Phoenix International Raceway is a 1 mile long track that’s bigger than a small track but smaller than an intermediate track. It tends to race favorably to the leader, allowing them to rack up hundreds of laps led. It’s harder to gain spots and easier to get lapped here so place differential isn’t as important as it usually is. You’ll absolutely need the big lap leader on your team along, and since there weren’t any quality players that qualified low you’ll need to scrape out value from the scrub drivers. Cautions are lower than average and since the racing is spread out instead of in packs there are never too many people caught up in one crash.
God Tier Plays
Kevin Harvick $10,800
I was honestly expecting to see a $12,000 price tag on Harvick but he’s laughably cheap for how dominant he’s been at Phoenix. In the last 8 races at Phoenix, Kevin Harvick has 5 wins and 2 second place finishes. He’s a lock for 100+ lead laps and potentially 200+. With a starting position of 18 he gets a little place differential bonus plus his floor is raised too. He’s probably going to be 60% or more owned in GPP and 90% in cash games and I’d honestly recommend playing him 90% in GPP and 100% in cash. Fading him is a really risky move since betting on a crash isn’t the best strategy.
High End Plays
Jimmie Johnson $10,300 (fade)
Jimmie does boast a solid history at Phoenix but he qualified 5th and will have to go to the back of the field to switch to a backup car. He’d need to fight all the way back to the top 5 to be of value and that’s a tough feat at a track like this.
Kyle Busch $10,000
Rowdy looks to lead the first good chunk of laps so long as he beats Carl Edwards in the first lap. I have no doubt he will as he’s always aggressive off starts and restarts. I don’t think he’ll hang on to the lead however as he’s not as good during long runs as the likes of Harvick and Logano. He should be in the top 5 come the end of the race but there’s nowhere to go but backwards once Harvick makes his way up front.
Joey Logano $9,900 / Brad Keselowski $9,800
The Penske Bros took 1st and 2nd place last week and have been dominant in every race with the new aero package. Both have good history at Phoenix but they’ve never been able to beat Harvick. Keselowski is starting lower than Logano so he makes for a good gpp place differential play. Logano is a safer bet to place in the top 3. Playing them stacked together is the way to go as they tend to work in tandem when they’re running well like last week.
Kurt Busch $9,600
Kurt tends to have certain tracks he always performs well at and Phoenix is one of them. He lead everyone in the first practice with blazing speed but the question is will he lead any laps with the 4th starting position? He got knocked off the pole pretty quick last week and has to tangle with the likes of his brother, Harvick, and all of team JGR from where he’s starting and it’d be a real surprise to see him break through the tough competition. He’s still a pretty safe bet to finish high so he could be a cash play.
Denny Hamlin $9,500
Hamlin will start behind his JGR teammate Kyle Busch and will probably be content working with him and Carl Edwards drafting behind him. There’s a possibility he could overtake the lead in time but there’s a lot of competition to overcome from his own teammates. He’s a top 10 lock barring something going wrong.
Carl Edwards $9,400
Edwards has a chance to take the pole from his teammate Kyle Busch in the front line but it’s not likely. I don’t like Edwards this week and won’t be using him much, as he can only go down unless he wins. He’s still worth a small amount of exposure in case he does take the lead laps away from Kyle Busch.
Martin Truex Jr. $9,300
I don’t think Truex will win or lead any laps but I think he makes for a solid cash game play. He has a nose for consistently racking up top 10s and stays near the front where he’s less likely to crash.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. $9,100
The defending Phoenix champion qualified very low at 26th and makes for a very safe place differential play. He’s sure to navigate his way to the top 10 by the end of the race. The masses will be in on him as always so play him 50% plus if you want to go overweight.
Mid Range Plays
Kasey Kahne $8,400
Kahne’s engine caused a red flag in practice so despite his low starting position of 24th he’ll have to go to the very back of the pack due to him switching to a backup car. Kahne has raced well here and won in 2011, but his car blowing up makes him a little risky.
Kyle Larson $8,300
I’m disappointed Larson qualified so high but he could still make a solid play if he stays near the top 10. He’s great on all of the 1-mile long tracks and has done well at races with this aero package.
Jamie McMurray $7,800
McMurray is in the same boat as Larson with a high qualifying spot. He came 2nd at this race last year but has a mediocre track history outside of that race. I expect him to drift backwards some but he’s cheap enough that a top 15 finish could be a good score for his price.
Chase Elliott $7,700
Chase took a price drop after last week’s crash and hopefully recency bias from that and the Daytona crash will steer people off of him. When he hasn’t crashed, Chase has looked very good early in his career. Playing guys who have been crashing recently can be a good way to gain an edge in gpp and with Hendrick equipment I’m confident Elliott can move up from 17th into the top 15.
Ryan Newman $7,500
Newman is a former winner and races much better here than at most tracks. With a starting spot of 20th and relatively good form with the new package, I expect him to move up and be a decent value play.
Clint Bowyer $7,400
Bowyer’s price still hasn’t dropped despite his form being clearly much worse than last year. Still, he starts way back in 35th and is a good candidate to rise past the scrubs for a top 25 and beyond finish. There’s not a lot of good cheap plays this week so you’re going to have to take chances somewhere.
Low End Plays
Austin Dillon $6,800
Dillon remains well underpriced and should remain a very popular play. He’s coming off a fantastic showing at Las Vegas and has really come into form with the new aero package. He should stay around his 15th starting position and could move into the top 10.
Aric Almirola $6,700
Almirola is another guy who’s excelled with the new aero package and he’s starting next to Dillon. He makes for a similar, but lower ceiling play.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $6,600
Stenhouse looks a lot better this season than last and he’s been qualifying pretty high week to week. He’s qualified in the top 10 again but unlike last week I’m not going to shy away from using him. He was very fast in the first practice and even if he drops 5 or more spots he could finish high enough to be a good value at $6,600.
Ryan Blaney $6,500
Blaney is coming off an impressive top 10 finish at Las Vegas and has looked almost as impressive as Elliott. He qualified high at 12th but similar to Dillon if he hangs on he could be a good value.
Danica Patrick $6,000
There’s not much value down here in the scrub range but Patrick’s price has fallen drastically and she starts almost last place at 36th. She should be able to move past the week to week scrubs and finish around 25th or so. She’s never done well here at Phoenix and she has a thing for DNFs so proceed with caution.
Bottom of the barrel plays:
- Regan Smith
- Michael McDowell
- Michael Annett
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