For most NBA squads, an eight-point spread at home screams blowout, but the Warriors are anything but most NBA squads. Last season, you would regularly find them as a double-digit favorite at home; now that they have KD, a lot of their spreads this season are going to look like Kentucky/St.Mary’s School for the Blind games. I think Vegas nailed this game right on the head and we’re going to see a closer game than most people anticipate.
SA:
OUT: Danny Green
For the Spurs, it all starts with Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, but tonight I think you’d be better served taking only one of them. I feel like most people, including myself, will feel comfortable taking Kawhi over KD based solely on the fact that you can save an average of $1500 on the two main sites and still get solid production. Over the course of his career, Kawhi has scored an average 32.1 FDP in games against KD, with the last two totaling and 48.6 and 44.9. Aldridge, on the other hand, doesn’t seem like the safest play on the board. In two games last season at Golden State, he totaled 30.7 FD points in 55 minutes. Totaled!
Manu Ginobili is unbelievably cheap tonight and this is your FREE SQUARE ALERT for the evening. With Green out, it’ll probably be Kyle Anderson that draws the start…but it’s Manu that will benefit the most. At $3600 on FanDuel/$3900 on DraftKings, you need a guy like this to fit more studs in your lineup.
ELITE PLAYS: Kahwi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobili
SECONDARY: Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson
FADE: Pau Gasol
GS:
CHALK ALERT! You’ll probably read this notification before all Warriors games, so get used to it. One aspect that a lot of people are failing to mention is that Golden State’s bench is nowhere near as good as it used to be. It remains to be seen just how much of an impact that’ll have on this team as a whole, but for the immediate future expect the starters/key players to log a significant number of minutes while the Warriors figure this all out.
It’s a travesty that Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are priced under $10K on both of the main sites and Klay Thompson is just over $6K as well. During the preseason, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr said to hell with resting his star players and opted to give them about 24-25 minutes per game to get acquainted with their new teammate; the results were incredible. I doubt it, but I really hope this is something we can all take advantage of here in the DFS Army. Hopefully, the majority of people were snoozing during the preseason and didn’t see all three of them going for 40+ fantasy points on a consistent basis. Initially, I felt like the Warriors would struggle and that one basketball wouldn’t be enough to go around for all three guys. Definitely not the case.
If Draymond Green wasn’t Day-Day-G, he would probably be the forgotten man in this scenario. He’s never needed real points to make a significant dent on the fantasy scoreboards and that’s why he’ll still be an intriguing play on any given night. Unfortunately, you can’t play four Warriors every slate and expect to have enough salary remaining for serviceable players. Draymond will likely be the casualty more often than not but, in the right matchups, he could provide serious production at a low ownership.
Three bench players that I’m very interested in are David West, Andre Iguodala and Patrick McCaw. West is going to have a significant role in this game, being matched up with Aldridge and Gasol. According to our system, West has the second-highest FP/min on FanDuel and third-highest on DraftKings/FantasyDraft. Iggy doesn’t have fancy projections, but he’s the first guy off the bench for the highest scoring team in the NBA. McCaw is a guy the Warriors are going to have to count on a great deal this season, and if you watched the preseason you’ll know he’s probably going to deliver for them. His biggest assets are the ability to score and force turnovers; McCaw had five steals in the first preseason game.
ELITE PLAYS: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson
SECONDARY: Draymond Green, David West, Andre Iguodala, Patrick McCaw