Sunday softball review just to show you again what a cash game player looks like on paper. Our local “old man wood bat” league kicks off it’s double headers after Father’s Day so hopefully the stat lines get even better. But three games in, and my line is 8/13, 1 Dbl, 3 R, 3 RBI. That alone could be either a cash player or a GPP player. Here is why it’s cash. The upside is limited and the individual games are 2/4, 2/4, and 4/5. Game 1 had 0 runs scored and 0 RBIs, but game 2 had the double and 2 RBI with a run scored. Game 3 had the hits, but all singles and as a result scored 2 Runs, but only had 1 RBI. I’m also our leadoff hitter, so my RBI opportunities are usually limited while I score the majority of our runs when I get on base.
Now, slide me down to 5th or 6th in our order and I will get a lot more RBI chances because when I come up there will be more times I have several men on base in front of me. So, instead of FanDuel scoring of 6 pts, 20.2 pts, and 21.2 pts I might tally more RBIs in an AB giving me ceilings near 30 pts instead of having to have 4/5 games just to get over 20 pts. I’m poking fun of softball, but I’m trying to show you an example of how this works because it’s very relevant to MLB dfs. I have no ceiling. Yet, I have a decent floor. I will score points nearly every game, but I’ll never score you so many I win you a tourney with my production. It’s why you’ll keep hearing me say I’m a prototypical cash game player. On top of it all, my price might be high because I always bat at the top of the order and am not a platoon player. I also hit both righties and lefties close enough to the same you don’t worry about it (yes, I know it’s fucking softball, I’m making a point), further pressuring you to pay for my floor while knowing I need to come through with 12+ points to pay off my salary. Because I have no upside to bail out other misses in your lineup, you kind of can’t afford to take me all the time because for the price, you’d like to see more upside that you just won’t get with me. I’d probably be priced like a Jon Jaso, Obdul Herrera, or even Jurickson Profar. Jon Jay is a more perfect example. You pass on these guys all the time because they just don’t have a lot of upside for their prices. You’d rather see a Zach Cozart, Eduardo Nunez, or Adam Eaton because they can leave the yard on occasion which adds to their ceiling when also knocking down multi-hit games consistently.
Anyway, on to the slate today. That horse is likely dead and at the glue factory.
CHC@WAS – Normally, we’d be on both pitchers here, but both give me reservation. Both offenses are solid enough to relegate both pitchers more into tourney categories imo than cash. However, Scherzer will be the chalk pitcher of the slate most likely. So, running him in cash is probably fine just on ownership alone. I will also temper any expectations of bats here. I’m not thinking either pitcher is likely to blow up and give up 6+ runs making it worth my time to stack this one today. I’m probably looking elsewhere first for all aspects of dfs in this game. Yet, I’d like to watch it on TV tonight because it should be a great game and a great series.
PHI@TOR – Eickhoff and Dickey give us a very interesting game. Dickey has been a target this year for bats, but Vegas thinks TOR is a massive favorite in this game. If Dickey gives up runs to PHI then TOR will need to score more and Vegas seems to indicate this might happen. As a savvy dfs’er, you need to look into this game on both sides because 8-7 or 9-5 or whatever wouldn’t surprise me here. Roger’s Centre gives up homers like we saw this weekend. So, Mikael Franco might start correcting the ship here and the new starter in Tommy Joseph might go yard here, too. Neither would shock me.
CIN@ATL – This game makes me want to run and hide. I think all hitters here are capped in their power. Votto looks like he’s cash viable and a nice option. Duvall looks like he’s heading for regression soon making him a bit overpriced outside of CIN’s home park, even though he can hit it out of any park. Neither pitchers make me want to shy away from the bats. I just don’t like the park or offenses in general.
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DET@CWS – Matt Boyd and James Shields don’t scare me either. I won’t have any exposure to them other than opposing bats. This game appeals to Vegas as a potentially explosive game.
CLE@KCR – You might think the Carrasco “stuff” is going to bring you floor, but I’m going to tell you his ceiling is capped by KC’s ability to put balls in play. Last time they faced off, Carrasco only whiffed 2 KC bats in 5 innings. A lot of places have Carrasco rated high today. I’m not sold. I’m not touching Volquez, either. I don’t know how excited I am about any bats, but I might look to some CLE action and some KC BvP for tourneys.
LAD@ARI – Greinke is rounding into shape indicating he needed time to adjust to his new surroundings. My issue with him is he hasn’t looked good at home. I don’t consider him cash safe until we see it. On the other side, I’m not intimidated by LAD bats so Greinke is actually in a strong spot to get a win. He just isn’t in a predictable spot to tally a lot of punchouts. Bolsinger hasn’t scared me yet with any phenomenal stuff, but he is certainly a solid GPP value pitcher if looking to save a lot of money and load up on some bats. $5900 only needs bring you about 30 pts to bring enough value to justify the pick. Bolsinger can do that. I don’t know how much I love any Dodger bats tonight. I’m more bullish on ARI bats and will be looking to use a few to take advantage of this park while their prices are still a little suppressed.
MIN@LAA – This is another game that could get out of hand. Both pitchers suck. They are highly flammable. The offenses don’t mean much on paper because they have been inconsistent to cold. However, it’s a game I think I want a piece of tonight.
TEX@OAK – While I do think Rougned Odor is still underpriced, I don’t want much else to do with this game. The pitchers aren’t great, even though Manaea is getting publicity. But, the bats don’t impress me here, either. I’ll be looking elsewhere except on shorter slates that force me to look deeper here.
MIA@SDP – This game is funny. I disagree with Vegas here and think it might go higher scoring than the “experts” do. Another set of pitchers that aren’t all that much. I kind of like SDP bats in this one. I’m not in any way stacking them, but I’ll be looking into Wil Myers and Matt Kemp. The catcher, Derek Norris, mashes lefties and Chen has been known to give some fly balls up. Norris hits them out of Petco on occasion, so he might be a little sneaky.
MIL@SFG – This game SHOULD garner attention but thinking about this offenses in a pitcher’s park like AT&T just makes me puke a little in my mouth. I should be less biased and look deeper into this game because the pitching has been bad from Matt Cain this year. Chase Anderson is actually not in a terrible spot, but I don’t know that I can take him with a lot of confidence. Which brings me back to Scherzer and Greinke as the chalky plays for cash. Chase Anderson might be next, but that’s really reaching considering the proven numbers the big two have put up. Paying up for pitcher isn’t maybe going to do much for you tonight, but it’s definitely safer than gambling down low and taking big bats for cash.
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