Another day, another hopeful dollar inside the walls of the DFS Army barracks. Tonight’s abbreviated nine-game schedule finally allows me to get back to writing in paragraph form, instead of the mundane bullet points that we have all gotten used to. I really enjoy doing it this way, but with the amount of 15-game slates on the regular and all the decimal points that go along with it, I’d probably end up going crazy doing that every day (if I haven’t already.)
Once lineups start to come out, I’ll post updates on any intriguing value that may start to emerge. You can also hit me up on Twitter @14AdotWalsh if you want to discuss anything further in detail.
Also, if you can’t read, make sure you get the brail version of this article – or just listen to the podcast.
Without a doubt, most of you will be deciding between three elite arms, and I can’t blame you for that. Madison Bumgarner is somehow the most expensive pitcher across the industry and I think that will certainly bring his ownership level down a bit. I shouldn’t say somehow since MadBum has a 1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 since the beginning of July.
The one lesson I’ve always had in tow with me comes from the betting industry – if it looks too good to be true, then it usually is. MadBum being the most expensive pitcher isn’t what I’m talking about, rather, Jose Fernandez is taking on the Cincinnati Reds and he’s NOT atop the price list? OK. This is where the majority of folks are going to run first, and for good reason. However, we have seen Fernandez struggle (err, be human) on the road and my reason for fading him comes strictly from an ownership perspective. My bold call on today’s podcast was that Dan Straily would end up getting the win over Fernandez tonight. What’s wrong with me? Not a damn thing, I am wonderful because my grandma said so in the birthday card she gave me this year. In fact, Straily has a 2.61 ERA and a WHIP of 1.00 in his last five starts and opponent slash lines of .205/.293/.368 to boot.
MadBum’s counterpart, Jacob DeGrom, could actually push the Giants ace into this foreseen great performance. Most people familiar with baseball will understand that, but for the casual fan, let me explain. With the over/under currently sitting at six, we’re going to see a game that we can count the total number of runs on one hand. Both teams are also in the thick of the playoff race and every single pitch will matter in a low scoring game…why not have your best pitcher out there?
I’ve really gotten into these two-pitcher sites lately, and having Kyle Gibson go the distance will further my love for them. I think I may have to go back to that same team tonight for my SP2 and roll out Tyler Duffey. He’s got extreme splits that favor his road starts and the Royals haven’t scared anyone since raising that shiny trophy in October.
Let’s move it over to the offenses, and two sneaky teams that I really like tonight are the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies.
With the Orioles, it’s not the sexiest play on paper since they just got skilled by lefties the last two days, but they face rookie right-hander Joe Musgrove and the Houston Astros this time around. The O’s do have the most HRs (143) and the third-highest batting average (.272) against righties. Not to mention, Camden Yards has certainly made a hitter or two feel good before.
The Phillies are vastly underpriced on FanDuel like they’re facing the National League All-Stars, but they’re not, it’s just Ross Stripling. The most expensive probable starter, Ryan Howard, is listed at $3000, while guys like Cameron Rupp, Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco are all just under that mark. Cesar Hernandez has been a roll lately in the leadoff spot, putting together some quality at-bats.
Other offenses that are fully capable of doing some damage tonight are the Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins and Washington Nationals.
The Indians got their hearts absolutely ripped out last night in the ninth inning, but a matchup with Carlos Rodon could certainly put them in a better mood. Francisco Lindor against a lefty is usually money in the bank and tonight should be no different; his $3500 price tag on FanDuel doesn’t do him justice, in my opinion. Also look for Lindor to swipe a bag or two against Rodon, who has struggled to limit the opposing team’s running game in the past. The best value of the night is Carlos Santana on FantasyDraft, where his price of $6900 puts him in the same boat as guys like Marwin Gonzalez, Derek Dietrich and Peter O’Brien – ’nuff said. Brandon Guyer is hitting .354 against lefties with serious .485 OBP/ .610 SLG/ 1.095 OPS peripherals as a feather in his cap. Abraham Almonte could be a cheap option that can get on base and steal them as well.
Going against Dillon Gee is usually a good thing, but when it’s the Twins, it’s even better. Four years of working on my Journalism degree and that’s what I come up with to say the Twins are an excellent option, OK. Brian Dozier won’t be cheap, but he’ll sure as hell be effective leading off once again. Joe Mauer has a sore quad and it’s possible that he’s held out of the lineup again, so guys like Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco and Trevor Plouffe will have to pick up the production. These are just the names you know, but against Gee, any one of the nine Twins batting order could do damage.
The Nationals are the last team worth mentioning today as they go against 22-year-old rookie Rob Whalen. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy will be the names that you think of first, but Trea Turner will certainly be in the mix if they’re running up the score.