Today’s theme will be almost exact opposite of yesterday’s. Where yesterday we were picking players in the midst of a pricing dip, today we are picking players pretty firmly off their bottoms and trending back upwards. Don’t let that fool you, there can still be plenty of value in these players provided they are still underpriced compared to their production levels. DFS in general, but specifically NBA, is primarily about finding value in your player picks. There’s just more than one way to skin a cat. Let’s look at today’s starters….
Point Guard – Kyle Lowry ($8900)
Easy to see why Lowry is on an uptick in his salary. He has posted some decent games over his past 10 and exceeded projections in his last 3. But, we feel his high player efficiency rating (PER) and better opponent +/- rating warrants picking him over all similarly priced PGs tonight. He is slightly paced up in a game featuring a 206ish total. And, when compared to Damian Lillard, his range of outcomes runs in a tighter channel……meaning less variance to choosing Lowry.
Shooting Guard – Nicolas Batum ($7000)
Dollar for dollar, Nicolas Batum is perhaps the highest rated player on the board tonight not just at SG. Again, you can see him off his bottom in terms of salary, but $7000 is just way too cheap for him still. He is coming off 3 consecutive 40+ pt performances and is gobbling up minutes like Tic-Tacs. If production stays similar, you are getting an $8000-$8500 player at one crazy discount. He has nearly the same ceiling as Andrew Wiggins but has a MUCH higher floor.
Small Forward – Jeff Green ($5600)
You may think of Jeff Green as more of a GPP play, and you’d be right. However, look at this recent streak. He has exceeded projections 7 of his last 10 and, honestly, 6 of his last 7. Add to that the fact Marc Gasol is gone for awhile and the pending increased usage, and you have room for even more growth…..perhaps for awhile. This is player to keep on your radar through the break. Just tonight alone, his usage projection has jumped from his season levels of 19% to a whopping 26.5%!
Power Forward – Zach Randolph ($6300)
You may feel the record just skipped, but it’s true…..another MEM player. That’s how big the Gasol injury rocked that team. I don’t know where they get Zibo from as a nickname, and I certainly haven’t seen it written to spell it right, but anywhooo he’s in a prime spot to soak up some usage, too. I quoted Green’s usage jump above. Randolph’s is bumping from 21% to 24.5% instantly, as well. Another player trending up in price, but still priced a little low. 50pt ceiling for $6300? Yes please.
Center – DeAndre Jordan ($8500)
I love this pick tonight! Everyone will be trying to cram Boogie Cousins or Pau Gasol into their LUs. I’m not saying those are horrible picks. I’m saying this is an outstanding matchup based on a little DvP that can provide you 60pt upside. 60pt upside is 2nd highest among Centers tonight. Only Boogie has more (70pts). Now that I let the cat out of the bag, look at the salary difference you pay for that 10pts. That’s right….it’s $2100 freakin’ dollars. If you want to pay up for Boogie’s floor, I guess I can’t compete with you here. But, give a guy in a matchup he should dominate and let me avoid having to punt somewhere else in the process and I’m in like Flynn.
Tonight’s theme has been to take a more balanced approach again. While you can pay up well over 10k for the true studs in the slate, you just don’t need to take the risk. The risk being two-fold. One, you have to hit your punts you chose to free up salary. On tonight’s slate that is a VERY tall order. In scouring the bottom of the barrel, there just isn’t anything down there created by an injury or usage bump. Most of those guys are priced higher because the injuries happened awhile back and markets caught up. You literally have to take chances on crappy players that are priced at the bottom because of talent, playing time, inconsistencies in production…..or all three. Your better approach, in our opinion, is to attack tonight’s slate with a more balanced approach. Secondly, your premium players have to hit as well. Studs and scrubs carries with it the inherent risk of having to hit on both ends. Inflated salaries are harder to hit by their very nature also. You have so many options on a 10 game slate that you just don’t need to force any particular player in your LU by sacrificing and guessing.
Like last night, here are your bonus picks…..
GPP of the Night – Karl-Anthony Towns (C – $8700)
If you were to pick a MIN center, who would it be? Dieng, right? Ok, so maybe you didn’t say what I thought you would, but most people will reach for the value here without thinking. Kudos to you for thinking like a GPP player and getting off the herd and going the different direction. Of the two, KAT should be the lower-owned guy.
Stud of the Night – DeMarcus Cousins (C – $10600)
I’m really not going out on a limb with this pick. Boogie is in perhaps the best matchup of the night. He is the chalk play. He has massive upside. PHI has been beyond bad vs bigs. But, the main reason this is your stud play is because of all the 10k+ guys, Boogie is the least likely to throw up a dud performance. Harden? Curry? There are questions surrounding those games that just don’t surround the SAC game. High o/u total and a closer Vegas spread……..yeh, gimme some of that please.
Value of the Night – Stanley Johnson (SF – $4900)
We were all high as kites on him last game out. He dropped a mega dud on us, too. But……nothing at all has changed about him, his situation, him still being underpriced…..nothing. Added to the value is the recency bias of John Q Public who will still harbor resentment towards him. That’s a DFS pro’s window of opportunity to strike. Be a pro!
Fade of the Night – Steph Curry (PG – $10800)
I’m going to go all cliche text on you here…….L…..O……L. This one takes balls big enough to ride a freight train. As Keith said, “Are you ready, Chop? This one is NOT for the faint of heart.” I have to agree. Fading Curry? Have you lost your flipping mind? The bottom line: Of all the 10k+ studs, Curry is the most likely to fail to reach expectation. He carries the highest risk of dud of the premiums. Just avoid. You’ll thank Keith later.
This will be the last write-up containing players for the break. Tomorrow only has 2 games if I remember correctly. My plan/goal over break is to bust up some player models and bring you some definitive teaching concepts from the inside of the stats you look at each day. We may talk a little LU construction, but as I dive into our new projections and models to bring you the best content, I feel it’s important to explain why a particular stat can be so vital. So, like the big dude said before he busted up his hand breaking Marty McFly out of the trunk………Don’t nobody go nowhere.
Dismissed.