I am feeling pretty lucky today, because…well, I stepped in dog shit. Literally. Old wives’ tales will tell you that’s lucky, but I consider it pretty gross, considering any type of creature’s shit is gross. If you’re down with symbolism (or dog shit), I’m your guy tonight!
There is absolutely no need to get cute with pitching tonight. You have four bonafide aces that are fully capable of handling their business and it’s just a matter of which one tickles your fancy. There’s no football in sight this evening, so just focus on the diamond.
In terms of hitting, I’m so glad there’s no Coors Field on the slate. These are the nights that I typically do so much better on; that thin air will mess with your mind. While we pay up for pitching tonight, you know damn well that we’re going to have to find some value with the sticks.
If anything else arises, hit me up on Twitter: @14AdotWalsh
PITCHERS
- Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies) – My, how the times (24 hours) have changed for the Phils as they go from having a slug party against James Shields to…well, not having such a great time against Sale tonight. The Phils have been particularly awful against southpaws in recent memory, and overall, as they have the second-worst wRC+ rating of 73 on the season as a whole. He gets a small boost from his usual outlook considering he gets to face a pitcher instead of the usual DH. In Sale’s last six starts he has gone at least eight innings, had two complete games and had at least eight strikeouts in five of those six. On DraftKings and FantasyDraft, he’s the most expensive pitcher by a large margin, but on FanDuel he’s squeezed in the middle of tonight’s Big Three.
- Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins) – He’s averaged 53.2 FD points over his last five starts, going no less than 6.2 innings in that span. Against the Marlins, Scherzer shouldn’t have any problems getting into that range being slated for 9.1 strikeouts tonight, which is by far the highest on the slate.
- Corey Kluber (Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals) – He’s had at least seven strikeouts in his last seven starts and posted respectable totals every time out since July 3rd. In DraftKings and FantasyDraft lineups, you’ll get a considerable discount on price and ownership levels with Kluber when a lot of people will be looking to Sale and Scherzer.
- Masahiro Tanaka (New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays) – If you’ve been following baseball all season, you’re well aware of the swing-and-miss show that the Rays put on each night. Tanaka won’t get much attention tonight due to the Big Three and his last outing, which wasn’t bad at all, but produced no strikeouts against a great contact team like the Red Sox. Tanaka’s recent advanced stats are outstanding, according to Bryan Mears article on FantasyLabs today: “He’s [Tanaka] allowed a batted-ball distance of 169 feet, an exit velocity of 85 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 18 percent, and he’s induced ground balls at a 65 percent clip.” Tanaka recently started against the Rays on September 10th where he struck out 10 batters over seven innings en route to a win and 61 points on FD/34.9 points on DK & FD2.
- Matt Moore (San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers) – The last two times he toed the rubber at Dodger Stadium, Moore has been outstanding- of course, his latest performance there was 8.2 innings of perfection. What’s even better for Moore tonight is the fact that the Dodgers are striking out at a 29% clip against southpaws this month and on the season as a whole, they’re dead-last in wRC+ against lefties. On SP2 sites, Moore is your go-to guy to pair with one of the aces above.
- Chad Kuhl (Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers) – He’s another interesting option for SP2 sites, given the fact that he’s going up against the Brewers. Kuhl is coming off a solid performance against the Phils, but he’s also had some undesirable performances mixed in amongst the decent ones. Again, this selection has more to do with Kuhl’s opponent rather than his actual skillset.
- Luis Perdomo (San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks) – Three of his last five starts have been great for a man of this discounted price. One of them was at home against the D-Backs back on August 21st, where he struck out five over seven innings en route to a victory.
HITTERS
-Top Tier-
- Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz & Mookie Betts (Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles) – Same story as yesterday with Betts and Ortiz, both guys have crushed the O’s this season, especially at Camden Yards. Add Bogaerts into this mix of guaranteed production tonight against Ubaldo Jimenez, if you can afford them.
- Mike Trout & Albert Pujols (Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers) – The top tier is reserved for Trout and Pujols belongs in the mid-tier, but let’s not get into technicalities. Both of these guys have a great history against tonight’s Rangers starter, Derek Holland, and with the total at 11 I’m willing to bet they have a great night.
- Kris Bryant (Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds) – Going up against a left-handed rookie certainly has its advantages. The wind is also blowing out to left, furthering Bryant’s chances of going yard tonight.
-Middle Tier-
- Adam Jones, Manny Machado & Chris Davis (Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox) – The O’s are favored in this game that features an over/under of 10, but they also get to go against Clay Buchholz who is no good at all. I also don’t mind any of these other Orioles hitters tonight, but Jones and Davis have a stellar BVP track record against Buchholz.
- Texas Rangers bats vs. Los Angeles Angels – The Rangers are -155 favorites tonight going up against Jered Weaver. With exception to Jonathan Lucroy and Rougned Odor (who are both great options as well), the 1-4 hitters of the Rangers order are favorably priced: Carlos Gomez, Nomar Mazara, Carlos Beltran and Adrian Beltre all make for a scintillating stack this evening.
- New York Mets bats vs. Atlanta Braves – The Mets are massive -193 favorites tonight, and believe me, this has nothing to do with Bartolo Colon toeing the rubber for them. They have lost the first two games of this series, so expect a much different Mets team to come out tonight. The most intriguing of these options has to be T.J. Rivera who is on an absolute tear right.
-Value Tier-
- Andrelton Simmons (Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers) – Great price for a guy batting clean-up in a game with an over/under of 11. Simmons had been on a tear prior to his last two games, but tonight’s setting in Arlington makes for a great way to get back on the horse. Yee-haw.
- Alex Avila (Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies) – He’s priced at a very affordable price in a great hitter’s park. Avila is batting sixth tonight and should have no problem hitting value in the oh-so difficult catcher’s position.
- Adam Frazier & Josh Bell (Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers) – These two did damage last night and they’re back in the 1-2 hole for the Bucs once again.