Track Breakdown
NASCAR is back on NBC this week with a special throwback race at ‘Too Tough To Tame’ Darlington. It’s an odd 1.6 mile egg-shaped track that can’t really be compared to other tracks. Drivers will be bumping around and if things run like they did last year with this new aero package we’ll have plenty of minor cautions but lots of drivers finishing on the lead lap. Starting track position and dominator points will matter the most this week since qualifying was rained out and track position was set by owner points and there are 367 laps. All the best drivers are starting up front so it’ll be hard for drivers in the back to move up; On top of that, historically winners at Darlington have almost always started in the top 5 positions. Every driver will be rocking a throwback paint scheme so if you’re a long term NASCAR junkie this should be a treat to watch.
Fast 40
- Kevin Harvick $10,600 (Pole) As is always the case with the pole sitter, he’s essentially guaranteed dominator points off the bat all the way until the competition caution and he gets the privilege of having the first pit stall. With all the great drivers right behind him you could easily justify fading him in GPP at that price since the lead will change throughout the course of the night.
- Kyle Busch $10,400 (6th) Kyle is in a great position this week. He’s coming off a week where he crashed at a track he’s historically bad at, but that won’t matter at all this week since this isn’t the same race package and he has a strong history here. He’s perhaps the only driver more dominant than Harvick this season and he should be contending all night.
- Brad Keselowski $10,200 (2nd) Keselowski has been rock solid all season and tries hard to win every race. He always ends up leading laps through unconventional methods, and is always a strong tournament play.
- Carl Edwards $10,100 (3rd) It’s no surprise Edwards won last year since this has been one of his most solid tracks historically. He’s starting behind 2 excellent drivers and has some tough teammates of his behind him so it’ll be tough for him to lead laps in this crowd but I wouldn’t be surprised if he led 200.
- Joey Logano $10,000 (5th) Logano looked horribly slow in practice so I’m bearish on him this week. He’s not in as good of form as he was earlier in the season especially when it comes to fastest lap points.
- Martin Truex Jr. $9,800 (8th) Truex is right in the mix with all these studs. He’s had a great year and can always be relied on for racking up some fast laps but he’s never been too successful at Darlington. He’s a more conservative driver and this is a racetrack that rewards aggressive drivers.
- Denny Hamlin $9,600 (7th) Hamlin is riding a streak of 6 straight top 10 finishes and he’s always a serious contender at Darlington. His track history here is cluttered with top 3 finishes and he won in 2011.
- Jimmie Johnson $9,300 (9th) Johnson’s 2016 season has been really disappointing for a driver of his caliber but a lot of that was due to crashes and Hendrick not really having it together. He was the fastest driver in practice yet again this week and he’s a monster at Darlington historically, winning in 2013.
- Kyle Larson $9,100 (16th) Larson finally broke through last week with his first career win. Albeit that was with the super high downforce package, he’s been super fast this season and will always rack up fastest laps. He’s the most expensive he’s ever been but starting 16th he’s bound to move up given his current form and his excellence at these bumpin’ and grindin’ style tracks.
- Matt Kenseth $9,000 (10th) Kenseth has been overwhelmingly mediocre this season for a driver of his caliber and I doubt he’s passing the 9 super studs ahead of him this week.
- Kurt Busch $8,800 (4th) Kurt hasn’t dominated much this season but is starting 4th because of his consistency in finishing in the top 10. He lacks both dominator and place differential upside and probably shouldn’t be on your lineup this week.
- Jeff Gordon $8,700 (15th) Gordon owned Darlington over the course of his career but that was in the 24 car. With Dale Jr. out for the remainder of the season, he’ll be filling in for him but Hendrick’s equipment priority will be put into Elliott and Johnson. He’ll finish middle of the pack yet again.
- Chase Elliott $8,500 (11th) Elliott is coming off of the race of his career losing narrowly to Larson. It’s hard to see him getting around these super studs up front, especially with him being in the Chase bubble. He’s going to drive super carefully to make sure he holds off the likes of Newman, Dillon, and McMurray so he represents more of a cash game play.
- Austin Dillon $8,200 (12th) Dillon is right behind Elliott in the Chase bubble and what I said about him stands for Dillon. The only difference is he’s cheaper and not as good of a driver.
