PITCHERS
Justin Verlander (DET @ MIN) has the best opportunity of the bunch tonight, going against a whiff-happy Twins team that will be on the back-end of a doubleheader. Verlander has been outstanding in the second half of the season, not allowing more than three runs since his last start in June. He’s faced the Twins twice this season with a combined stat line of 15.1 IP, 8 H/5 BB, 4 ER and 19 Ks.
David Price (BOS @ BAL) has been on a roll lately, winning seven of his last eight starts in addition to posting a 2.73 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. One of the great misconceptions of the MLB season has been the fact that rolling left-handed pitchers out against the O’s is playing with fire; that couldn’t be further from the truth. In fact, they have the fifth-worst wRC+ rating against southpaws in MLB.
You know it’s going to be a rough night when Jeff Samardzija (SF @ SD) is actually considered as an option. However, this has more to do with the Padres striking out 25% of the time against right-handed pitching and just flat out sucking in general. Over the course of his career, Samardzija has a 2.54 ERA and 1.02 WHIP at Petco Park. He’s also had five quality starts in his last seven outings; it would’ve been six of his last eight, but he missed a QS by one out in that game. UPDATE: In a twist of events, the Padres have put three of their September call-ups into tonight’s lineup, thus making Samardzija a much better option than he was this morning.
I don’t like the matchup at all, but it’s tough to argue with the home/road splits of Tyler Chatwood (COL @ LAD). At home, in the unfriendly confines of the thin Denver air, he’s 4-8 with a 6.12 ERA – but on the road, Chatwood is rolling at 7-1 with a 1.77 ERA and an opposing hitters have a batting average of .192. However, the Dodgers are pretty good against right-handed pitching with their lefty-laden lineup so take all this information with a grain of salt.
The matchup between Mike Fiers & Ricky Nolasco (HOU vs. LAA) probably won’t get much attention, but there could be a decent SP2 to be had here. We’ll start with Fiers, who is coming off an exceptional outing against the Mariners (6 IP, 3 H/1 BB, 4 K) where he got the win. He’s had a couple of these surprising starts recently, but I’ll mention Fiers on the fact that this Angels offense has seemingly mailed it in for the rest of the season. Nolasco goes for the Angels and he’s been solid in three of his last four starts. We all know how the Astros have the propensity to strike out and Nolasco has recently shown seven strikeout upside in two of his last four starts. UPDATE: Kole Calhoun is not in the Angels lineup, giving Fiers a bit more optimism.
They broke our hearts last night, but the Phillies are usually a good team to pick on. Seth Lugo (NYM vs. PHI) is a decent option for a discount tonight, given that the Phils have been striking out at a 29% rate in September. The Mets just got embarrassed/swept by the Braves over the last three days, so at the most, you might get an inspired Mets team to rally behind Lugo and get him the win. Lugo does have a 2.21 ERA and 1.09 in six starts since joining the Mets.
HITTERS
-Top Tier-
- Mike Trout (LAA @ HOU) seems to be back on the good foot with five straight solid outings and he gets a positive matchup tonight against Fiers, who he’s hit well against in the past. It’s a limited numbers of times, but Trout does have three extra base hits (including a home run) in 10 at-bats.
- Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen and Jung-Ho Kang (PIT @ MIL) are in great spots batting against tonight’s Brewers starter, Chase Anderson, who has massive splits that have right-handed batters going bananas on him.
- Jonathan Villar (MIL vs. PIT) on the other side of the diamond is a solid way to go as well. Tonight’s starter for the Pirates, Ryan Vogelsong, has gotten beaten up against lefties and with Villar batting leadoff expect him to be on base and running often.
-Mid Tier-
- Eric Hosmer (KC @ CLE) is massively cheap against tonight’s starter for the Indians, Mike Clevinger. For $3200 on FanDuel, you have access to a number three hitter in a hitter’s park and this could end up working out very well.
- Tampa Bay Rays bats against the Luis Cessa of the New York Yankees could be a solid roster move tonight. In Cessa’s last 39 innings, he’s given up 10 home runs. The Rays brought their A-squad to the top five places in their batting order tonight so that would be the ideal spot to look.
-Value Tier-
- TJ Rivera (NYM vs. PHI) has seven hits in his last eight games, but tonight he’s batting cleanup in the Mets batting order. Adam Morgan goes for the Phils, and while’s he shown glimmers of hope at times, the stats don’t lie: Right-handed hitters have a .312 batting average against Morgan and have hit 19 home runs in 321 at-bats. The price is right on Rivera across the industry.
- Dee Gordon (MIA vs. ATL) is still too cheap on FanDuel at $2600 as a legitimate leadoff man with stolen base upside. He’s also got a decent BvP history against tonight’s Braves starter, Josh Collmenter, at 5-for-13 with a home run, which isn’t exactly Gordon’s forte.
- Roman Quinn (PHI @ NYM) reminds me of a much better Michael Bourn, when he was good. He doesn’t have the most glamorous matchup tonight, but he’s affordable everywhere and a stolen base or two certainly isn’t out of the question.
- Yuri Gurriel (HOU vs. LAA) is still at the bargain bin price of $5600 over on FantasyDraft. He’s batting second for the Astros and this is another salary-slashing option with massive amounts of talent.