- Ryan Newman $8,000 (14th) Newman is another bubble driver on the outside looking in. Darlington is one of his best tracks and he generally finishes top 10. He’ll be aggressive and I like him as a play this week.
- Tony Stewart $7,800 (17th) This is Stewart’s last Darlington race before retirement and he loves Darlington. It suits his style of racing and he’ll be sure to give everyone around him hell.
- Ryan Blaney $7,600 (20th) Blaney has looked impressive this season but he’s yet to break through with a good finish and he runs into bad luck more often than not. He looked fast in practice so he could be a sneaky play.
- Kasey Kahne $7,500 (18th) Kahne is on the outside looking in for the Chase this year and will need a win to get in. He’s looked mediocre all season so he’s probably going to try something aggressive like pit strategy.
- Jamie McMurray $7,400 (13th) McMurray got knocked out of the Chase bubble with Larson’s win so he’s right in the thick of things. He probably qualified too high to be worth much value and his practice times were slow.
- Clint Bowyer $7,300 (27th) Faaaaade.
- Greg Biffle $7,200 (23rd) Biffle will be rocking the Hooters car this week and his car was fast as tits in practice. His track history here is awesome and he’s starting in a good spot. Should be chalky.
- Paul Menard $7,100 (24th) Menard was pretty fast in practice and he represents basically the exact same play as Biffle except for his track history here is bad.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,900 (22nd) Stenhouse’s practice numbers were pretty good along with the rest of his teammates. Outside of a crash last year he’s been good in his short history at Darlington and he’s done well at intermediate tracks this season.
- AJ Allmendinger $6,800 (21st) Allmendinger has looked a little better than the guys starting around him so far this season, but those numbers are slanted due to his excellence at road and short tracks. His practice times and track history here are unimpressive.
- Chris Buescher $6,600 (31st) Buescher is starting so low that it’d be stupid not to play him this week. He’s fighting to stay 30th in the points standing over David Ragan to secure his place in the Chase and his car has been super fast with the full force of Roush behind him. Expect high ownership.
- Aric Almirola $6,400 (26th) Almirola has the honor of sporting the legendary Richard Petty STP 43 car this week. He’s had incredibly low ownership (<5%) in GPPs as of late and this week I think he’s a good sneaky value pick. He finished 11th here last year when they were testing out this exact aero package and he’s starting pretty low.
- Trevor Bayne $6,200 (19th) Bayne is just a bit outside of the Chase bubble so he’d need a win but he’s far underpriced for how good he and his team has been this season. He had a spectacular race ruined here last year by Danica crashing into him.
- Casey Mears $6,000 (28th) Nothing impressive here, looks like a fade.
- Danica Patrick $5,900 (25th) Danica is finally under $6,000 but she’s not a good pick this week starting 25th.
- Landon Cassill $5,800 (29th) Cassill is usually the best sub-5K driver from week to week. He’s not starting in the 30s this week unfortunately but he finished 20th last year and could easily pass the likes of Mears and Patrick.
- David Ragan $5,700 (32nd) It’s hard to guess how Ragan will do at Darlington since he’s crashed most of his races here. They were with the disbanded MWR team anyway so I’ve got nothing but a shrug over here.
- Michael McDowell $5,500 (30th) I don’t like him starting 30th. There are better darts below him.
- Regan Smith $5,300 (33rd) Now Smith is an interesting play this week since he actually won at Darlington in 2013. Granted that was with Furniture Row racing who’s since moved onto Truex Jr. but that’s his experience here far outshines anyone else starting in the 30s.
- Matt DiBenedetto $5,200 (35th) Matty D is a great pick starting so low. He finished 25th here last year and gets to drive in a Toyota unlike the rest of the scrubs.
- Brian Scott $5,000 (34th) Probably the cheapest driver there is that has any sort of upside. He sneaks in fastest laps much more than any other 5K racer.
- Cole Whitt, Michael Annett, Reed Sorenson, Josh Wise, and Jeffrey Earnhardt– All fades who will be laps down by the end of the race. Gamble with Sorenson only if you absolutely have to.